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Toward A More Moderate Congress
by Heather Greenfield
Democrats need to gain 15 seats in the Nov. 7 election to win control of the House and six to take over the Senate, and they look to be in a good position to do so.
Predictions for House pickups range from 12 to 18 among some Republican groups and 18 to 22 among Democratic-leaning or independent political scientists and think tanks. Alan Abramowitz of Emory University in Atlanta used a computer model last month to forecast that Democrats would gain 29 House seats.
Whether Democrats gain control of either chamber, political scientists do agree on one thing: Whichever party does have control likely will lead by a narrow margin. With that in mind, people already are looking at what the narrow margins mean for strategy and whether moderates -- seen as key to negotiating compromises to move legislation -- will gain a greater voice in Congress.
The Election Battles Come First
When Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y., retires at the end of the year, one thing he will not miss is the atmosphere on Capitol Hill, which he described at a hearing this summer as growing more contentious than ever. The moderate Republican leaves Congress after serving for 24 years.
Several moderate candidates who are running for re-election this cycle, meanwhile, have found themselves between Iraq and a hard place as they try to keep their seats. Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., has had to walk a fine line to keep his party's backing without losing that of his constituents. Shays has supported the war in Iraq, but recently called on Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to resign.
Shays has accepted a campaign visit from White House spokesman Tony Snow but in the same week denounced the National Republican Congressional Committee for a mailing against his opponent that Shays told reporters was "gross, despicable and totally counterproductive." The mailer accuses Democrat Diane Farrell of supporting negotiations with terrorists. Polls show Farrell and Shays tied.
Other moderates, including Sens. Lincoln Chafee, R-R.I. and Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., faced trouble in their primaries from more extreme elements of their parties questioning their loyalty. In both cases Web logs championed opponents. Although moderate blogs exist, the more popular ones tend to be the more extreme, leaning either liberal or conservative.
Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, does not blame the blogs for polarization so much as the nominating process within the parties. Sabato said he does not like to give blogs too much credit, wondering who has time to read them. "I don't," he said. "I can barely keep up with the mainstream media."
While polls now show Lieberman leading in the general election, Chafee's chances for re-election are not as strong. Republicans are coming to his aid even though Chafee voted against the Iraq war and against President Bush in the 2004 presidential election. Those votes are not stopping recent advertisements that alternate between pictures of Bush and Chafee as an announcer says: "Bush needs Chafee in the Senate. Doesn't that tell us everything we need to know?"
Just A New Recipe For Gridlock?
House Government Reform Committee Chairman Tom Davis, R-Va., said a loss of moderates this election cycle "would end up polarizing things even more." "I'm not optimistic at all for any kind of kinder, gentler situation, not until 2008," Sabato added.
He said moderates could gain more of a voice after the election cycle if "the handful of moderates left in both parties could come together" on issues. But Sabato said "the party divisions are intense, and moderates have to be careful about being seen as disloyal."
Josh Ackle, a government relations specialist at the Information Technology Industry Council, however, is optimistic moderates will gain clout in Congress. "Regardless of whether the House flips, Democrats will pick up seats," Ackle said. "The middle block will have more say in a majority party than they do now."
Ackle said that if the Democrats are in charge, the new House Speaker will have to approach moderates in the party -- Blue Dogs and New Democrats -- to bolster support before going to the Republicans to find more votes. It is the same process in reverse of what Republicans do now to pass legislation, he said.
Shays also said this month that if Democrats win control of the House, they will need moderates like him to get anything done.
But Sabato is skeptical that a House or Senate held by narrower majorities would empower moderates. "If the division ends up being one or two seats, everyone is going to be empowered -- liberals, moderates, conservatives," he said.
Even then, he added, empowered and power to accomplish anything are quite different. "The next two years will almost certainly be a period of gridlock," Sabato predicted.
While Sabato is optimistic that Democrats will "do well" in the election, he is not optimistic that will mean much in terms of what legislation a Democratic House or a Senate can pass. "It's tough enough to get anything done in the Senate with 55 votes," Sabato said, referring to the current Republican majority. Sixty votes are needed to limit debate on bills.
Davis believes that a Democratic takeover of the House will not help the legislative process. "The reality is going to be gridlock because you still have a Senate [likely controlled by Republicans] that makes it difficult to get anything done," he said.
Hope For A Do-Something Congress
Some tech industry lobbyists have expressed frustration at the sparse legislative activity this year, despite one-party control of the House, Senate and White House.
Competitiveness issues are a top priority, and while Congress made progress in introducing legislation to increase H-1B visas for skilled foreign workers, extend the research and development tax credit, authorize programs to improve mathematics and science education, and increase funding for basic research, only the basic research funding has been addressed.
"We're disappointed the R&D tax credit has not been restored 10 months after it expired," said Andrea Hoffman, vice president of TechNet, but she remains optimistic that the tech industry can work with any Congress that is elected. "Regardless of how it goes we have support on both sides of the aisle for our issues," she said. She hopes the election will create "a new playing field" that "tones down" hostility on Capitol Hill.
"The better the atmosphere on the Hill, the better chance anyone has to move legislation forward," Hoffman said. She said issues like the R&D tax credit have broad bipartisan support, but that support simply backfired before the election when Republican leaders unsuccessfully linked the topic to a tax reduction for people inheriting multimillion-dollar estates.
Ackle and Hoffman hope the post-election session of Congress will be a time when Democrats and Republicans seek agreement and take action. "Regardless of the outcome [of the election], we feel confident our issues resonate and both sides understand our issues," Hoffman said.
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