Senate Republicans can point to a few snippets of good news from the past few months, but the 2008 map remains as lopsided as ever in favor of the Democrats. There's no denying that three Republican seats (Virginia, New Mexico, and New Hampshire) would probably fall to the Democrats if the election were held tomorrow, with one or two more GOP seats teetering on the edge of the knife. Meanwhile, Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu remains the only vulnerable Democrat (although Republicans are keeping an eye on a couple more states just in case).

Perhaps the best news for the GOP is that blue-state Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Gordon Smith, R-Ore., haven't been softened up yet and still appear to be in fairly solid shape.

These rankings are ordered by likelihood to switch party control (i.e., the top-ranked race is the seat most likely to flip) and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Roll over state names for links to more news about that particular race, available to Hotline subscribers only.

The Top Ten  Rank  State  Incumbent/Party Previous  1 VIRGINIA Open Seat (R-Warner) Last Ranking: 1 Moderate Republicans should probably be glad that Jim Gilmore, not Tom Davis, was their nominee. In future statewide nominating contests, moderates might well say to conservatives, "We tried it your way the last few times and it didn't work." Tip Sheet 2 NEW MEXICO Open Seat (R-Domenici) Last Ranking: -- If Tom Udall wins by 15 points or more, and if the GOP loses all three U.S. House seats, it may indicate the end of New Mexico as a presidential battleground. Tip Sheet 3 NEW HAMPSHIRE John Sununu (R) Last Ranking: 2 Republicans insist John Sununu has pulled within striking distance of Jeanne Shaheen, which may be the case. But how does an incumbent win when he trails his challenger in every single poll? Tip Sheet 4 COLORADO Open Seat (R-Allard) Last Ranking: 3 Republicans had better hope Bob Schaffer doesn't lose worse than the 57%-40% margin by which they lost the governor's race in 2006. They just can't afford to have recruitment problems in a state like Colorado, with Senate and gubernatorial races coming up in 2010. Tip Sheet 5 LOUISIANA Mary Landrieu (D) Last Ranking: 4 Given the dearth of consistent polling data, many pundits put this race to bed awhile ago, assuming there was no way any incumbent Democratic senator could lose in an environment such as this. In other parts of the country that would certainly be true, but Louisiana is one state that still seems to be trending Republican, and Mary Landrieu could be in for yet another squeaker. Tip Sheet 6 MINNESOTA Norm Coleman (R) Last Ranking: 5 This race has been within the margin of error for a couple months now, though Norm Coleman seems now to be inching up towards the higher end of that range. Given Al Franken's baggage, and the number of mini-scandals Norm Coleman has had to endure this cycle, this is one of those races where it's amazing that either candidate could actually win. Tip Sheet 7 MAINE Susan Collins (R) Last Ranking: 6 Susan Collins still seems headed for a win, and there are murmurings she might even surpass her 59%-41% margin of victory in 2002. Given the difference in the national environment in 2008 compared to that year, such a landslide would be quite an amazing accomplishment. Tip Sheet 8 OREGON Gordon Smith (R) Last Ranking: 7 For one of the closest Senate races in the country, there hasn't been much public polling conducted here over the past month. But even in Gordon Smith's own poll, he's held to 45%, and he seems to be trailing slightly in most others. Given the sizeable victory that Barack Obama will probably win in this state, a Smith win would be something of a minor upset at this point. Tip Sheet 9 ALASKA Ted Stevens (R) Last Ranking: 9 Perhaps Alaska Republicans should adopt the motto that Louisiana Democrats chose when Edwin Edwards faced off against David Duke in the 1991 Louisiana Governor's race: "Vote for the crook -- It's important." By the way, it seems likely that about 30,000 absentee/early votes were cast before Ted Stevens' conviction was announced. Tip Sheet 10 MISSISSIPPI Roger Wicker (R) Last Ranking: -- Roger Wicker seems a bit safer than his colleague to the east, Saxby Chambliss, but he too will have to contend with an increased black voter turnout, which will probably keep this race tight. Tip Sheet

The Rest

Rank	State	Incumbent/Party	Previous

	11	KENTUCKY	Mitch McConnell (R)	Last Ranking: --

	12	NORTH CAROLINA	Elizabeth Dole (R)	Last Ranking: --

	13	NEW JERSEY	Frank Lautenberg (D)	Last Ranking: --

	14	SOUTH DAKOTA	Tim Johnson (D)	Last Ranking: 10

	15	NEBRASKA	Open Seat (R-Hagel)	Last Ranking: 8

	16	TEXAS	John Cornyn (R)	Last Ranking: --

	17	OKLAHOMA	James Inhofe (R)	Last Ranking: --

	18	MONTANA	Max Baucus (D)	Last Ranking: --

	19	IOWA	Tom Harkin (D)	Last Ranking: --

	20	IDAHO	Open Seat (R-Craig)	Last Ranking: --

	21	GEORGIA	Saxby Chambliss (R)	Last Ranking: --

	22	SOUTH CAROLINA	Lindsey Graham (R)	Last Ranking: --

	23	ALABAMA	Jeff Sessions (R)	Last Ranking: --

	24	ARKANSAS	Mark Pryor (D)	Last Ranking: --

	25	MASSACHUSETTS	John Kerry (D)	Last Ranking: --

	26	MICHIGAN	Carl Levin (D)	Last Ranking: --

	27	WEST VIRGINIA	Jay Rockefeller (D)	Last Ranking: --

	28	ILLINOIS	Richard Durbin (D)	Last Ranking: --

	29	KANSAS	Pat Roberts (R)	Last Ranking: --

	30	TENNESSEE	Lamar Alexander (R)	Last Ranking: --

	31	DELAWARE	Joseph Biden (D)	Last Ranking: --

	32	MISSISSIPPI	Thad Cochran (R)	Last Ranking: --

	33	WYOMING	John Barrasso (R)	Last Ranking: --

	34	WYOMING	Michael Enzi (R)	Last Ranking: --

	35	RHODE ISLAND	Jack Reed (D)	Last Ranking: --

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