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Roberts Ad to Hit Wolf Over X-Rays; Wolf Leads PA GOV Primary Poll; Gray Tops D.C. Mayoral Race Poll Roberts Ad to Hit Wolf Over X-Rays; Wolf Leads PA GOV Primary Poll; Gr...

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Hotline's Wake-Up Call!

Roberts Ad to Hit Wolf Over X-Rays; Wolf Leads PA GOV Primary Poll; Gray Tops D.C. Mayoral Race Poll

February 26, 2014

Wake-Up Call! is Hotline's daily morning briefing on campaigns and elections. Click here to subscribe.

WHAT'S NEWS

  • In GA SEN, Rep. Paul Broun (R) released a TV ad touting state Democrats' attacks on him, saying he's the only GOP candidate against whom they've run ads. "The Democratic Party is attacking me for one reason," Broun says in the ad. "I'm the strongest conservative running for the U.S. Senate." (release)
  • In KS SEN, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) "will go on the air Wednesday afternoon with a blistering ad against" physician Milton Wolf (R). The ad's narrator says that "Wolf exposed private patient X-rays and other personal information on Facebook — where Wolf relentlessly poked fun at the dead or wounded," and closes by asking: "If Milton Wolf is so irresponsible as a doctor, how can he possibly be trusted as a U.S. senator?" Roberts has so far reserved $95,000 for the ad in three markets "for a 10-day cable flight." (Politico)
  • In KY SEN, Bill Clinton "packed a crowd of more than 1,200 people into a Galt House ballroom on Tuesday to raise money and boost" Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes's (D) "campaign. During a 25-minute speech, he alternately praised Grimes, the daughter of his longtime friend Jerry Lundergan, and took shots at" Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. (Louisville Courier-Journal)
  • In NE SEN, Omaha banker Sid Dinsdale (R) "is spending $15,000 to introduce himself to Fox News viewers, starting with an ad Wednesday night." (Omaha World-Herald)
  • In the FL-13 Special, former lobbyist David Jolly (R) "stresses that, unlike longtime Hillsborough County resident" and former state CFO Alex Sink (D), "he's a true Pinellas County resident and has been a full-time resident since buying a 950-square-foot Indian Shores condo in late, 2005. But tax records in Washington D.C. show that in 2007 Jolly applied for and received a homestead exemption on his Washington D.C. home. Declaring that as his principal residence would have saved Jolly $528 in taxes in Washington - while he was simultaneously receiving a homestead exemption in Pinellas County." Jolly's statement: "We bought the DC house in 2007, the closing paperwork incorrectly homesteaded us. I wrote a letter to DC property appraiser when I noticed the error and the homestead exemption was rescinded." (Tampa Bay Times)
  • Also in FL-13, the DCCC released a new ad attacking Jolly for siding with insurance companies and special interests on health care. (Tampa Bay Times)
  • In MI-12, Wayne State University Board of Governors chairwoman Debbie Dingell (D) "plans to run for the seat being vacated by her husband," Rep. John Dingell (D), according to "two senior Democratic strategists on Capitol Hill familiar with her plans. ... She will begin her campaign as the clear front-runner to succeed her husband." (Washington Post)
  • In PA GOV, a new Franklin & Marshall College poll of Democratic RVs, conducted Feb. 18-23, finds businessman Tom Wolf (D) leads Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D), 36-9%, while Treasurer Rob McCord (D) is at 3% and former Department of Environmental Protection secretaries Katie McGinty (D) and John Hanger (D) are each at 1%. 48% of respondents said they were undecided. (release)
  • Also in PA GOV, a new Quinnipiac University poll of RVs, conducted Feb. 19-24, shows Gov. Tom Corbett (R) trailing Hanger, 40-37%; McCord, 43-36%; McGinty, 40-38%; Schwartz, 44-38%; Wagner, 44-37%; and Wolf, 52-33%. (release)
  • In the D.C. mayoral race, a new WRC-TV/WAMU-FM/Washington Informer/Marist poll of Democratic primary LVs, conducted Feb. 17-23, finds Mayor Vincent Gray in the lead with 28%, compared to 20% for Councilmember Muriel Bowser, 13% for Councilmember Jack Evans, 12% for Councilmember Tommy Wells, 6% for restaurateur Andy Shallal, 4% for Councilmember Vincent Orange and 3% for former State Department official Reta Lewis. (WAMU-FM)

OUR CALL

Hotline editors weigh in on the stories that drive the day

• Wolf's rise in Pennsylvania comes amid a barrage of TV ad spending. He just released his fifth TV ad this week, while the other candidates have been dark. The F&M poll shows a majority of primary voters have seen one of his TV ads, and Wolf is at 56% among those voters, a full 50 points clear of Schwartz. Among those who haven't, though, Wolf is at 11%, a close second to Schwartz's 13%. As the other candidates hit the airwaves, Wolf's advantage should erode somewhat. But the $10 million he's sunk into his campaign means that Wolf's strategy isn't just early TV ads, it's a consistent assault through the May 20 primary. -- Steven Shepard

 

• Forget, at least for the moment, about what impact the Wisconsin email release might have on Scott Walker's presidential prospects. We've been saying this for a long time, and it remains true: The biggest obstacle facing Walker in 2016 is his gubernatorial reelection race in 2014, in which he is favored but far from safe against well-funded Democrat Mary Burke. In each of the last two midterms, a major GOP presidential possibility has crashed and burned (Charlie Crist in 2010, George Allen in 2006). Walker's recall victory in 2012 shows his resiliency, but the fact remains that Wisconsin is too polarized for him to ever be very far from danger. -- Scott Bland

