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ADMINISTRATION: Investigating The Investigators
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Also Featured on NationalJournal.com |
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
  Topical Depression The flurry of polls released today paint a very blurry picture for WH Dems. On the one hand, HRC has been damaged (maybe irreparably) by her attacks on Obama. But Dem voters, unlike the hand-wringing party elite, are just as happy to have this primary campaign continue. Does this mean that HRC can follow Schoen's free advice and keep on the attack, knowing that it won't depress Dem enthusiasm for 11/08? -- In the WaPo poll, HRC's fav ratings dropped 13 pts. since 1/08. But, Obama's took a dip too (6 pts.) leaving his fav. rating just 5 pts higher than hers at 75%. --But in PA, Pollster.com's Blumenthal's exhaustive look into Q-poll cross-tabs finds that Obama's fav. ratings have slipped 9 pts. among non-college white men since 4/6. Is HRC's strategy responsible for this? --So, how will we know if the "bitter strategy" is paying off? Campaign 101 says going negative depresses turn-out. In PA, the HRC camp would like non-traditional voters - i.e. college educated whites and younger folks - to stay home. If they don't, doesn't this undercut her rationale for continuing this strategy into IN and NC?
 Michelle Obama, NBC/National Journal, 4/15 |
It's (Not) A GasMcEcon 101 gets mixed reviews, even from WSJ. And, is his free ride over? Indie group says it'll spend $40M angst him. (#1)
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LIKE SCHEDULING YOUR PROM ON SUPER BOWL SUNDAY? With tonight's PA debate held at the same time as the Radio & TV Correspondents' dinner, one wonders just how many formally-dressed reporters will be crammed in to the hotel bar to, ummm, watch TV. | |||||||
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The speech, "delivered on the deadline for filing taxes, afforded the clearest view to date of what McCainomics might look like. There was a dash of populism," as he "criticized executive pay and corporate wrongdoing. There was a strong supply-side bent," with McCain "focusing on cutting corporate taxes and making permanent the Bush tax cuts that he once opposed. And there was a decidedly less hawkish note on deficits," as he "called for spending cuts but did not mention balancing the federal budget" (Cooper, New York Times, 4/16). Among the highlights of McCain's plan: Lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25% (the biggest tax cut in the plan); elimination of the alternative minimum tax; doubling the personal exemption for dependents from $3,500 to $7,000; making wealthier Americans pay higher premiums for Medicare prescription drugs; and giving drivers a summer-long holiday from federal gas taxes (Gilbert, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 4/16). The response to McCain's speech was mixed, with most reviewers finding both pros and cons in the plan:
If We Took A Gas-Tax-Holiday, Took Some Time To Celebrate Economists and energy analysts said 4/15 that McCain's gas-tax-holiday "would have little impact on mitigating the rise in gasoline prices. In fact, it could lead to the opposite result." The federal gasoline tax represents a flat fee of 18.4 cents/gallon nationwide. With gasoline currently averaging $3.39/gallon, the tax represents a mere 5% of today's pump price. "While that's not trivial, consider that gasoline prices have more than doubled" since '04. "The problem is that lowering gasoline prices at the pump would encourage more consumption. So in the long run, it would push prices up" (Mouawad, "The Caucus," NYTimes.com, 4/15). Many of the other responses to McCain's speech focused on the effectiveness of a gas-tax-holiday:
So, That's A No? Dems, meanwhile, pounced on McCain's speech. FNC's Cameron: "Democrats nonetheless said what McCain is proposing amounts to little more than what they called the failed policies of the Bush administration. In the past, the senator has said that he could balance the budget in his first year as president. Now, he says it will take eight years which means he'd have to be reelected" ("Special Report," 4/15).
