Congress - Can Thomas Fill the Bill?

Richard E. Cohen (Email this author)
© National Journal Group, Inc.

On a prominent wall at the office of the House Ways and Means Committee, four large and nearly identical photographs show Chairman Bill Thomas, R-Calif., smiling broadly as he and other dignitaries watch President Bush sign major legislation. Thomas laps up the recognition provided by such ceremonies, and the photos serve as a not-so-subtle reminder that he has been a key contributor to the success of the GOP agenda. He played big roles in passing two major tax cuts, presidential trade-negotiating authority, and Medicare prescription drug benefits.

Now House Republican leaders are relying on Thomas to do the heavy lifting on the most difficult legislative challenge of the Bush era: reforming Social Security. The problem for House Republicans, even the savviest party insiders, is that the inscrutable Ways and Means chairman sees so many pieces to the puzzle and keeps so many options open that it can be difficult to decipher his strategy.

"I would never bet against Bill Thomas," said a senior House GOP leadership aide who has often worked with the chairman. "Thomas has figured out a way to get a [Social Security] bill through the House. But his possibility for how to do it has 9,000 tortured angles. I asked him if there is a simple way to explain it, and he said no. We still have to figure out what he wants to do."

For close observers, Thomas has sent some clear signals of his intentions. He envisions a "three-legged stool" of retirement security that includes Social Security reform, a pension law overhaul, and additional incentives for personal savings. He was talking up his desire to broaden the Social Security debate in this manner as far back as January, when, at an inauguration-week forum sponsored by National Journal, he attracted considerable media attention by calling Bush's proposal a "dead horse."

Earlier this month, the outlines of that broad approach began to emerge when Thomas joined House Education and the Workforce Committee Chairman John Boehner, R-Ohio, in co-sponsoring a pension reform plan that is targeted partly at strengthening the beleaguered federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. At the time, Thomas told reporters that combining overhauls of the private pension system and the Social Security system along with personal savings provisions will help leaders move a package through Congress.

"By putting them together, I think it speeds the process," Thomas said, according to CongressDaily. "Instead of having three highly contested partisan fights, we'll only have one."

This week, Thomas, under mounting pressure from his Republican colleagues to cough up more specifics, revealed a bit more of his possible game plan. He gave the go-ahead to four Ways and Means Republicans to hold a June 22 press conference to unveil a proposal under which new investment accounts for workers would be financed from the surplus in the Social Security trust fund, which is currently used to finance other government programs. (Bush's proposal calls for payroll taxes to finance personal accounts.)

"We are putting Treasury bonds into personal accounts, with your name on it," explained Rep. Jim McCrery, R-La., who chairs the Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee.

McCrery and the other participants said that their proposal was merely a "first step" toward a broader package, and Thomas released a statement saying that the plan "will likely form the basis for one of the components of a developing retirement security package." A former House GOP leadership aide-turned-lobbyist said that the proposal responds to rank-and-file pressure for a "contingency plan" that members can cite to constituents who are worried about their Social Security checks.

The administration did not immediately shoot down the proposal. White House spokesman Scott McClellan, asked at his June 22 briefing about the House plan to use the Social Security surplus to fund private accounts, replied: "The president has outlined his proposal, and the president believes his approach is the way we should proceed. But he welcomes all those who are coming forward with ideas and putting ideas on the table."

Although much of Washington -- including many Republicans -- has all but consigned Bush's Social Security reform initiative to the political dustbin, Thomas's allies on Ways and Means are strikingly upbeat. "Committee members have become well versed on issues, and that increases the possibility that we can pass a good bill," said Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., who was part of the McCrery initiative this week. "And we can't pass a bill in the House without personal accounts."

Rep. Kenny Hulshof, R-Mo. -- who, like Ryan, serves on the Social Security Subcommittee -- added that the 11 hearings that the committee and subcommittee have held on the issue since March have been useful in getting members of both parties to focus on the "nuts and bolts" of Social Security. But Hulshof, like his chairman, was careful not to reveal too much, adding, "Like a true detective novel, you don't know the outcome until you get to the end."

