Political Insiders Poll

Poll: How Likely Is the United States to Breach the Debt Ceiling?

None

Michael Catalini Alex Roarty and Peter Bell
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Michael Catalini Alex Roarty and Peter Bell
Oct. 3, 2013, 4 p.m.

How likely is it that the debt-ceil­ing lim­it won’t be raised in time to avoid de­fault?

DEMO­CRATS (88 VOTES)

Very likely: 21%
Likely: 23%
Not likely: 57%

Very Likely

“For some reas­on, the GOP thinks this is their Wa­ter­loo.”

“We went off the rails on the con­tinu­ing res­ol­u­tion, and the crazy train hasn’t stopped yet.”

“This Con­gress has shown a will­ing­ness to do any­thing to make a polit­ic­al point, even against our na­tion­al in­terest.”

“That doesn’t mean there will be a de­fault, though.”

Likely

“The in­mates are in con­trol of the asylum.”

“The tea-party con­ser­vat­ives are like the kid who blows stuff up in the mi­crowave just to see what hap­pens.”

“The busi­ness com­munity that funds many of the ni­hil­ist Re­pub­lic­ans will force them to the table.”

Not likely

“The only sure­fire way for Re­pub­lic­ans to lose Con­gress would be to al­low a debt de­fault.”

“If the Re­pub­lic­ans cre­ate de­fault through polit­ic­al games and crash the mar­kets, the back­lash across the board will be bru­tal.”

“The GOP ap­pears wisely to have chosen the budget rather than the debt ceil­ing to fight over — shut­down is far less de­struct­ive than de­fault.”

“Tea-party Re­pub­lic­ans will aban­don kami­kaze mis­sion pri­or to crash­ing the world’s eco­nomy.”

“The Re­pub­lic­ans are crazy, but not that crazy.”

“The prob­lem for Re­pub­lic­ans is that some of them don’t have the cour­age to go through with their threats, and some of them are too smart to al­low it.”

“Any­thing is pos­sible with the tea-party House, but the pres­sure will mount and a deal will prob­ably be made in two weeks.”

“Wall Street will nev­er al­low it.”

How likely is it that the debt-ceil­ing lim­it won’t be raised in time to avoid de­fault?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (99 VOTES)

Very likely: 12%
Likely: 22%
Not likely: 66%

Very likely

“Someone has brain­washed these guys in­to think­ing that in­ac­tion is akin to a hard day’s work on the Pon­der­osa. If past is pro­logue, noth­ing will get done in time.”

“Every­one is spoil­ing for a fight.”

Likely

“Get ready: We’re de­fin­ing dys­func­tion­al­ity down in Wash­ing­ton.”

“Two sep­ar­ate is­sues. Debt ceil­ing may not be raised by Oct. 17, but we will not de­fault.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans are play­ing a very dan­ger­ous game.”

“Obama and Demo­crats are too con­fid­ent they win in such a scen­ario.”

Not likely

“That’s more of a hope than a pre­dic­tion.”

“For­cing a de­fault could nev­er be ex­plained or for­giv­en. One must have faith that in­stincts for re­spons­ible gov­ern­ment, or at least self-pre­ser­va­tion, will trump the quack pre­scrip­tions of people like Ted Cruz.”

“No one wants their 401(k) to plum­met by a mar­ket crash.”

“They aren’t THAT stu­pid … or are they?”

“It’s a host­age very few would ac­tu­ally be will­ing to shoot.”

“For­tu­nately, we still have a crit­ic­al mass of think­ing con­ser­vat­ives who un­der­stand the dire im­plic­a­tions for the eco­nomy if the fed­er­al gov­ern­ment de­faults.”

“Hope­fully, saner heads will pre­vail, al­though that may be just a hope and a pray­er.”

“Fin­an­cial mar­kets have one foot in the grave, and one foot on a ba­nana peel. I re­fuse to be­lieve these guys are stu­pid enough to mess with that.”

… … … … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud. 

How likely is it that the debt-ceiling limit won't be raised in time to avoid default?

DEMO­CRATS (88 VOTES)

Very likely: 21%
Likely: 23%
Not likely: 57%

Very Likely

“For some reas­on, the GOP thinks this is their Wa­ter­loo.”

“We went off the rails on the con­tinu­ing res­ol­u­tion, and the crazy train hasn’t stopped yet.”

“This Con­gress has shown a will­ing­ness to do any­thing to make a polit­ic­al point, even against our na­tion­al in­terest.”

“That doesn’t mean there will be a de­fault, though.”

Likely

“The in­mates are in con­trol of the asylum.”

“The tea-party con­ser­vat­ives are like the kid who blows stuff up in the mi­crowave just to see what hap­pens.”

“The busi­ness com­munity that funds many of the ni­hil­ist Re­pub­lic­ans will force them to the table.”

Not likely

“The only sure­fire way for Re­pub­lic­ans to lose Con­gress would be to al­low a debt de­fault.”

“If the Re­pub­lic­ans cre­ate de­fault through polit­ic­al games and crash the mar­kets, the back­lash across the board will be bru­tal.”

“The GOP ap­pears wisely to have chosen the budget rather than the debt ceil­ing to fight over — shut­down is far less de­struct­ive than de­fault.”

“Tea-party Re­pub­lic­ans will aban­don kami­kaze mis­sion pri­or to crash­ing the world’s eco­nomy.”

“The Re­pub­lic­ans are crazy, but not that crazy.”

“The prob­lem for Re­pub­lic­ans is that some of them don’t have the cour­age to go through with their threats, and some of them are too smart to al­low it.”

“Any­thing is pos­sible with the tea-party House, but the pres­sure will mount and a deal will prob­ably be made in two weeks.”

“Wall Street will nev­er al­low it.”

How likely is it that the debt-ceiling limit won't be raised in time to avoid default?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (99 VOTES)

Very likely: 12%
Likely: 22%
Not likely: 66%

Very likely

“Someone has brain­washed these guys in­to think­ing that in­ac­tion is akin to a hard day’s work on the Pon­der­osa. If past is pro­logue, noth­ing will get done in time.”

“Every­one is spoil­ing for a fight.”

Likely

“Get ready: We’re de­fin­ing dys­func­tion­al­ity down in Wash­ing­ton.”

“Two sep­ar­ate is­sues. Debt ceil­ing may not be raised by Oct. 17, but we will not de­fault.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans are play­ing a very dan­ger­ous game.”

“Obama and Demo­crats are too con­fid­ent they win in such a scen­ario.”

Not likely

“That’s more of a hope than a pre­dic­tion.”

“For­cing a de­fault could nev­er be ex­plained or for­giv­en. One must have faith that in­stincts for re­spons­ible gov­ern­ment, or at least self-pre­ser­va­tion, will trump the quack pre­scrip­tions of people like Ted Cruz.”

“No one wants their 401(k) to plum­met by a mar­ket crash.”

“They aren’t THAT stu­pid … or are they?”

“It’s a host­age very few would ac­tu­ally be will­ing to shoot.”

“For­tu­nately, we still have a crit­ic­al mass of think­ing con­ser­vat­ives who un­der­stand the dire im­plic­a­tions for the eco­nomy if the fed­er­al gov­ern­ment de­faults.”

“Hope­fully, saner heads will pre­vail, al­though that may be just a hope and a pray­er.”

“Fin­an­cial mar­kets have one foot in the grave, and one foot on a ba­nana peel. I re­fuse to be­lieve these guys are stu­pid enough to mess with that.”

… … … … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud. 

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