Josh Kraushaar

Josh Kraushaar

Managing Editor, Politics

Josh Kraushaar is managing editor of politics at National Journal and pens the weekly “Against the Grain” column. He also contributes to 2012 Decoded.  Kraushaar previously reported for Politico, where he broke political news and covered and analyzed campaigns. Prior to joining Politico, Kraushaar was the editor of House Race Hotline where he covered the historic 2006 Congressional elections.  Kraushaar has appeared as a political analyst on television and radio, including FOX News, MSNBC, CNN, National Public Radio and C-SPAN. He co-hosted a weekly radio show on XM Radio during the 2008 presidential election titled “Politics Nation” along with Hotline Editor-in-Chief Reid Wilson.

Josh Kraushaar's Latest Posts

Is The White House Obscuring the Truth?

By
White House spokesman adds more confusion to the administration's response to IRS scandal, Benghazi response on Sunday shows. Read More »

Hillary Clinton Has the Most to Lose From Obama's Scandals

By
It's not just Benghazi. By tying herself closely to Obama, she'll have trouble distancing herself if scandal worsens. Read More »

What To Watch For in Tonight's South Carolina District 1 Special Election

By and Joey Carolino
On Tuesday, voters in South Carolina’s 1st District will be heading to the polls in a special election to fill the vacant seat once held by now-Sen. Tim Scott. The race, between former GOP Gov. Mark Sanford and Elizabeth Colb...

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Obama's Legacy: A Health Care Law That Hurts His Party

By
Like the Iraq war tarnished the Republican brand, ObamaCare could be a long-term political millstone for Democrats. Read More »

Prepare for a Special Election in the Craziest-Shaped Congressional District in the Country

By
If Rep. Melvin Watt winds up going to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, he'll be leaving behind an incredibly gerrymandered district in North Carolina. Read More »

The Senate Retirements: What Will Happen in Eight Key Seats

By and Joey Carolino
One-third of the Senate is up for reelection next year, including 20 Democrats and 13 Republicans. But eight of these senators have already announced their plans to retire, including some of the most powerful and long-term membe...

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Democrats Need Working-Class Heroes to Keep Control of Senate

By
For Republicans, the Senate won't be won in the deep South. They'll need to pick off blue-collar Democratic states like Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan. Read More »

How Obama Misread the Politics of Gun Control

By
Reality check: Gun-control opponents hold the upper hand politically in 2014. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Why Rand Paul Was Right to Reach Out to Black Voters

By
It's political malpractice for the GOP to ignore the constituency that is critical to its long-term success. Read More »

Why Stephen Colbert’s Sister Could Beat Mark Sanford

By
Scandal-plagued candidates have a lousy track record at winning elections. Read More »

A Truly Special Election in South Carolina

By
If only for entertainment, the most compelling contest this year is South Carolina’s special election, which could pit former Gov. Mark Sanford against the sister of comedian Stephen Colbert. Read More »

In Making Play for the House, President Obama Could Lose the Senate

By
Second-term setbacks are forcing Obama to sound more conciliatory toward Republicans. Read More »

Mitt Romney Isn't Done Proving Why He's Not President

By
One silver lining for Republicans: The GOP’s presidential nominee in 2016 will be much more politically savvy. Read More »

President Obama’s Losing Hand on the Sequester Fight

By
To understand why the White House is aggressively contesting Bob Woodward’s account of who’s responsible for the sequester, take a look how high the political stakes are for President Obama.  Read More »

Bob McDonnell's Political Lesson for President Obama

By
Supporters of President Obama’s insistence on additional revenue as the only way to avoid the sequester should take a close look across the Potomac River for an alternative way of getting things done. Read More »

What Would President Romney Do?

By
For those convinced that President Obama doesn’t deserve any blame for the fiscal gridlock, let’s do a thought experiment. Let’s imagine that Mitt Romney was elected president and was dealing with the same Congress that Obama...

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Are Chuck Hagel’s Views Outside the Mainstream?

By
Defense secretary nominee Chuck Hagel will have his second chance at confirmation next  week, when the Senate returns to session. But in assessing why the GOP opposition has been  stronger and more unified than expected...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

How 'House of Cards' Gets the Biggest Thing About Washington Wrong

By
Netflix's House of Cards gets the small things right but the biggest thing about Washington wrong. Read More »

The Edge: Is Obama Acting Like a Lame Duck?

By
For a president who won reelection decisively and made ambitious promises in his inaugural, Obama is acting more like a lame duck ahead of Tuesday’s State of the Union. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Why Reforming the Primary Process Would Produce a More Productive Congress

By
Closed party primaries are the leading culprit behind growing polarization. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The GOP's Latest Challenge: Stopping the Next Todd Akin

By
A slew of gaffe-prone Republican candidates are already emerging to run for the Senate, and could cost the party their shot at a majority again. What can the GOP do? Read More »

Harkin Retiring from Senate

By
Iowa Sen.  Tom Harkin  will be retiring after his term ends in 2014,  the Associated Press reports , a decision that sets up another competitive battleground state Senate contest and a potential pickup opportunity for...

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Why Winning Georgia Is on Democrats' Minds

By
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Bill Clinton To Campaign With Pryor

By
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama: A Party of One

By
President Obama's second-term achievements depend on whether his voters were drawn more to his personality or his policy proposals. Read More »

Source: Darr Will Mount Senate Bid in Arkansas

By
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Obama Betting That His Brand Transcends Politics

By
With a lobbying group at his side, President Obama is once again hoping his personal brand can transcend the messy game of political wheeling-and-dealing. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Cuomo, O’Malley: Ready for Prime Time?

By
By focusing on gun control as their issue du jour, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley look more like White House pretenders than contenders. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama's Ambitious Second-Term Agenda Could Backfire

By
Just one week into the new year, Obama has already hit some unpleasant stumbling blocks with his own party. Read More »

The Republican Identity Crisis

By
The Republican Party could very well split into two by the 2016 presidential election, if it can't figure out what it stands for. Read More »

Hagel Pick Pressures Pro-Israel Democrats

By
The biggest factor in determining whether former GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel will win confirmation as Defense Secretary will come from leading pro-Israel senators in the president’s own party. Read More »

Why Hurricane Sandy Threatens House GOP More Than Fiscal Cliff

By
House Republicans have taken a political hit over their positioning on the fiscal cliff. But for campaign committee officials looking to hold the House, the controversy over funding for Hurricane Sandy, could do more to threaten the...

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McConnell Team Privately Rooting Judd On

By
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POLITICS

Tea Party the Fuel Behind GOP Diversity

By
The story behind South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley naming Rep. Tim Scott to replace Jim DeMint in the Senate is that they are both  tea party-aligned conservatives who took on the Republican establishment and won. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Republican Diversity Fueled by Tea Party

By
For those Republicans believing the tea party is responsible for the GOP's struggles, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s decision to choose Rep. Tim Scott to replace Jim DeMint in the Senate would have come as a stunner.  The ...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Michigan Furor Previews Coming Tests of Labor Power

By
Michigan is currently ground zero in the fight between labor and conservatives who believe its influence is hindering job growth. But the Wolverine State skirmish over right-to-work legislation is just a preview for one of many hotl...

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DeMint Resignation Sets Off South Carolina Scramble

By and Julie Sobel
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Republicans Are Running Scared--From Each Other

By
On paper, 2014 is shaping up to be a fruitful election cycle for Senate Republicans. Democrats are defending more seats again than Republicans; presidential second terms often feature midterm trouble; and, most important, talented G...

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Party Bases Colliding in Virginia Governor's Race

By
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2014 Senate Picture Promising For GOP, With Right Candidates

By
What a difference two years makes for Senate Republicans.  After a cycle punctuated by disappointing recruits, missed opportunities and disastrous results, the party has already started the new cycle on an impressive note, even...

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POLITICS

Top 5 Priorities for the GOP in Coming Months

By
The Republican Senate campaign committee is plotting to “prevent more Todd Akins” from emerging over the next two years. But there are already indications that the mission to stop unelectable candidates from emerging is a l...

