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Hotline's Wake-Up Call! / WAKE UP CALL

House Farm Bill Failure Clouds Immigration Prospects; Markey Leads by 20 Points in New Poll

June 21, 2013

Wake-Up Call! is Hotline's daily morning briefing on campaigns and elections. Click here to subscribe.

WHAT'S NEWS

  • After two years of negotiations, the House farm bill went down to defeat by a vote of 195-234 (National Journal Daily). The vote "was the latest rebuke to House GOP leaders, who have struggled to muster enough control of the chamber to pass major legislation," and it "also bodes ill for legislation on the budget and immigration that is expected to be debated in the House this summer and fall" (Washington Post).
  • The DNC raised nearly $5.9M in May, spent $5.2M and had $6M CoH and nearly $20M in debt. The RNC raised $7.5M in May, spent nearly $6.5M and had $10.8M CoH at month's end (Hotline reporting). The NRSC announced it raised $3.6M in May, ending the month with $7.1M CoH and $8M in debt (Roll Call). The NRCC raised $4.7M in May and had $9.5M in CoH and $4.75M in debt at the end of last month (Roll Call).
  • MA SEN Special: A new UMass Lowell-Boston Herald poll of special election LVs, conducted 6/15-19 by RKM Research & Comm., shows Rep. Edward Markey (D) leading ex-Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez (R), 56-36% (release). "Requests for absentee ballots" in next Tuesday's special election "have slipped" 22% from the '10 special, and Sec/State William Galvin's (D) office "said he was 'extremely concerned' about the level of voter participation in the race" (Boston Globe). Ex-Sen. Scott Brown (R) "will appear an election-eve rally" for Gomez in Quincy (Boston Globe).
  • KY SEN: Federal prosecutors "are now part of a high-profile criminal investigation into the secret taping" at Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell's (R) "campaign headquarters in Louisville" (Politico).
  • IL-13: Montgomery Co. GOP Chair Jim Allen "resigned under fire Thursday after sending an emailed diatribe in which he called" ex-Miss America Erika Harold (R) "a political 'street walker,' giving the GOP its latest public-relations headache in the realms of race and gender" (St. Louis Post-Dispatch).
  • TX Redistricting: The state House "preliminarily passed out a set of three redistricting maps after several hours of debate Thursday." Bills covering the state's cong., state House and state Senate maps "will need to pass" the House "one more time, a usually perfunctory vote, before they get sent to" Gov. Rick Perry (R) (Austin American-Statesman).
  • GA: "State GOP leaders plan to vote Saturday whether to take a first step away from the summer primaries that elect the party’s nominee and toward allowing a convention of party insiders to choose" the candidates for statewide and federal offices (Atlanta Journal-Constitution).
  • WH '16: Ex-VT Gov. Howard Dean (D), "who electrified anti-war liberals during" his WH '04 bid, "said Thursday he would consider another run" (CNN).

OUR CALL

Hotline editors weigh in on the stories that drive the day

A tale of two districts: House Ag Cmte ranking member Collin Peterson (D-MN) is hailed as the tragic hero in morning papers that cover his district today, while chairman Frank Lucas (R-OK) suffered a "stinging defeat" in his local paper. Adding to Lucas's woes: Conservative outside groups have been shopping for a primary challenger in his northwestern OK district. He just spent political capital and didn't get a return on the investment.

• Galvin is warning of low turnout in next week's MA special, but it's not likely not affect the final outcome. Though the new UMass Lowell-Herald poll shows Markey with a larger lead than other public surveys, pollsters did conduct an interesting experiment with different turnout models: Markey leads by 21 points among all RVs, 21 points in a higher-turnout model and 20 points in a more-restrictive, lower-turnout model that is being emphasized in today's Herald. We'd love to see more pollsters try similar research -- especially those working with media partners through whom they can accurately explain their experimentation to a horserace-focused public.

• A few AZ Dems could have fewer candidates opposing them in 2014 -- and that might be bad news for them. Libertarian candidates won over 6% as Dem Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Kyrsten Sinema each won with less than 50% in 2012, and new ballot access rules will make it harder for third-party candidates to qualify. Those wouldn't be guaranteed GOP votes in a two-way race, but it certainly can't make things easier for Dems.

 

HAIR OF THE DOG

    "Otter Butler Would Like To Fetch You A Drink" (Buzzfeed)

FRESH BREWED BUZZ

  • "The corruption investigation that has roiled" DC politics for two years "has uncovered a highly organized operation inside an accounting firm that funneled illegal contributions to scores of political campaigns," including DC Mayor Vincent Gray (D), Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) and then-Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA). Federal prosecutors "appear to be methodically building a case against" the firm's former CEO, Jeffrey Thompson (Washington Post).
  • "Sen. Jackson claims to be for the people, but he's the first one to give it to the people without providing Vaseline" -- ME Gov. Paul LePage (R), on Sen. Troy Jackson (D), who criticized LePage's budget proposal. Asked later Thursday if he "he knew these comments would be viewed as offensive by some people, LePage replied, "Good. It ought to, because I've been taking it for two years" (WMTW-TV).
  • "A federal criminal complaint filed this week" in Albany, NY, charged that "self-proclaimed Ku Klux Klansman" Glen Crawford "was planning to use a radiation-emitting device to attack a Muslim organization, a political party and 'a political figure,'" whom sources have identified as NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) (New York Daily News).
  • Rep. Aaron Schock (R-IL) is launching a new fundraising effort aimed at helping younger GOP lawmakers, and boosting his profile as a rainmaker (National Journal).
  • "A Yahoo News analysis of the 444 briefings" that WH press sec. Jay Carney has held "has identified 13 distinct strains in the way he dodges a reporter's question" (Yahoo! News).
  • Ex-Daily Beast DC bureau chief Howard Kurtz said Thursday that he's leaving CNN, where he has hosted "Reliable Sources" for 15 years, and "jumping to Fox News Channel" (Fox News).
  • IL state Rep. Barbara Wheeler (R) "is hosting a 'Teeni Weeni Bikini Martini party' to raise funds for her campaign, with tickets for party-goers who don a one-piece selling for $250, while those who come in a little bikini must pay $500 and tickets for Speedo-wearers are priced at" $1K (U.S. News & World Report).
  • "From the amount of obesity in this country, by people we're told do not have enough to eat, it does seem like we can have a debate about this issue without allegations about wanting to slap down or starve children" -- Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX), on funding for food stamps in the House-rejected farm bill (National Journal).

SWIZZLE CHALLENGE

  • PGA Tour golfers have lost 3,284 golf balls at TPC Southwind (Memphis), 2,152 at TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra Beach, FL) and 2,117 at Redstone Golf Club (Humble, TX).
  • The winner is Eric Halstrom, and here's his Swizzle Challenge: "The NBA finals are now over, but the second half of baseball is about to begin. Which team is the only MLB team in history to make the playoffs with a losing record, in what year, and what was their record?" The 4th correct e-mailer gets to submit the next question.

NJ'S EARLY BIRD SPECIALS

SHOT...

"#Gallup finds that 7 in 10 Americans hate their job. Here's my Executive Assistant's response: pic.twitter.com/n233BLMqC7" -- Businessman Herman Cain (R) (Twitter).

...CHASER

"I said, 'Why are you doing this? You know I have a boyfriend!' He said: 'You want a job, don't you?'" -- Ex-Cain employee Sharon Bialek, who alleges that Cain sexually assaulted her in '97 (Slate)

Reid Wilson, Editor-in-Chief

Steven Shepard, Executive Editor

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