Sophie Quinton | November 8, 2012
President Obama and his staff have been tight-lipped about possible changes to the Cabinet in a second term. But if history is a guide, Obama’s team could see substantial turnover this year: on average, in the five two-term presidencies since World War II, only one of two Cabinet officers have stayed for eight years. Some on the team, such as Education Secretary Arne Duncan, have already publicly said they’ll stick around. Others, including Veterans Affairs Secretary Eric Shinseki, have been more opaque: last summer Shinseki told The New York Times he will “serve at the pleasure of the president.”