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- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is expected to introduce a bill Tuesday that would raise the debt limit through the 2014 midterm elections, according to Democratic Senate aides. A procedural vote on the motion could come Friday or Saturday. (National Journal Daily)
- "The Democratic push on the debt limit came as a partial government shutdown entered its second week with no solution in sight." (Washington Post)
- According to several high-ranking Republican aides, the House GOP leadership on Tuesday morning will inform lawmakers of its plan to continue passing individual funding bills to reopen specific areas of the federal government. On a separate track, the House majority will pursue a roughly one-month increase in the debt limit that includes dollar-for-dollar spending cuts. (National Journal)
- The Supreme Court on Tuesday morning will hear arguments in McCutcheon v. FEC, which could strike "limits on contributions by the biggest individual donors to political campaigns," in "a test of the Roberts court's readiness to take its most aggressive swipe at campaign finance laws since its Citizens United decision in 2010 took the lid off independent spending by corporations and labor unions." (AP)
- In the LA-05 Special, state Sen. Neil Riser (R) outraised the field during the pre-general fundraising period (July 1-Sept. 29) with a $561,000 haul and $210,000 on hand. Former Rep. Clyde Holloway (R) raised $246,000 and had $145,000 on hand. State Rep. Jay Morris (R) raised $271,000 and had $188,000 on hand. (Hotline reporting)
- A new Christopher Newport University poll of VA GOV LVs, conducted Oct. 1-6, shows former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R), 47-38%, with Robert Sarvis at 8%. (release)
- A new Suffolk University/Boston Herald poll of Boston mayoral LVs, conducted Oct. 3-6, shows city Councilor John Connelly leading state Rep. Martin Walsh (D), 41-34%. (release) Walsh's campaign "is poised to receive an injection of support on Tuesday from" city Councilor Felix Arroyo and nonprofit executive John Barros, the fourth- and fifth-place finishers in the preliminary election, respectively. (Boston Globe)
- In the MA-05 Special, state Sen. Katherine Clark (D) launched her third TV ad. (Medford Transcript)
- In AR SEN, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) responded to Rep. Tom Cotton's (R) ad on the government shutdown with a TV spot of his own. (release)
- In GA SEN, Rep. Jack Kingston (R) "will report Tuesday that he raised slightly more than $800,000 in the third quarter and has $2.9 million cash on hand." (Politico)
- In KS SEN, physician Milton Wolf (R), who has been considering a primary campaign against Sen. Pat Roberts (R), will make a "major announcement" related to the race Tuesday night in Overland Park. (Hotline reporting)
- In FL-26, Miami-Dade School Board member Carlos Curbelo (R) raised "over" $450,000 in the third quarter and has $420,000 cash on hand. (Miami Herald)
- In MI-03, businessman Brian Ellis (R) will announce Tuesday morning that he is challenging Rep. Justin Amash (R) in next year's primary, arguing that "Amash has turned his back on our conservative principles" by opposing House GOP budgets and voting "present" on building the Keystone XL pipeline. (Hotline reporting)
- In NE-02, Omaha city Councilman Pete Festersen (D), who "disappointed Democrats when he announced he would not run" for the seat in August, "opened the door Monday to reconsidering his earlier decision ... in the wake of Rep. Lee Terry's (R) "controversial comments over his paycheck and the federal shutdown." (Omaha World-Herald)
- In WV-02, former state Democratic Party chairman Nick Casey (D) raised "more than" $150,000 in the third quarter and has "more than $518,000 cash on hand." (Charleston Daily Mail)
- Georgia state Sen. Jason Carter (D), grandson of Jimmy Carter, "has commissioned a poll to 'test the political environment, given recent events,' for a 2014" GA GOV run. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
- Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) "added nearly $750,000 to his campaign fund" during the third quarter, "state records showed Monday." Among Republican candidates, businessman Bruce Rauner (R) "took in far more campaign cash in large contributions this summer than his three primary opponents." (Chicago Tribune)
- Madison School Board member Mary Burke (D) announced Monday she will run for WI GOV, launching a web video early Monday, then addressing reporters Monday night before a school board meeting in Madison. (Wisconsin State Journal)
Hotline editors weigh in on the stories that drive the day
• Cotton and Pryor's early skirmishes over Obamacare and the government shutdown in the AR SEN race will be significant in determining the political impact of the showdown. The battle for a Senate majority is being fought predominantly in the South (Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia), and Republicans feel like they have the upper hand here.