For their part, House Democratic leaders continue to insist that they will not join discussions about a Social Security reform package unless GOP leaders and Bush agree to drop their call for personal accounts. "The hearings have been an educational forum for airing points of view. But Republicans haven't bridged the differences on private accounts," said Rep. Sander Levin, D-Mich., the ranking member on the Social Security Subcommittee.

Asked about the possibility that a broad retirement security package could open the door to bipartisanship, Levin responded, "That has to be done around a table. To have meaningful discussions, personal accounts have to be off the table. No artificial sweeteners will make personal accounts acceptable."

For much of this year, many House Republicans have insisted that they prefer to await Senate action on Social Security, rather than run the political risk of getting too far out in front with their own bold plan. "There is no reason to take on an issue ... unless we know that the Senate will act," House Majority Whip Roy Blunt, R-Mo., said in a March interview with NJ. While Bush will never again face the voters, House Republicans are painfully aware that they don't have that luxury -- and that the current public opinion polls show low ratings for Congress and little demand for action on Social Security.

Nevertheless, House GOP legislative strategists concede that Bush's public sales campaign for Social Security reform -- plus behind-the-scenes pressure from high-level White House officials for a floor vote -- make it difficult for them simply to walk away from the issue. In part, they are wary of repeating the Democrats' embarrassment in 1994, when President Clinton's sweeping health care reform initiative died without a House or Senate vote. Some believe that the Democrats' legislative meltdown played a role in that year's electoral debacle, when the party lost House and Senate control.

The Senate, for its part, appears deadlocked on Social Security. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, has conceded that a series of meetings among his GOP panel members has made little progress. "As time slips, it's just difficult to say," he recently told reporters about the prospect of Finance Committee action on Social Security.

The Senate uncertainty is one of the many question marks surrounding the Social Security debate. After all, Congress has not considered major legislative changes to Social Security since 1983, when there was broad bipartisan support for averting an immediate funding crisis. Consequently, barely 50 current House members have ever voted on the issue, and the GOP majority has never seriously tackled it. Thomas is the only current Ways and Means member who was serving on the subcommittee in 1983.

Thomas, however, has a personal stake in enacting Social Security reform during this Congress, because term limits require him to step down as Ways and Means chairman at the end of 2006. "This chairman wants to make law, and this may be his only chance," said a Ways and Means Republican.

Thomas commented briefly on the new plan involving the Social Security surplus at the weekly House Republican Conference meeting on June 22. But most of his discussions with other lawmakers have taken place at the closed-door lunch that Ways and Means Republicans typically hold each Wednesday when the House is in session. "Thomas uses those meetings to see how members react to various proposals," said a House GOP aide.

The challenge facing Thomas and House Republicans is dramatized by the apparent divisions among GOP leaders on how boldly to move ahead on Social Security. Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, has been publicly enthusiastic about the idea, and told reporters this week that he has been "in constant contact" with Thomas on the issue. Ways and Means Republicans "are moving toward a solution that makes sense," DeLay added. But Blunt, who would have the burden of securing a majority of House votes for the measure, has been more cautious.

Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., has acknowledged the "nervousness" among members and emphasized that it's important to take the time to do the job right, although he has said that action must be wrapped up well before the 2006 elections. "I feel cautiously optimistic that we can get this thing done," Hastert said in a March interview with NJ.

For now, "getting this thing done" seems largely up to Thomas, and some of his House Republican colleagues believe that he's the man to do it.

"Bill Thomas knows what he is up against, including the Republican leadership, the Senate, the White House, and Democrats," said Boehner, one of the few members who has discussed with Thomas the strategy for handling Social Security and related issues. "He has been proceeding methodically to develop a comprehensive bill. It's a daunting process.... But if there is one member in this building you should not underestimate, it's Bill Thomas."

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