HAIR OF THE DOG

FRESH BREWED BUZZ

  • Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) "is likely to veto the state's controversial measure that could allow businesses to refuse service to gay and lesbians due to religious beliefs. ... Brewer is receiving pressure from the state's GOP-dominated legislature, which widely approved the legislation. But there's fear -- expressed in letters from the state's top business interests -- that Arizona would face an economic backlash if the measure is approved, similar to what happened after the governor's approval of the state's controversial immigration law in 2010." Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Jeff Flake (R-AZ) "also have urged the governor to veto the bill." (NBC News)
  • "I welcome him back. ... The last time he ran in 1996 he eked out a narrow victory in Kentucky, while I beat the current governor by 160,000 votes, 10 points. In 2008, both Bill and Hillary Clinton came to town, including the day before the election, and I won by 100,000 votes. So I welcome President Clinton back to Kentucky. Every time he's come its been really good for me." -- McConnell, on Clinton campaigning for Grimes in Kentucky (Roll Call)
  • Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) "said last fall he wouldn't raise money for a controversial group attacking fellow Republicans." But Cruz "has since written a fundraising missive for ... the lower-profile Madison Project, a political action committee working to defeat McConnell," Roberts and Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS), "and prop up other primary challengers in 2014 midterm races. ... While Cruz doesn't single out any candidate by name, he praised the group for recruiting 'viable conservative candidates' and pushing them through 'every single step of the pathway to victory' in 2014." (Politico)
  • 2012 TX SEN candidate/former college football analyst Craig James (R) "is complaining to the state that his firing by Fox Sports Southwest was an act of religious discrimination. ... In a statement issued Tuesday ... James alleges a national Fox Sports spokesman told The Dallas Morning News that James was terminated from Fox Sports Southwest for religious beliefs against same-sex marriage." (AP)
  • "I can talk, my team can talk here in Washington, but it's not going to make as much of a difference as if you are out there making the case. The work you're doing is God's work. It is hard work." -- Obama, speaking at an Organizing for Action event on Tuesday (Politico)
  • "In a double-header of celebrity cameos, Ben Affleck and Seth Rogen are scheduled to testify before Congress, Mr. Affleck before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (on the prospects for peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo) and Mr. Rogen before a panel of the Senate Appropriations Committee (on the economic impact of Alzheimer's disease)" on Wednesday. (New York Times)
  • "I told the president, next game, I've got him. I may be a white boy, but I can jump." -- Vice President Biden, to former NBA star and Sacramento Mayor Kevin Johnson (D) at a Black History Month event in Washington on Tuesday (Washington Post)
  • Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) will co-host a fundraiser for Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) in April. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) will also attend. (New Hampshire Union Leader)
  • Former President George W. Bush "will be showing off his new painting hobby at his presidential library in Dallas starting in April. ... The exhibit is called 'The Art of Leadership: A President’s Personal Diplomacy.'" (Los Angeles Times)
  • "I'm sorry, I'm losing you. We have a technical difficulty." -- New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), responding jokingly to a question about running for president in 2016 in an appearance on Fox Business Network (New York Observer)

PLAY OF THE DAY!

What does Ukraine mean for America in 2014? 2016?

ROOSTER'S CROW

  • A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. (until noon)
  • Today's weather, from the National Weather Service: Snow this morning, then sunny with scattered flurries this afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 2-4 inches. Highs in the mid 30s. Southwest winds 10-15 mph, becoming northwest this afternoon.
  • The Senate reconvenes at 9:30 a.m., while the House is back at 10 a.m.
  • Obama delivers remarks to announce a new competition encouraging investments to create jobs and restore infrastructure in St. Paul, Minn. (2:05 p.m)
  • Attorney General Eric Holder delivers remarks at a Black History Month event to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. (U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, 4:30 p.m.)
  • WAMU-FM hosts the Democratic candidates in the D.C. mayoral race for a debate. (7 p.m.)
  • No. 12 Virginia hosts Miami (FL) (Comcast SportsNet, 7 p.m.)
  • Have an event for us to highlight? Email us!

SWIZZLE CHALLENGE

  • 240 members of Congress has served for 30 years or more.
  • No one answered correctly. Here's today's Swizzle Challenge: "Shirley Temple, who passed away earlier this month, was best known as an actress, but she also once ran unsuccessfully for Congress. Name the district she ran in and who she lost to." The 3rd correct e-mailer gets to submit the next question.

NJ'S EARLY BIRD SPECIALS

SHOT...

"Buddy Carter's new TV ad is hypocritical as can be expected from a professional politician like him. He claims to be against ObamaCare but in his opening campaign kickoff speech he said ObamaCare is not so bad." -- GA-01 candidate Bob Johnson (R), on his primary opponent's first TV ad (ZPolitics)

...CHASER

"What did he say?" -- "King Louis XVI"

"He said, 'The poor ain't so bad.'" -- "Mademoiselle Rimbaud"

"'The poor ain't so bad?'" Huh, you're lucky he's still alive!" -- "King Louis XVI" in Mel Brooks's History of the World: Part I, after Rimbaud's father has been thrown in prison for making an offhand remark at a party

Adam Wollner, Editor

Steven Shepard, Editor-in-Chief

CORRECTION: Monday's Wake-Up Call! incorrectly referred to Americans for Prosperity as a Republican organization. AFP, in compliance with federal tax law, is officially nonpartisan.

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