Asia, New Zealand, Australia
     When the clock strikes midnight in New Zealand, Y2K experts around the world will be watching the first significant country to undergo the date change as a sort of global Y2K guinea pig. (Technically, Fiji, Tuvalu and other Pacific Island nations will beat New Zealand by a few hours.)
     Although New Zealand is generally thought to be prepared for the glitch, the nation is a good barometer for the developed world's Y2K preparedness. And McConnell says if things go amiss in New Zealand, the world's in for a long night. Bonnie Heald, spokeswoman for House Y2K watchdog Steve Horn, R-CA, said there is concern that New Zealand's Y2K compliance wasn't independently verified.
     But the real Y2K linchpins for Asia, and the world, are the Philippines and Indonesia. After a year of political turmoil, the State Department has predicted that Indonesia isn't fully ready to deal with Y2K. The United Kingdom's Foreign And Commonwealth office predicted the Philippines would probably have failures in some of its automated power plants. Still, McConnell stressed that he doesn't expect serious problems during the rollover. The more bedeviling glitches are likely to come in the weeks following Y2K in health care and government services.
     India and China had worried Y2K watchers in 1999, but both countries are reporting they'll be ready for the rollover. India has made big strides in its Y2K readiness in the last few months, and the U.S. State Department reports that most of India's key critical sectors are ready. But recent press reports indicate that Y2K could hurt India's small hospitals, local banks and minor power stations.
     China has been long reticent to share Y2K compliance information with other governments. Still, Chinese officials have said they're "basically" ready for the New Year and have tested 18 industries and sectors for compliance. But China is an enormous country, with more than 30 large provinces, and officials have acknowledged they can't check every place. The U.S. State Department has warned that there could be a risk in China's key sectors such as telecommunications, power, medical services and finance. (Chinese officials have decided to close the financial markets from noon on Dec. 31 to Jan. 2 to head off potential problems.)
     Other potential worries in Asia include countries such as Afghanistan and North Korea, where there's little known about their Y2K preparations. While most believe the nations aren't dependent on technology to begin with, there is little public information about these countries because they don't maintain diplomatic relations with the United States. Earlier in the year, the UN military command in South Korea suggested that Y2K experts from both Koreas get together to discuss Y2K problems, but North Korea nixed the idea.
     Australia has long been considered to have one of the highest levels of readiness in the region because the government was one of the first to take the problem seriously. The government has tested compliance in its key sectors and reported preparedness in every sector to the International Y2K Cooperation Center.

Eastern Europe
     Eastern Europe has caused the most hand wringing for Y2K watchers and U.S. lawmakers concerned with the region's nuclear plants and other key sectors. Fears of Y2K failures prompted the U.S. State Department to tell U.S. embassy workers and their families to leave Russia, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine.
     Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov has said he could "boldly declare" Russia ready for Y2K, but watchdogs and Western governments have worried about Eastern European nations' power grids, saying if one fails, their interconnectivity could trigger widespread problems. Despite Russia's public declaration that it's ready, the nation's potential for Y2K effects still causes concern among lawmakers, said Unice Lieberman, former spokeswoman for top Senate Y2K watchdog Christopher Dodd, D-CT.
     There's also concern about nuclear power plants in Russia and countries of the former Soviet Union, although these plants' safety-related aspects are believed ready. Further, Ukraine officials have assured the public that the infamous Chernobyl nuclear plant is safe. The International Y2K Cooperation Center recently released a report that saying that nuclear power plants would have a smooth transition into the New Year, but that computer glitches could deteriorate nuclear plants' safety in the weeks following the date change.
     Given the string of high-profile political struggles this year in Eastern Europe, it's no surprise Y2K fixes haven't ranked high on these countries' to-do lists. Lisa Pellegrin, International Y2K Cooperation Center spokeswoman, said some Eastern European nations, especially Russia, took a relaxed attitude about Y2K.
     "With the Russians, they were like, 'What's all the hullabaloo about?'," she said.

Europe
     Much of Europe is considered well-prepared for Y2K, with the United Kingdom, which is heavily dependent on automated systems, believed to be one of the world's most ready for the date change. There had been concern that Italy and Germany were behind on Y2K fixes, but Germany went on a last-minute spending spree to catch up. Germany's spending on Y2K fixes is estimated at $83.8 billion. Italy is still considered one of the least ready European countries and the U.S. State Department predicted Italy could face difficulties in telecommunications and water supply. Still, McConnell said Italy would probably undergo a smooth Y2K transition.

Middle East
     It appears many Middle Eastern nations are ready to handle Y2K, but there are still moderate risks. Israel, the West Bank and Gaza are generally complaint, although there could be a risk of glitches in the electric and telecommunications sectors. Saudi Arabia, which relies heavily on computer systems, is thought to be ready, but the U.S. State Department has cautioned that the country could experience short-term failures in telecommunications, electric power and health care.
     Although Iran is unlikely to experience serious Y2K problems, the country has nonetheless complained that its Y2K compliance efforts were stymied by U.S. trade sanctions against the country because they've been unable to get U.S. help to fix computer systems.
     In contrast, little is known about how countries such as Iraq and Libya will fare. Information is difficult to obtain from these nations because of their contentious relations with the United States.

Sub Saharan Africa
     Of all the regions of the world, Sub Saharan Africa is the least dependent on technology. This factor has helped save it from many of the Y2K challenges bedeviling the rest of the world. But this does not mean that the bug won't hit Africa, and many countries and international organizations outside Africa have donated equipment or lent money to help with Y2K fixes. A UN report found that the region doesn't have the technical expertise to determine Y2K readiness. While countries such as South Africa appear well prepared, little is known about other countries' readiness. For example, the U.S. State Department has said Ghana reports Y2K compliance in public utilities and telecommunications, but the nation's remediation had not been verified or completed.

South and Central America
     Despite limited financial resources and political upheaval in the region, Y2K failures here are expected to be moderate.
     Chile is considered one of the best-prepared countries in Latin America and Brazil is also reported to have tested and completed Y2K readiness in key sectors. Like many countries around the world, Columbia could face troubles in its government services. Press reports indicate the nation's Social Security Institute has not solved its Y2K problem. In El Salvador, the U.S. State Department has warned that although energy, air transportation, and telecommunications sectors report their computer systems will be Y2K compliant, health care providers have been slow to get ready. In addition, it's unclear whether the nation's banking sector is ready. The United Kingdom's Foreign And Commonwealth Office reports that Venezuela has been slow to make Y2K fixes and is trying to make up for lost time. Government preparedness is spotty and the public sector's is worse. Gas and communications sectors appear prepared and the electricity sector is making progress.

North America
     North America is probably the world's most technologically dependent region and thus has the most at stake during the date change. But Canada, the United States and Mexico are also among the best prepared nations, providing a relative Y2K snoozer compared to what the rest of the world faces. Still, minor inconveniences could plague the region, and McConnell warned that glitches in the private sector could cause major hassles and waste a lot of people's time.
     "Don't underestimate the ability of the mainframe to screw things up," he said.
- by Caroline Broder