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After five hours of voting and with more than 1,400 ballots cast, The Hotline SRLC Straw Poll has come to a close with a tremendous turnout. Sen. Bill Frist (TN) led the pack with nearly 37% of the vote, followed by MA Gov. Mitt Romney with 14%. Sen. George Allen (VA) was tied for third place with Pres. Bush (10%), despite Bush being a write-in candidate.

Hotline Straw Poll Unofficial Results
Candidate             Raw          %age
Bill Frist            526          36.9%
Mitt Romney           205          14.4
George Allen          147          10.3
Pres. Bush (write in) 147          10.3
John McCain            66           4.6
Mike Huckabee          54           3.8
Write In (Not GB/CR)   43           3.0
George Pataki          38           2.7
Condi Rice (write in)  32           2.2
Sam Brownback          22           1.5
Rudy Giuliani          15           1.1
Newt Gingrich          13           0.9
Chuck Hagel             3           0.2

2nd Choices Of Frist Voters (%age Only)
George Allen                  18.4%
Mitt Romney                   12.0
Rudy Giuliani                 12.0
John McCain                   10.6
Pres. Bush (write in)          7.0
Mike Huckabee                  4.0
Newt Gingrich                  3.4
Sam Brownback                  2.7
Condi Rice (write in)          2.1
Chuck Hagel                    1.0
George Pataki                  0.8
None                          24.1
Other                          3.0

Some notable info from the unofficial results:
Total ballots cast now:                        1427
Total non-spoiled ballots cast:                1311
Total ballots cast in '98:                      858
Spoiled ballots                                 116 (8.1%)
Total TN voters:                                742 (52%)
Number of Frist's votes outside TN:              97
Percent of Frist's votes from TN:                82%
# Of TN voters who did not choose Frist first:   313 (42%)

Among the 526 voters who made Frist their top choice, Allen was the leading second-place vote getter with 18.4%. He was followed by Romney (12%), ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (10.8%), John McCain (10.6%), Bush (7.0%) and AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (3.4%). Nearly one in four Frist voters, though, indicated no second-place preference. With more than a 66% increase in voter turnout from the ’98 SRLC straw poll, these results set the stage for the GOP WH battle that lies ahead. Stay tuned to The Hotline and On Call throughout the week for continued results, methodological notes and insider analysis. >

3/11: Michigan Primary Moving Up? Could Michigan being moving up the 2008 primary calendar? MI GOP Chair Saul Anuzis is optimistic that Michigan will join South Carolina on the first Tuesday of Feb. in the 2008 presidential primary season. Others familiar with the situation aren't as optimistic about Michigan moving up as there may not be 100% agreement in either party to go along with this. What we do know is that there is a concerted effort by some in Michigan to move up the primary (possibly even get the state to sanction and pay for it) to the kickoff of the non-IA-NH primary window. This has ramifications for both sides of the presidential aisle if suddenly South Carolina isn't the non-NH kickoff state. Diluting that day with more primaries could actually enchance the importance of IA (a la 2004) and decrease the importance, of well, every other state. News of this possibility is leaking out just as the DNC primary calendar commission is meeting right now in DC. As we learn more, we'll let you know.

3/10: On a weekend billed to be the beginning of the post-Bush WH, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) let an increasing Bush weary party know that he, for one, is not tired of defending the president. McCain, who repeated the phrase, "the president did exactly the right thing" when discussing a variety of recent controversies, offered a new brand of straight talk. But the straight talk, he said was not for 2008 -- it was all about 2006. Encouraging the audience not to get wrapped up in 2008, McCain said the group should be focused on the congressional elections in November, which is interesting since he highlighted areas where GOPers are vulnerable and have tried to steer away from Bush, specifically Social security, Iraq, the port issue. McCain hit on some of his trademark issues, saying earmark reform was the solution to the great challenge the party faces on ethics. He even referenced a questionable earmark in the home state of Sen. Conrad Burns (R) to make his point. But he carefully noted that when a vote on reform was on the table, it was held up by Dems trying to score points on Dubai. So, he said, if Americans are upset with the lack of reform, they can lay the blame squarely at the hands of the Democratic Party. McCain didn't endear himself to many earlier this year when he was part of the Gang of 14 filibuster compromise. Tonight he made an effort to explain his participation. He strongly condemned Dems for voting en masse against Alito, and teased the audience by singling out a "senator from New York." It was, he said. Chuck Schumer. It took the audience a few long seconds to begin there "boos." (Perhaps they were thinking "Clinton.") Again, McCain was the only speaker to speak at length about Iraq, strongly endorsing the administration's stance. He directly confronted Dems who say the administration lied about WMD, saying anyone who does so is lying themselves. Then, he quickly pivoted to Iran, again supporting a hard-line stance in the face of suspected nuclear weapons development. McCain seemed to rush through the issue, and the crowd seemed more than happy for him to get on with it. In 2004, much was made of what seemed to be a pained look on McCain's face when he campaigned with Bush. Tonight, McCain even made light of rumors of him joining John Kerry's ticket. So, call it what you will. Was it Vintage McCain -- the so-called maverick who has the courage to break with his party on principle? Or is it McCain, the true believer on fiscal and defense issues who is the pitbull Democrats should fear most (remember, Barack?). With a dose of supposed straight talk, it's hard to say. But for whatever questions remained in the minds of his audience, his performance still earned some positive reaction. As one delegate said leaving the hall: "For going into the devils den, he did a great job." Some more quick hits: If Team McCain was worried about how warm the welcome would be, McCain can thank ex-OK Rep. J.C. Watts for doing a "heckuva job" warming up the crowd. As the audience was on its feet and Watts made his exit, McCain wasted no time taking his place at the podium. (More on Watts tomorrow). In his opening comedy routine, McCain (a) made light of the poor track record of Arizona White House hopefuls (but this isn't about '08, right John?) He also seemed to mix up Zsa Zsa Gabor and Liz Taylor while having a laugh at the expense of Sen. John Warner. (Warner was married to Taylor, but McCain sort of bungled the line and it took a while for the titters to reach full volume.) Another crowd pleaser: "Standing with our president" gets a standing O. But for all the day's hype about his "Write In W. Campaign," the one devoted to his request was flatly delivered and consequently fell a bit flat. (The audience seemed to agree that it was important to focus on 2006.) McCain doesn't just support Bush on policy. He also seems to have taken cues from POTUS on town hall-style speaking. In true Oprah fashion, he broke out the hands free mic and did the town hall strut. McCain ended with his familiar (yet still compelling) story about a fellow Vietnam POW.