When I Think About You, I Out Of Touch Myself The Dem-aligned Progressive Media USA has launched its planned four-month, $40M ad campaign against McCain. For its newest spot, "Out of Touch," the group "spliced together soundbites of Bush and McCain commenting on the economy." Bush says at one point: "We're just in a rough patch." McCain then says: "And we are in a rough patch." And then the screen flashes to read: "232,000 American jobs lost in 2008 -- Bureau of Labor Statistics." The ad began running 4/15 on cable news in DC, and will rotate on CNN and MSNBC, a spokesperson for the org. said. The RNC, meanwhile, denounced the ad. RNC spokesperson Alex Conant: "Voters are sick of these sorts of political ads, which are funded by special-interest groups and distort the truth" (Holmes, "Washington Wire," WSJ.com, 4/15). That's What Friends Of The Earth Are For Nat'l environmental group Friends of the Earth Action "will run TV ads across the country and on the web asking McCain to stop trying to add billions of dollars of subsidies for the nuclear industry to the Lieberman-Warner global warming bill." According to the group, the bill "is already a trillion-dollar giveaway for corporate polluters." Friends of the Earth Action pres. Brent Blackwelder: "It is outrageous for Senator McCain to portray himself as tough on spending and as a friend of the environment, and then go out and push all this pork for corporate polluters. That's not straight talk" (release, 4/15). Back To School McCain was on MSNBC's "Hardball College Tour" on 4/15, appearing at Villanova Univ. Some highlights:
Blond Haired Kid Who's Not Steve Doocy Also during McCain's "Hardball College Tour" stop, a student raised a question about Clinton's weekend visit to an IN bar, where she took a shot of Crown Royal. The student: "I was wondering if you think that she's finally resorted to hitting the sauce just because of some unfavorable polling. And I was also wondering if you would care to join me for a shot after this?" McCain "laughed," and "hoots and hollers came from the audience." McCain: "I did not see the clip of it but I certainly heard about it, and whatever makes Senator Clinton happy is ... is certainly, uh, certainly ..." (AP, 4/15). It turns out that the student who asked the question was Peter Doocy, the son of "Fox & Friends" anchor Steve Doocy. For more, see today's MEDIA MONITOR. Banging It Like A Cheap Drum McCain sat down for an interview with Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Zito. Some excerpts:
He Drives A Dodge Stratus! Ex-MN GOP exec. dir./Pawlenty adviser Ben Golnik will take charge of the midwest/mountain region for the McCain camp, GOP sources said. Meanwhile, a look at the names of McCain's regional mgrs. suggests that one criticism of McCain mgr. Rick Davis "is no longer operative." Davis "did not pack this elite roundtable only with his allies. Only one" regional mgr. can reliably be considered a longtime Davis ally -- Doug Davenport, the regional mgr. for the mid-Atlantic. "Most of the rest are outsiders," like Gentry Collins, or McCain "lifers" like Jim Barnett, the mgr. for NH and New England; Craig Goldman, the mgr. for the southwest; and Buzz Jacobs, the mgr. for states like SC and FL. The regional mgrs. "will report directly to Davis, bypassing a headquarters-based political desk, and will be largely responsible for almost everything that happens in their region." Davis and the regional mgrs., along with the camp's media and strategy teams, "will make joint decisions about media purchasing," although the regional mgrs. "will have some flexibility" (Ambinder, TheAtlantic.com, 4/15). Holy Shirts And Pants McCain issued a 4/15 statement marking Pope Benedict XVI's arrival in the U.S. McCain: "His visits are historic in scope and remind us of the profound contributions to America's cultural values that he and the Church he leads have made. He is the most influential advocate for peace and faith in the lives of millions of Americans, and for millions more the Holy Father is a calming, spiritual presence to be welcomed and respected" (release, 4/15). Meanwhile, McCain is among the 200 guests whom the WH has invited to an East Room dinner tonight to honor the pope's visit. "The pope won't be there, but the guest list" also includes Educ. Sec. Margaret Spellings, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, CJ John Roberts, and Justices Antonin Scalia, Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito (Argetsinger/Roberts, Washington Post, 4/16). The Triumphant Return Of Joe Biden Joe Biden, in remarks prepared for a 4/15 speech at Georgetown Univ., said McCain would continue Bush's practice of pursuing the war in Iraq at the expense of other urgent global issues. Biden: "When it comes to Iraq, there is no daylight between John McCain and George W. Bush. They are joined at the hip. ... When it comes to Iraq, there will be no change with a McCain administration ... and so there is a real and profound choice for Americans in November" (AP, 4/15). Biden, on Arab sentiment regarding McCain's 100 years in Iraq comment: "The larger point was when we say to the Arab world that we would stay in Iraq for 100 years, even in peaceful circumstances, it feeds the assumption that we are there to control their oil and to have a permanent military base" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/15). McCain, on disagreements with Biden over the future of the Iraq war: "Why should I be surprised that Joe Biden -- not surprised that Joe Biden in the year 2008 would be disagreeing with me?" