Among white men without a college education, the Quinnipiac survey found Obama attracting just 33 percent, almost identical to the 32 percent in the Next America poll. That's similar to the results released in other recent national surveys and a significant decline from the already meager 39 percent of those men Obama won in 2008. (Since 1988, the worst showing for Democrats among those men was Al Gore's 34 percent in 2000.)
Among white men with a college education, the two surveys report similar results as well: Obama wins 41 percent of them in the Next America poll and 39 percent in the Quinnipiac survey. In each case, that's within the range of the other recent national surveys, and down only slightly from his 42 percent showing with those well-educated men last time.
The new polls diverge more on the sentiment among the so-called waitress moms, white women without a college education. Obama won 41 percent of them last time and attracted exactly the same level of support with them in the Next America poll; Quinnipiac shows him falling to just 32 percent with those women, a lower level than any of the other recent surveys (which showed him drawing between 37 percent and 46 percent of their votes). That is well below the Democrats' weakest showing among those women since 1988, Bill Clinton's 39 percent in the three-way race of 1992.
In both of the new surveys, Obama retains majority support among white women with a college education-the sole quadrant of the white population that provided him a majority in 2008. Last time, Obama won 52 percent of those women. Quinnipiac puts him exactly at that level again, and Next America shows him drawing 55 percent of them. Each of the other recent national polls except the first Gallup tracking poll has found Obama capturing a majority of those women.
The Next America and Quinnipiac surveys produce similar results on all non-white voters as well; Next America shows him winning 76 percent of them, and Quinnipiac puts the number at 77 percent. That's also very close to the findings in the other national surveys examined by National Journal and when are undecided are considered puts Obama on track to matching (within a few points either way) his 2008 showing with minorities. Like some other recent state and national surveys, the Quinnipiac poll finds a big gender gap among minorities, with Obama capturing over four-in-five minority women, but only just over two-thirds of minority men.
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