• Indeed, all politics is local for Obamacare. The law's implementation, especially in the form of new insurance exchanges, is pushing strategists on both sides to go local and play off the law's state-by-state effects instead of playing off voters' pre-existing attitudes. What happens in Washington will be less important to Obamacare's 2014 role than local news coverage featuring stories about employee hours cut, new insurance offerings, or raised or lowered premium costs. More likely than not, each party will be able to press an advantage in different states.
• Citizens United is weighing in on GA SEN, endorsing Rep. Paul Broun (R), in the hopes of consolidating the tea party vote, which could otherwise split between Broun and Phil Gingrey. Broun has never been a strong fundraiser and Gingrey had more than six times Broun's cash on-hand at the end of the second quarter. If Broun's third quarter report is anything like the last two, he'll need plenty of help early on if he's going to make it through the May primary.
HAIR OF THE DOG
"Newest addition to Mayor's Office not yet potty-trained" (Omaha World-Herald)
FRESH BREWED BUZZ
- "Shutdown exposes depth of rift between GOP lawmakers" (Washington Post)
- "I fully understand that my constituents are not going to agree with me on every vote I cast. Hell, my wife doesn't even agree with me on every vote I cast." -- Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA) (New York Times)
- "The people of Washington didn't want this and aren't to blame for it, either. ... America, you sent these guys here. They represent plenty of you, none of us. That imported brand of cuckoo is what's causing this government shutdown." -- Washington Post Metro columnist Petula Dvorak (Washington Post)
- Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), "who will be 79 in November, underwent quadruple-bypass surgery at St. John Medical Center" in Tulsa over the weekend. Inhofe: "I went in for a routine colonoscopy that everyone gets and was sent to the hospital instead for open-heart surgery. The doctors said, 'Your colon is perfect, but your heart is what we are worried about.'" (Tulsa World)
- "I'm going to attempt to download every movie ever made, and you're going to try to sign up for Obamacare, and we'll see which happens first." -- Jon Stewart, hosting Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius on his show Monday night ("Daily Show")
- New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) "will ring in his 56th birthday" on Dec. 3 "with a gala and performance by Billy Joel, a longtime family friend who has been spending a lot of time with the governor lately." (New York Daily News)
- The San Francisco Chronicle posed "eight baldness questions" to California Gov. Jerry Brown (D), and Brown "answered two of the eight questions in Latin." (San Francisco Chronicle)
- Today's weather, from the National Weather Service: Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
- The House and Senate both return at 10 a.m.
- The Supreme Court hears oral arguments in the McCutcheon case. (10 a.m.)
- Ocean Spray holds a photo opportunity over the next two days, featuring a 2,000-lb. "cranberry bog" harvest replica and grower-owners to share "the taste, health and heritage of this uniquely American fruit." (Union Station)
- The Tigers and Rays look to extend their ALDS lives to fifth games when they host the Athletics and Red Sox, respectively. (TBS, 5 p.m.)
- In NJ GOV, Gov. Chris Christie (R) and state Sen. Barbara Buono (D) debate for the first time. (WCBS-TV/KYW-TV, 7 p.m.)
- Have an event for us to highlight? Email us!
- Former Giants QB Jesse Palmer once appeared on ABC's "The Bachelor."
- The winner is Quinn McCord, and here's his Swizzle Challenge: "There are 5 sitting governors who have attempted to run for the U.S. Senate at some point in their careers, but never succeeded, not counting Matt Mead's attempt to get the appointment to Craig Thomas' seat. Name 4 of the 5." The 1st correct e-mailer gets to submit the next question.
NJ'S EARLY BIRD SPECIALS
- Everything About Obamacare Politics Is About to Change
- Poll: Don't Tie Shutdown to Obamacare Funding
- Republicans Could Be Weakening Their Party's Future
- Why Is Paul Ryan So Quiet on Shutdown?
- Protecting Those Who Stopped the Paychecks
"Steve [Lonegan]'s changing the Republican Party the way Elvis changed rock and roll." -- NJ SEN nominee Steve Lonegan (R) strategist Rick Shaftan (PolitickerNJ.com)
"I don't think [George H.W.] Bush would have liked Elvis very much." -- Bill Clinton, in 1992, after Bush said, "I finally figured out why [Clinton] compares himself to Elvis. The minute he has to take a stand on something, he starts wiggling." (New York Times)
Josh Kraushaar, Editor-in-Chief
Steven Shepard, Executive Editor
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