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Analysis: Tracking the Growth of the Minority-Voter Share by State Analysis: Tracking the Growth of the Minority-Voter Share by Stat... Analysis: Tracking the Growth of the Minority-Voter Share by State Analysis: Tracking the Gr...

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The Next America - Politics 2012 / Politics

Analysis: Tracking the Growth of the Minority-Voter Share by State

In this Oct. 26, 2012 photo, Spanish language election campaign signs promoting President Barack Obama hang on the windows at Lechonera El Barrio Restaurant in Orlando, Fla. The sign reads "We are united. Hispanics for Obama." Democrats and Republicans are making an unprecedented effort to get the vote of Puerto Ricans living in the Interstate 4 Corridor, a large area in Central Florida. (AP Photo/Julie Fletcher)(AP Photo/Julie Fletcher)

photo of Doris Nhan
November 12, 2012
Alabama- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (35%)
White share (65%)
Alaska- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (22%)
White share (78%)
Arizona- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (25%)
White share (75%)
Arkansas- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (17%)
White share (83%)
California- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (37%)
White share (63%)
California- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (37%)
White share (63%)
Colorado- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (19%)
White share (81%)
Connecticut- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (22%)
White share (78%)
Delaware- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (23%)
White share (77%)
District of Columbia- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (65%)
White share (35%)
Florida- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (29%)
White share (71%)
Georgia- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (35%)
White share (65%)
Hawaii- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (59%)
White share (41%)
Idaho- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (10%)
White share (90%)
Idaho- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (10%)
White share (90%)
Illinois- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (27%)
White share (73%)
Indiana- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (12%)
White share (88%)
Iowa- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (9%)
White share (91%)
Kansas- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (10%)
White share (90%)
Kentucky- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (15%)
White share (85%)
Louisiana- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (35%)
White share (65%)
Maine- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (4%)
White share (96%)
Maryland- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (36%)
White share (64%)
Massachusetts- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (21%)
White share (79%)
Michigan- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (18%)
White share (82%)
Michigan- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (18%)
White share (82%)
Minnesota- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (10%)
White share (90%)
Mississippi- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (38%)
White share (62%)
Missouri- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (18%)
White share (82%)
Montana- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (10%)
White share (90%)
Nebraska- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (8%)
White share (92%)
Nevada- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (31%)
White share (69%)
New Hampshire- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (6%)
White share (94%)
New Jersey- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (27%)
White share (73%)
New Mexico- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (50%)
White share (50%)
New York- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (29%)
White share (71%)
North Carolina- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (28%)
White share (72%)
North Dakota- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (8%)
White share (92%)
Ohio- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (17%)
White share (83%)
Oklahoma- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (18%)
White share (82%)
Oregon- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (11%)
White share (89%)
Pennsylvania- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (19%)
White share (81%)
Rhode Island- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (17%)
White share (83%)
South Carolina- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (29%)
White share (71%)
South Dakota- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (10%)
White share (90%)
Tennessee- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (16%)
White share (84%)
Texas- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (37%)
White share (63%)
Texas- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (37%)
White share (63%)
Utah- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (10%)
White share (90%)
Vermont- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (5%)
White share (95%)
Virginia- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (30%)
White share (70%)
West Virginia- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (6%)
White share (94%)
Wisconsin- Voted Obama
Nonwhite share (11%)
White share (89%)
Wyoming- Voted McCain
Nonwhite share (9%)
White share (91%)

View 2008 nonwhite voter share | View 2012 nonwhite voter share

The coalition that supported President Obama in his first term came roaring back last week, helping to reelect him as well as affirming years of speculation and analysis by experts who see the shifting demographics as the future of the U.S.

At the Next America, we seek to analyze the growing faces of the minority who are expected to become the majority by 2050. National Journal’s Ronald Brownstein wrote in an analysis that this “election will likely be remembered as a milestone in which the United States suddenly realized that, socially and demographically, it was a very different place.”

 

Indeed, deeper analysis show that although voters of color nationwide cast just 28 percent of the vote, they played a significant role in helping Obama win. Without this coalition, Obama would have lost upward of 15 states--a total of 242 electoral votes--and certainly the election. Instead, he secured 332 Electoral College votes, to Mitt Romney's 206. A winner must receive 270.

In four years since the last election, the share of the minority vote grew 2 percentage points from 2008; during that time, the nation's minority population rose by 3 points, to 37 percent.

California saw the most growth in voter share, increasing by 8 percentage points, and other states like New Jersey and Washington saw similar increases. On the other hand, states such as Massachusetts and Alabama experienced drops in share of minority voters.

Obama's support among the Latino and the Asian-American coalitions, the fastest-growing racial/ethnic groups in the nation, surged. In 2008, Latinos backed Obama by 67 percent to 31 percent; last Tuesday, it was 71-27. The incumbent also won huge numbers of Asian-Americans, enjoying a boost of more than 10 percentage points: 73 percent to 26 percent, compared with 62-35 in 2008. In addition, African-American support for the president remained strong at 93 percent to 6 percent, compared with 95-4 in 2008.

Comparative data for all 50 states are not available because exit polls in 2012 were largely conducted in larger states, especially those considred battlegrounds.

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