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The Science Of Labor Shortages
by Randy Barrett
The technology industry and leading universities warn that America is producing too few scientists and engineers to keep the United States competitive globally. But so far there are no signs of a labor shortage.
A recent study by the National Academy of Sciences called for "10,000 new science and math teachers for 10 million minds." It recommends funding 25,000 science-teaching scholarships, among other efforts to boost the population of U.S. scientists and engineers. "We must encourage U.S. students from all sectors of our society to participate in science, mathematics and engineering programs at least at the level of those who would be our competitors," the report said.
About 6 percent of American undergraduates study engineering, compared with 12 percent in Europe, 20 percent in Singapore and 40 percent in China, the study said.
University research advocates cite declining American enrollments in graduate engineering as a sure sign of trouble. But the data show that only Caucasian students are choosing the field less often. Enrollment for that group stood at 38,000 in 2001, down from a high of 57,000 in 1993, according to the National Science Board. Black and Hispanic graduate-student rates held steady.
The number of foreign nationals studying engineering at U.S. universities, meanwhile, rose steadily, from 39,000 in 1993 to 51,000 in 2001. The influx effectively offset the decline of white students, the board said.
What Shortage?
Since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, tech and university leaders have warned that immigration restrictions could harm U.S. competitiveness, as fewer top students seek to enter American universities or return home quickly after securing their degrees.
But while the Institute of International Education said the number of foreign nationals enrolled in U.S. colleges and universities fell in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks, the decline slowed to 1 percent during the 2004-2005 academic year and appears to be holding steady at about 565,000 students. China remains the largest sender of students to American schools.
Nor is there much sign of a pending shortage of American physical scientists or engineers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The agency predicts that engineering positions will grow 16 percent, to 550,000, by 2014. That will require about 20,000 new engineers per year. In 2000, U.S. schools graduated 60,000 engineers, which raises the specter of unemployment, said a Commerce Department official.
"The [job] demand is in information technology -- period," the official said. According to bureau projections, the need for IT jobs will skyrocket 77 percent, to 1 million jobs, by 2014. There also likely will be more need for scientists in areas such as nanotechnology and bioinformatics, the official said.
The laws of supply and demand also do not appear to indicate a dearth in jobs because science and engineering salaries have not skyrocketed. "That suggests there isn't a shortage now," said Charlotte Kuh, deputy executive director of the policy and global affairs division in the National Research Council.
According to the National Science Foundation, the median salary for physical scientists stood at $82,600 in 2001, up from $76,700 in 1995. Engineers fared slightly better, with an 11 percent increase that put the median salary at $90,500 per year.
The Math: No Science Equals No Industry
Critics contend that university and high-tech demands for more U.S. scientists are largely self-serving. "There is a tendency for organizations [that] have nothing to lose with having excess to continue asking for excess," said a researcher who follows scientist staffing trends.
Generating more scientists will drive down salaries, the Commerce Department official said. "Companies benefit from highly talented and less expensive workers," he said.
But both university researchers and high-tech lobbyists argue that American competitiveness depends on generating more minds trained in science, math and engineering. They argue that those experts will create the next generation of ideas and products.
"If you don't have scientists, you won't have industry," said Mary Good, a former undersecretary for technology during the Clinton administration and now dean of information science at the University of Arkansas. "It's a chicken-and-egg problem, and it's pretty damn straightforward."
For tech companies, it does not really matter where the chicken or egg originates. Industry has pushed Congress hard to increase the number of H-1B visas for highly skilled workers so more foreign scientists can work at American companies. "If you were to stop all immigration and H-1Bs, you would have a [scientist] shortage," said Merrilea Mayo, director of the government, university, industry roundtable at NAS.
The prospect of 600,000 new Chinese engineers every year has delivered a Sputnik-style judo chop to the tech and research body politic. The powerful dual arms of the industries have forced both Congress and the White House to take notice.
"America today faces a serious and intensifying challenge with regard to its future competitiveness and standard of living," former Lockheed Martin CEO Norman Augustine told Congress last fall. "Further, we appear to be on a losing path."
Views From The White House And Congress
The Bush administration takes a dim view of the assessment and White House science adviser John Marburger repeatedly has tried to counter criticisms that the White House has not adequately funded basic science research.
Congress now is weighing the issue, with key lawmakers like Virginia Republican Frank Wolf, who sits on the House Appropriations Committee, and New York Republican Sherwood Boehlert, chairman of the House Science Committee, exerting increasing pressure for more federal funding of research and development.
On the Senate side, John Ensign, R-Nev., introduced legislation in mid-December that would double funding for the National Science Foundation and push federal agencies to reserve up to 3 percent of their research budgets for high-risk/high-payoff projects. "One of the best ways to ensure a strong economic future in America is to invest now in tomorrow's technological innovations," he said in a statement.
If successful, a boost in federal R&D spending could deliver all the scientists industry and academia want because students have a tendency to follow the money. "Government is indirectly the producer of most science and engineering students," Mayo said.
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