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ANALYSIS

Republican Future Lies With Governors

By
As Republicans begin their soul-searching in the wake of Mitt Romney’s decisive defeat in the 2012 presidential election, they could learn some useful lessons from the current crop of GOP governors.  Read More »
ANALYSIS

White Working-Class Voters Expanding Presidential Battleground Map

By
I’ve got to admit, it’s somewhat comical to watch the debate over polls that regularly takes place on Twitter. Partisans on both sides are questioning samples, methodology, and each other. And while they’re obsessing over the ...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Senate Control May Hinge on Presidential Race

By
The presidential election isn’t the only contest that’s going down to the wire in November. The battle for the Senate is remarkably close, and control could end up being determined by the outcome of the presidential contest.&nbs...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

For Democrats, It's Not 2008 Any More

By
One of House Democrats’ favorite talking points this cycle has dwelled on one statistic: the number of Republicans holding seats in districts that President Obama carried in 2008 and newly-created seats that the president won (66)...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Democrats Learn to Love the Super PAC

By
At the beginning of the election cycle, Democrats publicly agonized that outside campaign spending, liberalized by the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling, would create a brave new world where stealthy Republican outside g...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

GOP Senate Candidates: Yesteryear's Heroes

By
One of Mitt Romney’s significant vulnerabilities in the presidential race is the hole in his resume after he left the Massachusetts governorship in January 2007. After leaving office, he became something of a permanent presid...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Time for Romney to Think Outside the Box

By
Rereading Walter Isaacson’s biography of the late Apple CEO Steve Jobs, it’s hard not be struck by one passage illustrating Jobs’s philosophy about focus groups and survey data: He ignored it. In his mind, he had a vision for ...

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ANALYSIS

Despite Fundraising Edge, Romney Outgunned on Airwaves

By
Mitt Romney’s campaign has taken heat for a series of recent gaffes, but the campaign’s bigger blunder may be in its misallocation of campaign resources. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Democrats Hold Momentum in Battle for Senate

By
Handicapping the Senate landscape is an increasingly volatile exercise these days, with Democrats highly competitive in deeply conservative states while Republicans hold their own in the Northeast and other unfriendly confines (as I...

Read More »
ANALYSIS

Growing Economic Optimism Buoying Obama

By
The most striking statistic from Tuesday’s NBC/ Wall Street Journal poll was that a growing number of Americans believe the country is on the right track. This, despite the monthly jobs reports showing minimal economic growth, ...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Senate Races Don’t Play to Bases

By
One of the great joys of covering Senate races is their sheer unpredictability. And in this year’s closely watched battle for the Senate, the one thing that’s been proven is that candidates still matter—a whole lot. Read More »

Hotline Sort: Murphy's Law

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Booker drops hints about gubernatorial ambitions, Chris Murphy faces trouble in Connecticut, Heitkamp goes on the Medicare attack and Obama's convention speech doesn't match his previous rhetorical grea...

Read More »

Hotline Sort: Clinton Delivers in Clutch

By Josh Kraushaar
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post misstated the presidential results in the Connecticut 5th District poll. President Obama led Mitt Romney 50 percent to 46 percent in the survey. Read More »

Mecklenburg County At Fore of Political Shift

By
Name any one part of the country that has changed more economically and politically over the past decade, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a better example than Mecklenburg County, site of the Democratic National Convention. Read More »

Blue Dog Democrats Hitting Mourdock on Television

By Josh Kraushaar
CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- The Indiana Senate race continues to remain highly competitive, and the moderate Democratic group Center Forward is pouring in over a half a million dollars on a new television advertisement portraying Republican ...

Read More »

Hotline Sort: Congressman Says He's Not A Crook

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Tim Bishop says he's not a crook, American Crossroads blasts Obama's record in battlegrounds, a new poll shows Cory Booker would give Christie a run for his money, and Michelle Obama wowed the conventi...

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CONVENTION ANALYSIS

Democrats Sideline Booker. Was It A Mistake?

By
Republicans received scrutiny at their convention for airing a humanizing video of Mitt Romney out of primetime on a night when they needed to raise the nominee’s personal favorability. But Democrats may have made a similar flub e...

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Hotline Sort: Elizabeth Warren, Call Your Office

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney's torrid fundraising pace continues, Warren hears it from her Democratic skeptics, O'Malley lands primetime in Charlotte and Team Obama struggles to answer whether voters are better off than they...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama’s Scant Democratic Bench

By
For all the hype about the historic nature of President Obama’s presidency, he has brought along with him precious few Democrats who present the same post-racial appeal he showcased in 2008. Read More »
POLITICS

In a Switch, GOP’s Speakers Highlight Diversity

By and
Tuning in to the Republican National Convention this week, viewers could be forgiven for thinking they had switched on the Democratic convention of yesteryear, what with all the up-and-coming women and minority politicians taking t...

Read More »

Hotline Sort: Ryan's Convention Rally

By Josh Kraushaar
Correction: An earlier version of this post mischaracterized Michelle Obama's remarks on the "Late Show with David Letterman." Read More »

In a Switch, GOP’s Speakers Highlight Diversity

By and
Tuning in to the Republican National Convention this week, viewers could be forgiven for thinking they had switched on the Democratic convention of yesteryear, what with all the up-and-coming women and minority politicians taking th...

Read More »

Hotline Sort: The Shrinking Senate Battleground Map

By Josh Kraushaar
Updated at 8:30 a.m. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

It's the Ideology, Stupid

By
Twenty years ago, James Carville popularized the catchphrase, “it’s the economy, stupid” to winning effect against President George H.W. Bush in the 1992 presidential election. Now Mitt Romney is betting that “it’s the ide...

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Hotline Sort: Down in the Desert

By Josh Kraushaar
TAMPA, Fla. -- Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Two Republican congressmen could lose tonight in Arizona, , Jindal criticizes Obama's pre-storm management and would Ed Rendell serve in a Romney administration? Read More »

Hotline Sort: Political Party Switchers

By Josh Kraushaar
TAMPA, Fla. -- Welcome to a Tampa-themed edition of Hotline Sort. Republicans try to help a Democrat in Maine's Senate race, Lingle sounds like a Democrat in Hawaii, Crist endorses Obama but doesn't switch parties (yet), this conven...

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Akin To Announce He's Sticking In Missouri Senate Race

By Josh Kraushaar
The source said that Akin will be announcing that he's been satisfied with his fundraising efforts since the scandal broke. The source added that the Republican was emboldened to stick in the race after he received a positive recep...

Read More »

Hotline Sort: Obama's Other Joe

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Rabbi Shmuley gets on the GOP's radar, Mourdock connects Donnelly to President Obama, Cory Booker indicates renewed interest in challenging Christie, and Democrats tie Connie Mack to Charlie Sheen. He...

Read More »

Hotline Sort: Calling On Clinton

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. David Rivera's ethical woes continue, Murphy's Congressional attendance record is scrutinized, Crossroads GPS goes up with ads in four Senate battlegrounds, and Bill Clinton comes to Obama's aid in a b...

Read More »

Robo-Poll Convinced Akin To Stay in Race

By Josh Kraushaar
"I'm never going to say everything that can possibly happen," Akin said on ABC's "Good Morning America" about the possibility he still could step aside. "I don't know the future." Read More »

Sessions: Tierney Is GOP's Top Target

By Josh Kraushaar and Scott Bland
Redistricting set up some good pickup opportunities for House Republicans across the South, but National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Pete Sessions says the GOP's best opportunity to beat a Democratic incumbent is t...

Read More »

Is Todd Akin Toast In Missouri?

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

The GOP Counter-Argument On Medicare

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Can Ryan's Biography Win Out Over His Budget?

By
In the best-selling book  What’s The Matter With Kansas? , author Thomas Frank makes the provocative argument that working-class voters care more about cultural issues than economic ones, frequently voting against their self-...

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Ryan and Thompson, Two Conservative Paths

By Josh Kraushaar
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Romney, Finding His Inner Christie

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
CAMPAIGN 2012

Use of Ryan Budget in Hill Races Offers Insights

By
Congressional campaigns often serve as an early-warning mechanism to measure voters’ temperature on emerging issues. With House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s selection as Mitt Romney’s running mate, it’s useful to ...