3/10: Senior Republican officials are not happy with Sen. John McCain for urging his supporters at the SRLC to write in President Bush's name on the Hotline's straw poll. The officials felt that the gesture would be interpreted as political and would call attention to Pres. Bush's precarious position in public opinion polls. Asked for their response, Dana Perino, a White House spokesperson, told the Hotline: "We certainly appreciate the support and spirit about the gesture." More Perino: "The president is excited about 2006. He looks forward to campaigning for the Republican Party for the 2006 elections; we are the party of ideas and cohesion and it is because of that that we are able to get things done for the American people." Pressed as to whether the White House would like to see the president get votes, Perino would only say that "the president wants Republican candidates to win in 2006 and we're focused on making that happen."

3/10: Unlike some of his first forays into presidential politics in SC and other places, MA Gov. Mitt Romney was much more respectful of the state he governs. He stressed two phrases over and over, "Republican governors can make a difference" and "Republican principles can make a difference ... even in a blue state like Massachusetts." The speech was filled with references of things he did in Massachusetts that he thought would go over well with this conservative crowd. There were multiple references to his fight to get the English language used in the public schools. In fact, he was so pro-Massachusetts in his speech, he even got in a few quotes about the state's favorite "conservative" son, John Adams. He had a reference to Adams biographer David McCullough as well as Abigail Adams and John Q. Adams. Romney came in with an acknowledgement of the SRLC's unofficial host (and likely '08 rival), Bill Frist. Romney started singing the lyrics to "Davey Crockett" and alterted the last line to, "Doctorrrr, Doctor Bill Frist, king of the wild frontier." It got a decent laugh. Among other topics Romney touched on: -- push for the election of Republican governors in 2006 (he is chairman of the RGA after all). He gave an extra shout out to Haley Barbour and Jeb Bush and allowing the crowd the cheer. -- he seconded Pres. Bush's renewed call for the line-item veto. -- he had a whole riff describing what the culture of America was. It's where he talked about gay marriage. He also quoted Rick Warren of "Purpose Driven Life" fame. -- The speech opened and closed with 2002 Winter Olympic Anecdotes, including in his conclusion which tied together the closing ceremonies of the 2002 Games and a remembrance to 9/11. Basically, he ended his speech with Mom and Apple Pie. Romney has a very cool and calm speaking style that is part motivational speaker, part Wally Beaver. It's the Beaver part, though, that he probably has to cut back on, no matter how genuine it actually is.

3/10: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will urge SRLC conference registrants tonight to write in the name of Pres. George W. Bush when they vote in the Hotline's '08 presidential straw poll. McCain, in a copy of his prepared remarks distributed to reporters by a top adviser, says that "straw polls are entertaining, my friends, even extremely early ones." But "I think we have bigger things to worry about. So if any friends here are thinking about voting for me, please don't. Just write in President Bush's name. For the next three years, with the country at war, he's our President, and the only one who must have our support today." An aide to a rival campaign called McCain's decision to try and opt out "a ploy" and predicted that most straw poll voters would find it too cute by half. Another said he was "not surprised" because McCain was not expected to do well in the straw poll anyway. Still, Bush retains significantly higher job approval ratings among southern Republicans than just about any other democraphic group. Republican sources said that Gov. Haley Barbour, in his planned remarks, also intends to ask attendees to support Pres. Bush in the straw poll. Hotline editor-in-chief Chuck Todd said, "We thank Sen. McCain for raising the profile of the straw poll and for acknowledging that the results matter." Questions: so what if Republicans don't follow McCain's advice? Would that be interperted as a bigger repudiation of McCain than a poor straw poll showing?

