2006 Governor Race Rankings
© National Journal Group Inc.
Monday, Nov. 6, 2006
At this point, if Republicans can hold one or both of the Minnesota and Maryland governorships, the RGA would call '06 a success (or, more correctly, not a disaster). In '94, the surprising winners were mostly House members. In this potential wave, it appears the shockers are going to be governors, possibly in states like Idaho and Nevada as well as the two mentioned above.
The Top 20
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Rank
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State
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Incumbent/Party
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Previous
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1
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NEW YORK
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 1
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"Faso" your seatbelts, NY Republicans; Spitzer will make Tuesday a bumpy ride.
Tip Sheet
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2
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OHIO
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 2
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It's amazing the pull Blackwell has with national conservatives. '08 GOP wannabes continue to pay him homage even though he appears to be a "Sixth Sense" candidate -- everyone knows he's dead but him.
Tip Sheet
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3
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MASSACHUSETTS
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 3
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In the top five, the races are ordered according to how big the margin of victory will be. And it appears Patrick will have the third highest margin of victory in a race that will flip party control of the governor's office.
Tip Sheet
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4
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COLORADO
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 4
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There's still a living, breathing Republican Party in the state, and that means Ritter's winning margin over Beauprez will be smaller than the polls have shown.
Tip Sheet
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5
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ARKANSAS
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 5
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Speaking of shrinking victory margins: of all the absolute, lead-pipe lock switches in my rankings, the Beebe-Hutchinson margin will be the smallest.
Tip Sheet
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6
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MINNESOTA
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Tim Pawlenty (R)
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Last Ranking: 6
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It seems as if Minnesota is turning into a problem for the GOP up and down the ballot. Pawlenty's problem is his party I.D. Still, the Independence Party candidate could pull enough anti-Pawlenty votes from Hatch to re-elect the incumbent.
Tip Sheet
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7
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MARYLAND
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Bob Ehrlich (R)
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Last Ranking: 7
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O'Malley hasn't trailed in months (maybe ever), but Ehrlich has been making the race closer by the week, even the day. I'd probably still put a pinky on the scale for O'Malley, but only a pinky. Ehrlich has won the campaign but may not win the election.
Tip Sheet
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8
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OREGON
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Ted Kulongoski (D)
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Last Ranking: 8
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Is the blue-ness of Oregon just too much for Saxton to overcome? Based on a recent ad where he directly talks about the national climate, it's clear they are having problems closing the deal. Kulongoski can take heart in the fact that he may not be the most unpopular re-elected governor in the country. That title would belong to Blagojevich.
Tip Sheet
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9
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NEVADA
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 9
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We've seen two polls this week, both showing Gibbons ahead but Titus making gains. The "Friday the 13th" cocktail waitress debacle is not going away. Gibbons can only hope that folks vote "None of the Above" (an actual choice on Nev. ballots) rather than Titus.
Tip Sheet
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10
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IDAHO
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 12
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I can't believe I have this race above Iowa. But that's how this cycle has gone for the GOP. Otter always had scars that could become problems under some circumstances. Word is he's finally starting to show positive movement over Brady, but it's still tight.
Tip Sheet
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11
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WISCONSIN
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James Doyle (D)
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Last Ranking: 10
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Doyle hasn't escaped the danger zone, but Green's still bogged down with money issues. If Green loses, he will curse the names "McCain" and "Feingold" for years to come. The national law was supposed to make transferring federal funds easy, but Wis. has yet to rule.
Tip Sheet
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12
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FLORIDA
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 14
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I think the polls showing Crist-Davis tightening is more about natural closing for the Democrat than real momentum. But this is a swing state, and if the breeze is blowing in the Dems' direction, Davis should overperform. Enough for victory? Don't think so.
Tip Sheet
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13
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ALASKA
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 11
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Knowles has really turned his fortunes around against Palin. The questioning of Palin's "readiness" for the job may have caused Palin some problems winning over Republican men. Gender was always a hidden potential benefit for Knowles.
Tip Sheet
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14
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MAINE
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John Baldacci (D)
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Last Ranking: 18
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Baldacci may now have put Woodcock away. A few more dollars and a much different national environment were needed for the GOP in this one.
Tip Sheet
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15
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IOWA
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Open Seat (D)
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Last Ranking: 13
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There's little optimism among national Republicans about Nussle's chances. Culver's caught every break, including running in a year when being an (R) isn't a good thing.
Tip Sheet
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16
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MICHIGAN
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Jennifer Granholm (D)
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Last Ranking: 15
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All signs point to Granholm surviving. DeVos may have peaked too soon. If this election were in August, the state would have a new governor.
Tip Sheet
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17
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ILLINOIS
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Rod Blagojevich (D)
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Last Ranking: 19
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Keep an eye on Illinois' version of "none of the above." The Green Party candidate is polling in double digits and may get to 15 percent -- simply the percentage of voters who can't hold their noses to vote for either of the two major nominees.
Tip Sheet
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18
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TEXAS
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Rick Perry (R)
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Last Ranking: 16
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If there is a surprise on election night, I think it would come in Texas. The electorate is still so unstable in the state thanks to the quartet of serious candidates. Perry should win, but his margin will be less than five points. I think Bell's making a move, but Strayhorn and Friedman are still polling too high to put the Dem over the top.
Tip Sheet
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19
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RHODE ISLAND
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Donald Carcieri (R)
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Last Ranking: 17
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Carcieri finally appears to have gotten out of the danger zone, but don't be surprised if Fogarty closes the gap in the next few days.
Tip Sheet
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20
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SOUTH CAROLINA
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Mark Sanford (R)
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Last Ranking: 20
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Look for national conservatives to start touting Sanford for President.
Tip Sheet
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These races are all but over.
The Rest
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Rank
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State
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Incumbent/Party
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Previous
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21
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CALIFORNIA
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Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)
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Last Ranking: 21
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22
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OKLAHOMA
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Brad Henry (D)
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Last Ranking: 22
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23
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ARIZONA
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Janet Napolitano (D)
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Last Ranking: 23
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25
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GEORGIA
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Sonny Perdue (R)
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Last Ranking: 25
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26
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VERMONT
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Jim Douglas (R)
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Last Ranking: 26
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28
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ALABAMA
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Bob Riley (R)
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Last Ranking: 28
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29
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TENNESSEE
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Phil Bredesen (D)
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Last Ranking: 29
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30
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KANSAS
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Kathleen Sebelius (D)
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Last Ranking: 30
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32
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WYOMING
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Dave Freudenthal (D)
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Last Ranking: 32
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34
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NEW MEXICO
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Bill Richardson (D)
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Last Ranking: 34
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35
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NEBRASKA
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Dave Heineman (R)
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Last Ranking: 35
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36
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HAWAII
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Linda Lingle (R)
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Last Ranking: 36
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Chuck Todd is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor and editor in chief of The Hotline. His e-mail address is ctodd@nationaljournal.com.
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