Read More »

Democrats Run the Table in Last Night's Primaries

By Josh Kraushaar
Last night's primaries in Michigan, Missouri, Washington state and Kansas couldn't have gone much better for Democrats. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Expect Romney to Surprise With Running Mate Pick

By
Given Mitt Romney’s tendency to play it safe, GOP operatives insist Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty are the front-runners to become his running mate. But we could be in for a preconvention su...

Read More »

The Riskiest Running Mate for Romney

By Josh Kraushaar
Among the handful of people Mitt Romney could choose as a running mate, there is one candidate who genuinely would be a high-risk pick, and he's getting traction down the home stretch: House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan.  Read More »

Republican Moderates Showing Strain With Leadership

By Josh Kraushaar
House Republicans have demonstrated remarkable party unity in this Congress, supporting a conservative agenda with relatively little internal opposition. The Ryan budget passed twice with very few defectors, party leaders held the l...

Read More »

Obama, Regaining The Momentum

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Elizabeth Warren: Obama's Convention Gamble

By
President Obama understands the political risk of sounding unsympathetic to small business after his “you didn’t build that” remark — a riff straight from Elizabeth Warren's Senate campaign — drew flak. But he se...

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Obama's Elizabeth Warren Test

By Josh Kraushaar
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Romney's Missed Opportunities

By Josh Kraushaar
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The Democratic Dilemma In Connecticut

By Josh Kraushaar
In my Against the Grain column this week, I wrote about the trouble facing Democrats in Connecticut , where their once highly-touted House recruit, state House Speaker Chris Donovan , is staring down a federal investigation over i...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

What Would Rahm Do?

By
In the course of a recent conversation I had with a senior Democratic strategist, the operative expressed a sense of nostalgia for the halcyon days of 2006. That was when New York Sen.  Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel ran the D...

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Breaking Down Obama's Personal Campaign Ad

By Josh Kraushaar
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Hotline Sort: Shays' Rebellion

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney prepares for his overseas trip, Obama's burn rate draws attention, Charlie Crist hints at a return to politics, and John Tierney's in big trouble in Massachusetts. Here's today's rundown: Read More »

Hotline Sort: When Campaign Mailers Talk

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The NRCC inches past the DCCC in June fundraising, Dill gets no love from Democrats in Washington, journalists cry foul over being used in campaign ads, and both the Obama and Romney campaigns double do...

Read More »

Bad Economy Taking Its Toll On Obama

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
POLITICS

In Pursuit of Working-Class Voters

By
Analysis:The Obama campaign's hope is that these blue-collar male voters, dissatisfied with both candidates, end up hesitantly supporting Obama - or just staying home. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Five Bellwether House Races to Watch in 2012

By
With Democrats looking unlikely to pick up the 25 seats necessary to regain control of the House, there hasn’t been all that much news coverage of the individual races. But as someone who views the battle for the House as an early...

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In Pursuit Of Working-Class Voters

By Josh Kraushaar
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Romney's Condi Rice Trial Balloon

By Josh Kraushaar
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The High Stakes Over Romney's Bain Record

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Republican Senate Stragglers

By
With the Supreme Court upholding the constitutionality of President Obama’s health care law, conservatives are paying close attention to the composition of the Senate, knowing that their last chance to overturn the law is with a R...

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Despite Bain Attacks, Obama Still Struggling

By Josh Kraushaar
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Romney Campaign Declaring Cease Fire on Health Care

By Josh Kraushaar
In the aftermath of the Supreme Court health care ruling, the early conventional wisdom was that an unfavorable health care ruling at the court would be good for Republicans politically, even as it was a serious policy setback for ...

Read More »

Democracy Corps: Obama's Messaging Working After All

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Electoral Map Math Favors Romney

By Josh Kraushaar
A new wave of state-by-state polls is showing just how sizable the field of swing states will be this election, with several of the Democratic-leaning white, working-class states looking very much in play even as President Obama is ...

Read More »
POLITICS

Should Democrats Worry About Hispanic Turnout?

By
Analysis: Despite President Obama's aggressive courtship of Latino voters, lackluster turnout for House primaries in states with significant Hispanic populations provides fresh warnings to his campaign. Read More »

Why Rangel's Victory Isn't Good News for Obama

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Should Democrats Worry About Hispanic Turnout?

By
If there was any doubt about the importance of the Hispanic vote this election year, President Obama laid it to rest with his recent, aggressive courtship of Latino voters. But this month also provided fresh warnings to the Obama ca...

Read More »

Blue Dog Democrats Helping Their Own

By Josh Kraushaar
The centrist public policy group Center Forward is going up with a $1.25 million ad blitz this weekend to assist five Blue Dog Democrats who have supported deficit reduction and budget reforms - while also aiding three fiscally-cons...

Read More »
POLITICS

Working-Class Whites a Barrier to a Dem House

By Josh Kraushaar
Analysis: While President Obama believes the way to win a second term is by rallying elements of the party base, House Democrats wanting to regain the majority need the votes of an increasingly disillusioned white working class. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Working-Class Whites a Barrier to a Democratic House

By
Former House Speaker Tip O’Neill famously remarked that all politics is local. But this year, it’s the rhetoric of John Edwards that rings truer--in assessing the House race landscape, there are indeed two Americas. Read More »

Is Rubio the Ideal Match for Romney?

By Josh Kraushaar
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Why Rubio Wasn't the Match for Romney

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Romney's Potential 'Gang of Eight'

By Josh Kraushaar
President Obama and Mitt Romney are giving dueling economic speeches today in Ohio, presenting their proposals to a skeptical public. But one question that's gone unanswered is which candidate has a better shot at getting their age...

Read More »

In Colorado Focus Group, Obama Voters Disillusioned

By Josh Kraushaar
Last night, veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart conducted a focus group featuring 12 undecided, ticket-splitting voters in Colorado, which illustrated the tough challenge President Obama faces in winning a second term.  ...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Romney Scaling the Blue Wall

By
For much of the presidential campaign, President Obama’s top strategists have outlined their numerous paths to 270 electoral votes: win Florida, sweep the Southwest, or pick off a Southern state or two. But they didn’t prepare f...

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California Dreaming: Why New Election Rules Won't Help Centrists

By Josh Kraushaar
Two national newspapers today reach dramatically different conclusions about the impact of California's new top-two election system, which was designed to help elect more centrists and undermine the party primary system that had lon...

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SENATE

Senate Race Rankings: Stability In An Unstable World

By , , Quinn McCord, Sean Sullivan, Julie Sobel and
The Senate landscape has coalesced into three clear tiers. Read More »

Red Flags All Over for Obama in Wisconsin

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Race to Replace Giffords Provides the Next Bellwether

By
The Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election was a critical benchmark for the presidential election, offering a test of both parties’ get-out-the-vote efforts in a battleground state. But next week’s special election in Arizona, ...

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Two Very Special Elections

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
POLITICS

Texas Primary Shows Limits to Hispanic Clout

By Scott Bland and Josh Kraushaar
Paul Kane wrote a must-read story in Thursday's Washington Post on the just-completed Texas primaries, concluding that Hispanic voters aren't taking advantage of their numbers to elect their own to Congress. It's something w...

Read More »

Texas Primary Shows Limits to Hispanic Clout

By Scott Bland and Josh Kraushaar
Paul Kane wrote a must-read story in today's Washington Post on the just-completed Texas primaries, concluding that Hispanic voters aren't taking advantage of their numbers to elect their own to Congress. It's something we not...

Read More »

Obama Facing Challenges Out West

By Josh Kraushaar
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Why Romney Spent Thursday in Inner-City Philadelphia

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Obama's Blue-Collar Challenge

By Josh Kraushaar
In aggressively advancing a populist message, the Obama campaign is betting it can hold onto enough working-class white voters while maintaining its relatively upscale coalition from 2008. But National Journal 's Josh Kraushaar wri...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Emerging Democratic Divide

By
Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s off-message criticism of the Obama campaign’s attacks on Mitt Romney’s background at Bain Capital gave the campaign an untimely, unwanted headache this week. But more significantly, it exposed a tens...