3/10: The first campaign paraphernalia targeting straw poll voters is a sticker that urges people to write in President Bush and "Focus on 2006" and "Support Our President." The stickers are ubiquitous. A senior Republican strategist tells the Hotline that McCain supporters are behind the effort. A very on-message organizer of the campaign insists that the stickers are simply a grassroots effort to channel Republicans' proper energies toward 2006. Update: the "Bush supporters" now have 11 x 14 printed signs. This isn't some "grassroots" idea, it's an organized effort; we're continuing our search for the folks who are paying for it.

3/10: Did Bill Frist's VolPAC really pay for 500 Tennesseans to attend the SRLC? (Not nearly half that amount.) Is Virginia representedy by 400 Allen-ites? (There are about fifty registered attendees.)

3/10:There's an effort by some GOP officials to convince folks to vote for Pres. Bush. GOPers are passing out a "Write In President Bush -- Support Our Troops" sticker.)

3/10:The Draft Condi folks are in the house? (And how -- they even are running a radio ad in Memphis, although it's not clear that any of the registrants will listen to the radio during their stay.)

3/10: Sen. Bill Frist and Gov. Mitt Romney attended a TN GOP donor maitenance event at Graceland tonight. We're told that Romney was the belle of the ball, so to speak, in part because so many had never seen him before. Also making the rounds: Sen. Norm Coleman.

On tap Friday: a morning breakfast with Mitt Romney at the Skyway on top of the Peabody. An evening reception for the Mississippi delegation at BB King's featuring Sens. Trent Lott and John McCain. Romney's 15 minute address to the convention at about 2:00 pm CT. And the ducks. And Hardball, which broadcasts live at 5:00 pm ET and 7:00 pm ET.

So what happened during the last major straw poll? We've got the full results from 1998.

Here's a primer from ABC News' Chalian. Expectations setting from WashPost's Cillizza. Excitement and insight from MSNBC's Matthews.

Local press coverage here and here. Blog coverage here, here and here, here.

More than 1800 registrants, more than 200 members of the media, dozens of vendors and hundreds of staff members will pack the 464-room Peabody.

The opening session on Friday, 3/10 features Sen. Lamar Alexander, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman, Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA), Sens. Norm Coleman (R-MN) and David Vitter (R-LA) and Beverly Davis, chair of the National Federation of Republican Women. The evening session features Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Gov. Haley Barbour, (R-MS) Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). The Saturday morning session features Sen. George Allen, Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR), Sen. Trent Lott(R-MS) and Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX). The Saturday afternoon session features Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN), Sen. Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Dennis Hastert.

CONFIRMED '08 SPEAKERS

SEN. GEORGE ALLEN (R-VA)

· Alamanac Profile
· Campaign website
· Tipsheet

SEN. SAM BROWNBACK (R-KS)

· Alamanac Profile
· Campaign Website

SEN. BILL FRIST (R-TN)

· Alamanac Profile
· VOLPAC
· Tipsheet

GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE (R-AR)

· Alamanac Profile
· GOV website
· Tipsheet

SEN. JOHN McCAIN (R-AZ)

· Alamanac Profile
· PAC website

GOV. MITT ROMNEY (R-MA)

· Alamanac Profile
· RGA website
· Tipsheet

ABOUT THE HOTLINE STRAW POLL

The Hotline will conduct a presidential preference straw poll at this year's Southern Republican Leadership Conference. Every two years, the SRLC brings together thousands of influential Republicans across the South, including state and county chairs, elected officials, major donors and consultants, national party leaders and grassroots activists.This year, members of the Midwestern Republican Leadership Conference are invited, bringing the total number of states represented to 26. Prospective presidential candidates -- especially those who consider the South and Midwest critical to their nomination strategies -- can't miss the opportunity to speak before registrants. And the Hotline will take their pulse.

SRLC HISTORY

The SRLC rose to prominence in the 1980s as GOPers began to consolidate congressional districts across the South. As Ronald Reagan told the gathering in '84 in GA: "It wasn't that long ago, yes, when the South was a stronghold for the Democratic Party. But from the spirit I sense here, those days are long gone. Today it's the Republican Party that reflects the progress and the vibrance of the new South."

At the '98 straw poll in Biloxi, MS, candidate/speakers included Lamar Alexander, John Aschroft, Dan Quayle and Steve Forbes. All were well-received, but the one man who didn't show -- then TX Gov. George W. Bush -- won the poll, a testament to his early strength among GOP elites. (Bush was busy campaigning in his GOV primary which was the very next week.) Forbes came in second, a reflection of the popularity of his tax message (which Bush later adopted) and his surprising strength among social conservatives. There were many 'Bush-Quayle' signs in the audience; Quayle placed third. Then-Sen. Fred Thompson got 10 percent. The SRLC can also break candidacies: Jack Kemp's speech was so poorly received that it portended the beginning of the end of his candidacy.