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Booker Blunder Highlights Democratic Divide

By Josh Kraushaar
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Hotline Sort: The Freshman GOP Defectors

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The NRCC outraises the DCCC in April, Crossroads GPS is engaged in ruby-red Nebraska, and Mitt Romney goes up with his first general election ad, telling voters what he'd do as president. Meanwhile,...

Read More »

Hotline Sort: Berg's Poll Position in North Dakota

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Mitt Romney 's campaign and the RNC raised an impressive $40 million in April, a new Republican super PAC has been planning to introduce Jeremiah Wright into the presidential campaign, and stories a...

Read More »

Romney's Targeted Deficit Messaging

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Tea Party Takeover

By
For those who think Sen. Richard Lugar ’s defeat was primarily attributable to running a weak campaign or for living outside of Indiana for decades, I’ve got one number in dissent: 38 percent. That’s the shockingly low percen...

Read More »

New Presidential Polls Puncture Conventional Wisdom

By Josh Kraushaar
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Mike Ross Abandons Gubernatorial Plans

By Josh Kraushaar
Arkansas Democratic Rep. Mike Ross , who announced he wouldn't be running for re-election to the House last year, is abandoning his plans to run for governor of the state. The six-term congressman initially said he wasn't seeking ...

Read More »

Obama's High-Risk, High-Reward Gamble on Gay Marriage

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama, the Underdog

By
This presidential election is coming down to two immutable facts that have become increasingly clear as November draws closer: President Obama will be running for a second term under a stagnant economy, and his two most significant ...

Read More »

Obama Reaches for Some Clinton Magic

By Josh Kraushaar
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Hotline Sort: Tax Wars in Massachusetts

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The tax wars continue in the Massachusetts Senate race, both parties are spending to win Giffords' seat, and Biden attacks Romney on foreign policy - while making a notable double-entendre. Meanwhile, C...

Read More »
THE NEXT AMERICA

Rubio's Gift to Romney on Immigration

By
Even if he doesn't get tapped as Mitt Romney's running mate, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is well-positioned to make his mark on the race. His push for an alternate Dream Act, legalizing the children of some illegal immigrants, is ...

Read More »

Rubio's Gift to Romney on Immigration

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama, Losing His Coalition

By
In physics, every action produces an equal and opposite reaction. President Obama could learn a lesson from Sir Isaac Newton and understand that while his policies promoting fairness may poll well in a vacuum, they could strike at t...

Read More »

Crossroads GPS Launches $1.2 Million Ad Blitz in Key Senate Races

By Josh Kraushaar
Crossroads GPS, the nonprofit affiliate of the GOP-aligned super PAC, is launching an $1.2 million ad blitz against five Democratic Senate candidates on Tuesday, using its early financial advantage to attack the candidates' records ...

Read More »
THE NEXT AMERICA

Rethinking the Hispanic Vote

By
Mitt Romney was mocked for calling on illegal immigrants to self-deport at a debate last year, but a new  Pew Hispanic Center study  shows that's exactly what many Mexican immigrants have been doing on their own, with as m...

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Rethinking the Hispanic Vote

By Josh Kraushaar
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Is Obama Alienating His Wealthy Base?

By Josh Kraushaar
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The Presidential State of Play

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Death of the Center

By
In the next month, we’re poised to see the latest death blow to centrism in both parties, with Republican Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana in the primary fight of his political life and a leading Blue Dog Democrat, Rep. Tim Holden...

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Obama's Blue-Collar Messaging

By Josh Kraushaar
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CAMPAIGN 2012

Veepstakes As the NCAA Tournament

By Josh Kraushaar
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Fresh Warning Signs for Obama

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama, Not Holding the Center

By
If President Obama loses reelection in November, the seeds of his defeat will have been planted in his fiery, populist campaign kickoff speech at the Associated Press luncheon last week. It was a negative, overly political addres...

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Romney's VP Sleeper: Kelly Ayotte

By Josh Kraushaar
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Obama, Romney Preview Negative, Ideological Campaign

By Josh Kraushaar
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Paul Ryan For VP?

By Josh Kraushaar
With a victory in the Wisconsin primary tonight, Mitt Romney would be in commanding  position for the nomination - and he can thank one of the state's most prominent Republicans for the help. Read More »
POLITICS

Five Takeaways from Brown-Warren Poll

By Josh Kraushaar
Senate polls aren't particularly predictive at this stage of an election, and today's Boston Globe survey showing a dead heat between Sen. Scott Brown , R-Mass., and Democrat Elizabeth Warren (Brown 37, Warren 35) is indicati...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Romney Myth-Busting

By
President Obama was supposed to have a billion-dollar bankroll for his campaign, Rick Perry was going to be Mitt Romney’s chief challenger, and Rick Santorum assuredly would be an afterthought. But the biggest misconception this e...

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Why Obama Isn't Backing Gay Marriage

By Josh Kraushaar
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NEED TO KNOW: POLITICS

Obama’s Long Game on Energy

By Major Garrett, John Aloysius Farrell and
The president is highlighting alternative energy, not gas prices. Plus: Mitt’s Etch A Sketch problem and why February was cruel for candidates. Read More »

Republicans Drain Bank Accounts In February

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Numbers Racket

By
I’m a numbers guy. Growing up, I loved tracking baseball players’ statistics, and I was fascinated by election results. For those who follow my Twitter feed ( @hotlinejosh ), it’s filled with polling crosstabs and tidbits that...

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Cantor's Big-Time Political Blunder

By Josh Kraushaar
As Scott's excellent rundown of tomorrow's Illinois primaries shows , the contest between Reps. Adam Kinzinger , R-Ill, and Don Manzullo , R-Ill., will be a very important test of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor 's clout - and...

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Bill Maher: The Face of Priorities USA?

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Learning to Love the Super PAC

By
Last month, I argued that the influx of outside money into the political system was a boon for competition, putting on notice powerful incumbents from President Obama on down. And on the congressional side, we’re already beginning...

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Reality Check: It's Not Romney, It's The Rules

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Four Senate Questions

By
Reality clashes with conventional wisdom in some key battleground states. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Moderation Versus Conviction

By
The GOP Senate candidates are surprisingly moderate, while the Democrats are firmly liberal. So who prevails? Read More »

Dem Pollster: Voters Don't Think America's Back

By Josh Kraushaar
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Romney in a Michigan Rut

By Josh Kraushaar
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DECODED

The Third-Party Myth

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Case for Super PACs

By
President Obama’s 2012 retooled message is about fairness. If that’s the case, the president should learn to love super PACs and their influx of money into the campaign system—a development which, if nothing else, ensures a st...

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Santorum's Glaring Gender Gap

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Revisiting ‘That Vision Thing’

By
Lacking a clear message of why their ideas are better, Republicans could squander their chance to take the Senate and White House. Read More »

A Rust Belt Revival for President Obama?

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler to Retire

By and
Rep. Heath Shuler , D-N.C., will not seek reelection next year, according to sources close to the candidate. The retirement is bad news for Democrats seeking to regain control of the House. The seat is a likely pickup for Republica...

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Obama Fundraising Advantage Disappearing

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Searching for Connection

By
If there was a lesson to be learned from the 2010 Senate elections, it’s that the quality of candidates matters—a lot. That’s why now-Sen. Mark Kirk , R-Ill., was able to win comfortably in President Obama’s home state agai...

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Obama Struggling In Battleground States

By Josh Kraushaar
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Polls Show Split Opinion On Romney's Business Record

By Josh Kraushaar
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Hotline Sort: Republicans Endorse Casey Challenger

By Josh Kraushaar and Sean Sullivan
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. An under-the-radar Congressional special election wraps up tomorrow, as the date for a closely-watched one has been set. The Republican establishment rallies around a Casey challenger, but Pennsylvania...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Style vs. Substance

By
The postgame punditry out of South Carolina was that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich defeated former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney handily because voters were looking for the most conservative candidate. But that’s only part o...

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Hotline Sort: Artur Davis, From Obama To Bush

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. In today's edition: Brown and Warren agree to a cease-fire of sorts, Romney releases his taxes, Gingrich gets a little help from his friends, and is the former Speaker a Clinton clone? All that, and m...

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Battle For Cuban-American Hearts and Minds

By Josh Kraushaar
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CAMPAIGN 2012

Pew: Voters Care Less About Illegal Immigration, Environment

By Josh Kraushaar
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CAMPAIGN 2012

Romney Heads to Florida Fiery and No Longer Inevitable

By
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Mitt Romney started the week expecting to rack up his third consecutive Republican primary win in this state. Instead he belatedly lost Iowa and suffered a stinging setback here at the hands of Newt Gingrich. He he...

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A Tale Of Two Romney Surrogates

By Josh Kraushaar
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CAMPAIGN 2012

Colbert and Cain: Absurdist Politics in South Carolina

By
CHARLESTON, S.C.--How about this as a sign of how strange things have become in the Republican presidential race? Read More »
CAMPAIGN 2012

Tumultuous Final Days Muddy Romney-Gingrich Contest in South Carolina

By and
CHARLESTON, S.C. - Can Newt Gingrich consolidate enough conservative support to prevent front-runner Mitt Romney from notching a potentially decisive victory in Saturday's South Carolina primary? He's within range of an improbable S...

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Team Obama Raises A Red Flag

By Josh Kraushaar
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CAMPAIGN 2012

Romney's Lead is Fragile in South Carolina

By
SPARTANBURG, S.C. -- Mitt Romney's terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week is not the way any contender would hope to go into Saturday’s pivotal Republican primary here. But even as his rivals pile on over his tax rate , tax...

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Republicans Running Away From Reformist Roots

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Substance Trumps Style

By
If elections were judged on personality alone, Republican front-runner Mitt Romney would have his hands full against President Obama. Indeed, as Romney comes closer to locking up the Republican nomination, political commentators and...

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Romney Solidifies Standing as Rivals Miss Attack Opportunities

By Josh Kraushaar
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Obama's Florida Freefall

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Why the Veepstakes Matters for Romney

By
In the past, presidential nominees have chosen running mates who represented battleground states or appealed to certain demographic groups. If he emerges as the nominee, Mitt Romney would face somewhat different challenges: He needs...

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Huntsman's Play For Moderates

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Gallegly Retiring From Congress

By Josh Kraushaar
Rep. Elton Gallegly , R-Calif., announced he won't be running for a 14th term Saturday, a decision that allows Republicans to avoid a messy intraparty battle between two veteran members of Congress. Read More »

Romney's Iowa Report Card

By Josh Kraushaar
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Luck Of The Romney

By Josh Kraushaar
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Perry On Shaky Ground Attacking Santorum Electability

By Josh Kraushaar
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry lately has been ripping on Rick Santorum's electability credentials, attacking him for losing by 18 points in his 2006 re-election bid.  He did it again on MSNBC's "Daily Rundown" this morning,...

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Santorum Victory Dependent On Blue-Collar Voters

By Josh Kraushaar
In looking at whether Rick Santorum has a shot at winning the Iowa caucuses tomorrow night, pay close attention to the results coming from Davenport and Dubuque - the working-class cities in eastern Iowa that have as much in co...

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CAMPAIGN 2012

Poll: Romney With Narrow Lead Over Paul, Santorum

By
Mitt Romney has emerged as the frontrunner in Iowa but faces a threat from the surging campaign of Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, according to the pre-caucus Des Moines Register poll released Saturday evening. Read More »

Hotline Sort: Countdown To Caucuses

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to the pre-New Year's edition of Hotline Sort. In today's edition: A former Obama ally takes on the president again, in National Review. Virginia Republicans force presidential primary voters to take a loyalty oath. An...

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Romney: The New Frontrunner In Iowa

By Josh Kraushaar
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CAMPAIGN 2012

An Electoral College Tie?

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Gingrich Gamble

By
In reading Walter Isaacson’s biography of Apple CEO Steve Jobs, it’s difficult to reconcile the visionary icon Jobs became with the petulant executive who was ousted from his company. Jobs created a successful Fortune 500 compan...

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ANALYSIS

Romney Turns Up Heat Against Gingrich, With a Little Help From His Friends

By and
Mitt Romney's strategy is now clear: Use surrogates to rip apart Newt Gingrich while outside supporters spend prodigiously in Iowa to make a play for the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Read More »

Team Romney's Dilemma

By Josh Kraushaar
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Battleground-State Voters Leaving the Democratic Party

By Josh Kraushaar
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Gingrich May Not Qualify For Ohio Ballot

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Newt Moment

By
I’ll admit that I’m as surprised as anyone at the rise of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to the top of the Republican presidential field. Read More »

It's A Romney-Gingrich Race

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Obama Trying To Have It Both Ways

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Dem Recruit Attacks GOP Congressman for Backing Obama

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Democrats Bet the Senate on Women

By
If you want a sign of the gender gap in American politics, look no further than both parties’ Senate recruitment efforts. Read More »
CAMPAIGN 2012

Team Obama's Pathway to 270

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Stick a Fork in Them?

By
Thanksgiving is only a day away, and many members of the House will be returning to their districts thankful it’s not 2012 yet. With the public registering historic levels of dissatisfaction with Congress and redistricting imperil...

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Hotline Sort: A North Dakota Surprise?

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Democrats are getting excited about their prospects in North Dakota, Romney should be getting excited about some new poll numbers against Pres. Obama, and we're all excited for the Thanksgiving holiday...

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SENATE

The Hotline's Senate Race Rankings: 20 Seats Up for Grabs

By , and Quinn McCord
What goes around comes around. After losing virtually every toss-up Senate race in 2006, Republicans find themselves in prime position to pick up the four seats they need to control the Senate. And Democrats' success five years ago ...

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Obama's Virginia Versus Ohio Strategy, Take Two

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama’s Choice: Ohio or Virginia

By
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has been parodied for changing his positions over his political career. But when it comes to devising an election strategy for 2012, President Obama is the candidate at risk of being seen as a w...

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Romney Lowering The Stakes In Iowa

By Josh Kraushaar
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Frontrunners In Iowa Defying The Odds

By Josh Kraushaar
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CAMPAIGN 2012

A Tale of Two Kraushaars

By Josh Kraushaar
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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Republicans See 2012 Sweep

By
For conservative commentators concerned that this crop of Republican presidential candidates won’t spur a conservative revolution, think again. The likely Republican nominee—Mitt Romney—might not be in the mold of Ronald Reaga...

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Romney Crushes Perry In NBC/WSJ Poll

By Josh Kraushaar
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Poll: Voters Viewing Occupy Wall St. Unfavorably

By Josh Kraushaar
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CAMPAIGN 2012

Reading Between The Lines Of The Quinnipiac Poll

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
CAMPAIGN 2012

New Hampshire Picks Jan. 10; Primary Calendar Set

By
As anticipated, New Hampshire picks Jan. 10 for its primary and secures its status as first the nation. Read More »

Cain's Foreign Policy Flubs

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Democrats Bet on Populism

By
Democrats have been rediscovering their inner populist lately. President Obama is calling on the wealthiest Americans to pay their “fair share” in taxes. Elizabeth Warren, campaigning for the Senate in Massachusetts, has become ...

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Perry Doesn't Look Like The Comeback Kid

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Mack's Immigration Stance a Major Primary Problem

By Josh Kraushaar
Rep. Connie Mack 's entrance into the Florida Senate campaign will give political pundits another chance to see how potent an issue immigration will be within a Republican primary. Mack, who changed course and jumped into the camp...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Rise of the Republican Reformers

By
Republicans searching for a positive governing message that doesn’t rely exclusively on opposing President Obama need look no further than Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and his landslide reelection on Saturday. Jindal’s ambitious ...

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POLITICS

Obama Ally Speaks Out For Tougher Voter ID Laws

By Josh Kraushaar and Sean Sullivan
Former Alabama Rep. Artur Davis , an African-American Democrat who was one of President Obama 's close allies in Congress, wrote an op-ed in his hometown paper acknowledging voter fraud in his home state - and supporting voter-ide...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

The GOP’s Red-State Recruiting Blues

By
If pundits began the year predicting that Republicans would tout a top-tier recruit in Hawaii but have difficulty recruiting in more conservative states such as Nebraska and Missouri, they would have been laughed out of the room....

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POLITICS

House Democrats Diversifying Recruiting Class

By Josh Kraushaar
My column today looked at the challenges national Democrats are facing in landing a marquee Hispanic candidate for statewide office this election cycle. I argued that President Obama 's effort to personally recruit former Bush S...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Dems Lagging in Hispanic Recruitment

By
President Obama’s numbers are cratering with nearly every demographic, but the latest Gallup Poll shows his approval dropping most steeply among Latinos. It portends poorly not only for the president, but for a Democratic coalitio...

Read More »

Tammy Baldwin Supports Recall of Scott Walker

By Josh Kraushaar and Julie Sobel
As Wisconsin Democrats mount another recall campaign in an attempt to oust Republican Gov. Scott Walker from office, Rep. Tammy Baldwin , D-Wis., said she's fully behind the recall effort. Read More »

Hotline Sort: Try, Try Again

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Elizabeth Warren posts an eye-popping fundraising haul in Massachusetts, while David Dewhurst makes a strong statement in Texas. Romney is looking strong in New Hampshire and takes the lead in the I...

Read More »
POLITICS

Lingle Running For Senate In Hawaii

By Josh Kraushaar
Former Hawaii Republican governor Linda Lingle will announce she's running for the Senate for the seat of retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka , D-Hawaii, according to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser . Her decision gives Republicans a sho...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama’s Strategy at Odds With His Message

By
President Obama’s reelection is in trouble because of the nation’s troubled economy, but he’s been exacerbating his problems by running a populist campaign at odds with the electoral strategy his advisers have laid out. Not on...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama's Strategy at Odds with His Message

By
President Obama’s reelection is in trouble because of the nation’s rocky economy, but he’s been exacerbating his problems by running a populist campaign at odds with the electoral strategy his advisers have laid out. Not only ...

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CAMPAIGN 2012

New Jersey Gov. Christie: 'Now Is Not My Time'

By Beth Reinhard and
After being wooed by prominent Republicans around the country, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie announces he'll stay out of the contest for the GOP presidential nomination. The decision is good news for front-runner Mitt Romney. Read More »
CAMPAIGN 2012

Source: Christie to Cite Limited Time Frame as Reason for Staying Out

By and
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will announce on Tuesday afternoon that he will not run for president, ending weeks of intense speculation about his future, a Republican source confirmed to  National Journal.  His decision ...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

For Candidates, Outsider Status Becoming an Asset

By
The upcoming election will be featuring an electorate that lacks confidence in its political leaders—and that means political experience will be an albatross around many candidates’ necks in 2012. Read More »
POLITICS

Dem Poll: Obama Dragging Down His Own Party

By Josh Kraushaar and Jessica Taylor
One of the Democratic party's leading pollsters released a survey of 60 battleground districts today painting an ominous picture for Congressional Democrats in 2012. The poll shows Democratic House candidates faring worse than they...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Senate Races Play to Bases

By
The prospect of a presidential campaign between President Obama and Texas Gov. Rick Perry would mark one of the most polarizing contests in recent years, with each candidate appealing more to their party’s bases than to the indepe...

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POLITICS

Thompson Announces Senate Plans

By Josh Kraushaar
Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson announced that he's preparing to run for the Senate and has already filed campaign documents for the race, on WTMJ Radio . Read More »
CONGRESS

Rush Limbaugh's New York Election Secret

By Josh Kraushaar
Rep.-elect Bob Turner has a colorful resume: as a television syndication executive, he helped advance the careers of talk show hosts Jerry Springer and Sally Jesse Raphael. Less known was the fact that he helped launch conserva...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Rethinking the 2012 Landscape

By
For much of the year, the battle for control of Congress looked unclear. President Obama’s approval ratings were dropping, but Republicans in Congress were even more unpopular. Senate Democrats faced a tough landscape, defending m...

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CAMPAIGN 2012

Pawlenty Endorses Romney

By Josh Kraushaar
Former Republican presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty , who dropped out of the race last month, endorsed Mitt Romney for president, in an appearance on "Fox and Friends" this morning. Read More »

NRCC Preparing To Go All In To Win Weiner Seat

By Josh Kraushaar and Jessica Taylor
Sniffing an upset in Anthony Weiner 's old district, the National Republican Congressional Committee is preparing to spend significant money to counter a Democratic advertising wave. Read More »

New York Politicians: A Bunch of Losers

By Josh Kraushaar
Our indefatigable House Race Editor Jessica Taylor flagged a telling statistic in Wednesday's House Race Hotline that is even more notable with Democrats struggling to hold onto the seemingly-safe seat of former Rep. Anthony ...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Perry: Obama’s Worst Nightmare

By
Last month, I laid out the reasons why I thought Texas Gov. Rick Perry was the clear Republican front-runner. I’ll take it one step further: Perry would be a very formidable nominee against President Obama, and he poses a stronger...

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DCCC Poll: Weprin Leads Turner By 8

By Josh Kraushaar
One day after the campaign of Republican Bob Turner released a poll showing the special election in New York's Ninth District deadlocked, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put out its own internal poll, which showed ...

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Poll: Obama Continues To Struggle In Florida

By Josh Kraushaar
A clear majority of Florida voters disapproves of President Obama 's job performance, and Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by eight points in the key swing state, according to a new Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll rele...

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DCCC Edges NRCC In July

By Josh Kraushaar
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee narrowly outraised its Republican counterpart in the month of July, according to Federal Election Commission filings. The Democrats' House campaign arm brought in $4.02 million for the...

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POLITICS

Perry's Widespread Appeal In Texas

By Josh Kraushaar
My column this week sounded a bullish note on the primary and general election prospects of Texas Gov. Rick Perry , the latest Republican presidential flavor of the month, but one who looks to have real staying power. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Perry: The GOP Front-Runner

By
Rick Perry may sound like George W. Bush, but he could end up winning like Ronald Reagan.  Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Governors’ Races to Watch

By
The landscape for governors’ races over the next two years is remarkably different from the starkly red and blue ideological universe in which Congress operates. Read More »
POLITICS

Boehner Seeks Payback Against Jordan

By Josh Kraushaar
House Speaker John Boehner knows how to play hardball. Read More »

AAN Launches Ads In 22 Districts To Boost Republicans

By Josh Kraushaar
The GOP-aligned American Action Network is helping bolster some of the most vulnerable House Republicans with an advocacy campaign defending their records on Medicare. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama’s Battleground-State Blues

By
President Obama’s job approval rating in the latest national polls has been in the danger zone, ranging from 42 percent (Gallup) to 47 percent (ABC News/ Washington Post ), with every survey showing him with higher unfavorables th...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

House Race Scramble

By
Going after Republicans representing Democratic-leaning suburbs has been a key element of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s strategy to win control of the House. Read More »

Poll: Obama Trailing Romney In Iowa

By Josh Kraushaar
President Obama has a lot of catching up to do in Iowa, according to a new statewide poll that shows him trailing Republican Mitt Romney and holding only a small lead against Rep. Michele Bachmann , R-Minn. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Curious Case of Jon Huntsman

By
For a candidate barely registering in the polls, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has generated an awful lot of attention. His message of civility, appeal to independents, and rock-band-member biography have made him an irresistible fi...

Read More »

Balderas Lands Key Endorsement

By Josh Kraushaar
"The Senate needs more leaders like Hector Balderas. Leaders who reject the premise that 'fiscal responsibility' and 'accountability' are Republican words," Denish said in an email to supporters. "Leaders who recognize that typica...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

Rust Belt Paradox

By
Since his election, President Obama has lost ground in Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan thanks to the region’s struggling economy. It’s forced his campaign team to devote extra attention to keep the states ...

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POLITICS

Senate Fundraising: Early Winners And Losers

By Josh Kraushaar and Sean Sullivan
Senate fundraising numbers are just beginning to trickle in, but already we're seeing a pattern of some clear winners and those who didn't fare quite as well. Read More »

Hotline Sort: Shut It Down

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. In today's edition, Minnesota headed to shutdown mode, Glenn Beck leaves Fox, and a Thaddeus is running for president. Here's today's rundown: Read More »

Four Reasons Obama Is Probably Worried About Reelection

By Josh Kraushaar
It’s been a rough June for the White House. Instead of being able to run a campaign taking credit for economic improvement, President Obama will, according to the latest forecasts, be trying to win four more years amid a grim econ...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Nerves Show on Team Obama

By
It’s been a rough June for the White House. Instead of being able to run a campaign taking credit for economic improvement, President Obama will, according to the latest forecasts, be trying to win four more years amid a grim...

Read More »

Romney, Bachmann Top Republican Field In Iowa

By Josh Kraushaar
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann , R-Minn., are the two clear, early Republican frontrunners for the Iowa caucuses, according to the results of the first Des Moines Register poll released tonight . Read More »
POLITICS

Rove Group to Spend $20M on Obama Attack Ads

By
The conservative group American Crossroads' GPS policy arm is going up with a significant $5 million advertising campaign next week, attacking President Obama on the economy, according to a copy of the ad shared with National Journ...

Read More »
CAMPAIGN 2012

Crossroads Buys $20M In Anti-Obama Ads

By Josh Kraushaar
The conservative group Crossroads' GPS policy arm is going up with a significant $5 million advertising campaign next week, attacking President Obama on the economy, according to a copy of the ad shared with National Journal . Read More »
POLITICS

Inslee Running For Governor In Washington

By Kevin Brennan and Josh Kraushaar
Rep. Jay Inslee , D-Wash., will announce next week that he will run for governor, a Democratic source confirmed to Hotline On Call . Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The GOP Redistricting Advantage

By
When it comes to redistricting, it’s been a good month for Democrats. Read More »

Hotline Sort: In The Huntsman

By Josh Kraushaar
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Feinstein's numbers are close to the danger zone, Christie hits an all-time low in New Jersey, Obama courts the Jewish vote while Jon Huntsman kicks off his campaign and defends his work for the presi...

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AGAINST THE GRAIN

The States of Play

By
President Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008, but with a struggling economy, his campaign is focused on defending the gains he made.   Read More »

Reality Check: Obama's Tarheel Target

By Josh Kraushaar
Sometimes the spin from the White House is more telling based on what isn't said than what is. Read More »
HOUSE RACES

For Weiner’s House Seat, It’s a Waiting Game

By Jessica Taylor
New York and national Democrats aren’t readying for possible successors to embattled Rep. Anthony Weiner—yet. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama the Underdog

By
What a difference a week makes. Read More »
POLITICS

A Republican Surge In Weiner's District

By Josh Kraushaar
Much of the attention being paid to Rep. Anthony Weiner , D-N.Y., is focused on the salacious - whether he sent the lewd picture to a college undergrad or whether he was the victim of a grand hoax. Few are talking about the possibi...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Things to Come

By
This Memorial Day weekend marked the (almost) half-way point of 2011, a time when the rubber begins to hit the road for the Republican presidential primary and the battles for control of Congress. Read More »

Saving Private Ryan

By Josh Kraushaar and Sean Sullivan
Republicans are quickly learning that not every one of their members is Paul Ryan . And that's becoming a problem as the party's rank-and-file tries to defend his far-reaching entitlement reform package to constituents back home. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Underdogs Show Strength

By
It was striking Monday watching a split-screen of President Obama speaking in front of thousands of adoring fans in Ireland, next to footage of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty launching his presidential campaign to significantly ...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Laboring Under a New World

By
When Sen. Herb Kohl , D-Wis., announced his retirement Friday, some union backers cheered, believing the newly competitive Wisconsin Senate seat would give them an opportunity to prove that once and for all, Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scot...

Read More »

Klobuchar Getting First GOP Challenger

By Josh Kraushaar
Former Minnesota state Rep. Dan Severson (R) will announce Monday that he is challenging Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), according to a Republican operative familiar with his decision. Severson will become the first Republican to...

Read More »

Kohl Not Running For Re-Election

By Sean Sullivan and Josh Kraushaar
Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) announced Friday that he will not run for re-election in 2012, putting a battleground seat Democrats have held for over five decades squarely in play for the upcoming elections. Read More »

Republicans Play The Pelosi Card In NY-26

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

A Very Special Election

By
A once-sleepy House race in western New York is heating up, once again offering proof of why special elections matter. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Presidency at a Crossroads

By
The killing of Osama bin Laden is a telling example of the maxim to expect the unexpected. Just when President Obama looked like he was hitting his administration’s nadir, he oversaw top-secret efforts to kill the world’s most w...

Read More »

Video: Gov. Mitch Daniels Could be GOP's Best Bet Against Obama

By
With a strong record as a fiscal conservative, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels might be the most competitive contender for Republicans in 2012 -- if he decides to run. Read More »

N2K: Is Mitch Daniels the GOP's Best Bet Against Obama?

With a strong record as a fiscal conservative, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels might be the most competitive contender for Republicans in 2012 -- IF he decides to run. Read More »
POLITICS

Gallup: Seniors Most Favorable To Ryan Budget

By Josh Kraushaar
A new Gallup/USA Today poll contains a counterintuitive finding: the age group most receptive to House Budget Chair Paul Ryan 's plan to deal with the budget - seniors. Read More »
NEED-TO-KNOW VIDEO

N2K: Why the Hispanic Vote Will Matter in 2012

President Obama won't be able to bank on owning the Hispanic vote in 2012. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Latinos Taking on the Establishment

By
In a state with the highest Hispanic population in the country, both parties are spurning Hispanic candidates in favor of Anglo political veterans. Read More »

After Ensign, Nevada Is A Battleground On Steroids

By Josh Kraushaar
I just wrote about the national importance of the Nevada Senate race in my column this week, and Sen. John Ensign 's sudden decision to resign early next month makes this state even more pivotal for the White House and congressio...

Read More »
ANALYSIS

After Ensign, Nevada is a Battleground on Steroids

By
I just wrote about the national importance of the Nevada Senate race in my column this week, and Sen. John Ensign’s sudden decision to resign next month makes this state even more pivotal for the White House and congressional...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Virginia and Nevada Senate Races Take On Outsized Importance

By
Two marquee Senate races could serve as barometers for the nation's mood heading into the 2012 campaign. Read More »
POLITICS

Targeted House Members Struggling To Fundraise

By Jessica Taylor and Josh Kraushaar
House Republican freshmen entered office with a mandate to cut spending, but some of their early fundraising totals suggest they're showing similar fiscal discipline with their campaign accounts. Read More »
POLITICS

DSCC's Mystery Candidate Revealed In Texas

By Josh Kraushaar
It looks like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's secret recruit in the Texas Senate race has been unveiled. Read More »

Out Of Congress, Grayson Still Outraising GOP Congressman

By Josh Kraushaar
One of the weaker fundraising efforts in the House this quarter - at least for a member facing the prospect of a competitive race -- comes from freshman Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), who only raised $30,000 in the first three mont...

Read More »
POLITICS

Hispanic Growth Ahead of Political Participation

By Josh Kraushaar
The Texas Tribune's Ross Ramsey makes an important point that often gets overlooked in the discussion about rapid Hispanic growth across the country. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Storm Clouds Ahead for Obama

By
Since the beginning of the year, the conventional wisdom has held that President Obama looks like the favorite to win reelection. Read More »

Game-Changer In Wisconsin

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Obama Approval Numbers Weak In Florida

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Truce Shall Set You Free

By
Republicans are living in Mitch Daniels’s shadow, but they hardly know it. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

2012’s Known Unknowns

By
Political handicapping has always been an inexact science, if not a foolhardy undertaking.    Read More »

Pawlenty Rolls Out Finance Team

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Mack Not Running For Senate

By Sean Sullivan and Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Franks Skips Border Security Event With Flake, McCain

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Hitting McCaskill Where It Hurts

By Sean Sullivan and Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Obama Struggling In Pennsylvania

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

For Obama, Virginia Is the Next Ohio

By
Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine’s inching progress toward a Senate campaign in Virginia underscores how important the Old Dominion will be for President Obama’s reelection prospects. Kaine would be the first sig...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

North by Southwest

By
For a peek at Republicans’ long-term prospects, look no further than three critical Senate contests in the Southwest. One leans Republican (Arizona), one is a true toss-up (Nevada), and the third tilts Democratic (New Mexico). Read More »

DCCC's Limited Options For Many At-Risk Dems

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Labor Loses Big In Ohio

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

That Vision Thing

By
Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker is in need of, as former President George H.W. Bush once famously said, that vision thing. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Status Quo Presidency

By
President Obama has chosen to play the political equivalent of the prevent defense as his reelection campaign approaches by deferring tough decisions on entitlements.  Read More »
HOUSE RACES

Another Empire State Showdown Looms

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

All the President’s Men (and Women)

By
When President Obama took office, he tapped a slew of sitting senators to serve in his administration—Joe Biden as vice president, Hillary Rodham Clinton as secretary of State, Ken Salazar as Interior secretary—moves that brough...

Read More »

Hatch Takes On His Critics

By Lindsey Boerma and Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Haridopolos' Million Dollar Haul

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
CONGRESS

Two GOP Senate Hopefuls Help Block PATRIOT Act

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Bye-Bye Blue Dogs

By
The Blue Dog Democrats, long one of the most pivotal factions on Capitol Hill, are quickly finding out that their bark is greater than their bite. Read More »
NEED-TO-KNOW VIDEO

N2K: Dwindling Dogs

Blue Dogs are on the endangered species list. National Journal Hotline Executive Editor Josh Kraushaar has some tips on how the moderate Democrats can hold onto their seats in 2012. Read More »

Tea Party's First Target: Richard Lugar

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

GOP Marching to a Senate Majority

By
Republicans have spent the first month of the year landing a slate of top-tier Senate candidates for 2012, which has already put the majority tantalizingly in reach.   Read More »

N2K: Four Seats that Could Turn the Senate

National Journal Hotline's Executive Editor Josh Kraushaar on the uphill battle Dems face in 2012. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Tea Party Rising

By
Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., upstaged House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., by delivering her own State of the Union response, courtesy of the Tea Party Express, but that’s merely the latest high-profile instance in which th...

Read More »

The Secret to Obama's Rebound

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Education of President Obama

By
President Obama hasn’t even delivered his State of the Union yet, and he’s already rehabilitated his presidency to the point that the disastrous midterms seem like a distant memory. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Stop the Blame Game

By
The senseless shooting in Tucson brought out the best from our political class. Unfortunately, it also accentuated the media's worst tendencies. Read More »
HOUSE LEADERSHIP

On Ceremonial Vote, 19 Democrats Abandon Pelosi

By and
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi , D-Calif., won the vast majority of Democratic votes for speaker, but she faces a caucus in which about one in 10 members voted publicly for someone else. Read More »

19 Dems Abandon Pelosi

By Josh Kraushaar and Reid Wilson
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Obama and the Seven Dwarfs

By
This New Year brought little in the way of the presidential cattle call—save a surprise admission from former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman that he wasn’t ruling out running.  Huntsman, who two years ago was cast as a new breed of...

Read More »
POLITICS

Bump On The Chris Christie Bandwagon

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
POLITICS

The Political Earthquake

By
Rarely do you see conventional wisdom turned on its head in a matter of days, but it happened in record time thanks to an unanticipated flurry of activity in the Capitol before recess. Read More »
POLITICS

You Ask, We'll Tell: 4 Big Winners From DADT

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Against the Grain Awards

By
It’s been a wild year, and what better way to cap it than with the first annual “Against the Grain” awards? Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Looming Republican Civil War

By
It’s friendly fire time at the GOP corral. Read More »

Artur Davis Taking On The Establishment

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Forgetting Sarah Steelman

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Perdue Named DGA Vice Chair

By Jeremy P. Jacobs and Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Democrats’ Diversity Problem

By
Democrats have a diversity problem. Read More »

Lugar's Votes Inviting Tough Re-Election

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

The Race To The Top

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

McNerney Wins Third Term

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide

By
No development will affect the political landscape more in 2011 than the decennial process of redrawing the district boundaries for members of the House. Read More »
POLITICS

Rep. Melissa Bean Comes Up Short in Final Count

By Cameron Joseph and
Rep. Melissa Bean , D-Ill., has called her Republican challenger, Joe Walsh, to concede defeat. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Democrats' Losses Could Grow in 2012

By
It doesn't take a crystal ball to understand that the short-term trends look dismal for Democrats. Read More »

Pelosi's Path Back to Leadership

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Too Close To Call: Update On Deadlocked Races

By Jeremy P. Jacobs and Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
POLITICS

Harry Reid's Great Opportunity

By
Could the Senate majority leader be the real candidate of hope and change?     Read More »

Immigration: Losing Issue For GOP Out West

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

It's Not Just The Economy

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

As Dems Lose House, Pelosi Says House Took 'Courageous Action'

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Reid Stuns Angle, Wins Another Term

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Bringing Up Boehner

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Cantor Pining For A Health Care Fight

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

No Course Correction For The White House?

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Paul Claims Tea Party Mandate

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

The West Coast Waiting Game

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »

Health Care Is Ailing Democrats

By Josh Kraushaar
Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Health Care Is Ailing Democrats

By
Forget the outside money and the economy. Hotline columnist Josh Kraushaar says the Democrats in deepest trouble this year are the ones who stuck with President Obama on health care. Read More »

Revenge Of The Right

By
One of the dominant myths of this election season is that Republicans have nominated too-extreme Tea Party candidates that are not electable in general elections, making it  difficult for them  to maximize their gains. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Real Story On Campaign Money

By Josh Kraushaar
In the final weeks before the midterm elections, President Obama has adopted an inside-baseball closing argument against Republicans: campaign finance. Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and the Democratic National Committee have now p...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Dems' Optimism A House Of Cards

By Josh Kraushaar
House Democrats have begun sounding an optimistic note that they will avoid a midterm wipeout as the base starts tuning in, campaigns engage, and President Obama travels the country reminding voters of the stakes. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Can The Tea Party Govern?

By Josh Kraushaar
For a real sense of whether the Tea Party is a short-term fad or a long-term force, look no further than the gubernatorial landscape. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

What Ohio Tells Us About Obama

By Josh Kraushaar
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/what_ohio_tells.php Read More »

When Polls Trump Common Sense

By Josh Kraushaar
We've lost a lot of old-fashioned common sense in evaluating and understanding races and have become beholden to numbers at the expense of states' and districts' fundamental characteristics and candidates' and campaigns' own unique ...

Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

When Money Doesn't Matter

By Josh Kraushaar
The volatile political environment makes the money picture look like less of an advantage for Democrats. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

The Five House Bellwethers

By Josh Kraushaar
Look to these races for a sense of whether the wave will be large enough to sweep in a Republican majority. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

GOP Should Follow Christie Playbook

By Josh Kraushaar
The New Jersey governor may not be running for president in 2012, but he's articulated an economic vision that's well-positioned to gain momentum. Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Tempest Over A Tea Party

By Josh Kraushaar
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/08/tempest_over_a.php Read More »
AGAINST THE GRAIN

Senate In Play, With Or Without Reid

By JOSH KRAUSHAAR
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/08/senate_in_play.php Read More »
SENATE RACES

Bennet Defeats Romanoff, Will Face Buck

By Josh Kraushaar and Jamie Shufflebarger, Hotline On Call
Appointed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet prevailed in his first-ever election Tuesday, surviving a late round of attacks from primary challenger Andrew Romanoff. He will face Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, a favorite of C...

Read More »
SEE MORE
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