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/15). Of Course He Is Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) "is leaving open the possibility of giving a keynote address" on behalf of McCain at the GOP convo. McCain "has yet to ask Lieberman to speak, either in primetime or elsewhere," but if McCain thinks it will help make his case for the WH, Lieberman "would be willing to speak on his behalf." Lieberman: "If Sen. McCain, who I support so strongly, asked me to do it, if he thinks it will help him, I will" (Raju, The Hill, 4/16). Yeah, It Scared Me, Too The McCain camp used the 4/15 tax deadline "to make a pitch of his own." An email from McCain popped up in supporters' inboxes "with the daunting subject: 'Have you filed your taxes?'" The letter from McCain "reminded the readers of his tax plan and warned against the dangers" of his Dem opponents. McCain then wrote: "I cannot succeed in my efforts without your immediate financial support" (Holmes, "Washington Wire," WSJ.com, 4/15). I Think I Would Have Gone With Something From Barefoot Contessa Up until early 4/15 a.m., visitors to McCain's website could find seven of "Cindy's Recipes" -- among them, passion fruit mousse, Ahi tuna with Napa cabbage slaw, and farfalle pasta with turkey sausage, peas and mushrooms. The "only problem was, all three of them, listed as favorite 'family' recipes" of Cindy McCain's, "were taken verbatim from the Food Network." And a fourth recipe "bore a striking resemblance to a similar recipe" by Food Network's Rachael Ray. By mid-a.m., the McCain camp "had taken down all seven recipes" from the website "and was pointing a finger at an intern who, tasked several months ago" with contacting C. McCain's staff for favorite McCain recipes, "had prowled the Internet instead." McCain spokesperson Tucker Bounds: "The intern has been dealt with. ... We took away his zero pay." The story was first reported 4/14 p.m. by David Weiner on "The Huffington Post," after he was alerted by "avid cook"/atty Lauren Handel. Handel "was looking for a recipe for dinner on Sunday night and discovered as she was Googling ingredients that the Food Network and McCain Web sites popped up at the same time" (Bumiller, "The Caucus," NYTimes.com, 4/15). Appreciate You, Home State A week ago, GOP activists living in the same AZ state legislative district as McCain "rejected nearly all the names" his camp submitted as candidates to become state convo delegates. Six people on McCain's slate eventually became delegates, according to district GOP chair Rob Haney. Haney: "The people who know him like him the least. He is a media darling, so the general population doesn't know his record -- and conservatives do." The group of conservatives "has dogged McCain since he first ran for Congress" in '82, "objecting to his views on illegal immigration and campaign finance, among other issues." And while "the group has at times been an embarrassment, McCain remains strong" in AZ (Billeaud, AP, 4/16). A Sad Anniversary McCain issued a statement today on the anniversary of the Virginia Tech shooting. McCain: "On this day, Cindy and I join with all the students, faculty, friends and family of the Virginia Tech community in remembering those who were taken from this life too early" (release, 4/16). Isn't He Old Enough Already? Dick Morris writes, "this week, the old John McCain began to re-emerge. Articulating what tens of millions of Americans feel, he blamed the 'greedy' of Wall Street for causing the current economic problems." And "he said that, as always, it is the little guy who will pay the price when a recession hits, while the greedy who caused it make out, well, like bandits." "This is precisely the kind of populist rhetoric that John McCain needs to embrace to have a chance to win the general election" (The Hill, 4/16). Can't Find A Better Man Cato Institute senior fellow Michael Tanner writes, "overall," McCain has a "better" health care proposal than Obama. With Obama's "heavy reliance on government," his plan "leads to the same problems that bedevil universal healthcare systems all over the world: limited patient choices and rationed care. McCain's proposal is much more consumer-centered and taps into the best aspects of the free market" (The Hill, 4/16). Slow Yo Dole New York Observer's Kornacki writes, McCain "is far different" from ex-Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS). "Fair or not, many Americans see him as a fearless and principled maverick, something that explains his enduring popularity" with indies and even some Dems. "The idea of a reformer is inherently 'young,' no matter that reformer's numerical age" (4/15). When You Believe In Things That You Don't Understand, Then You Suffer McCain "has converted his staff to his famously superstitious ways." "Whenever anyone says something optimistic -- especially about this fall's general election -- a slew of staffers join him in knocking on wood." McCain press sec. Brooke Buchanan: "That's an ugly habit I've picked up myself. ... We were in Kansas City ... and someone mentioned winning in November, and three of us knocked on wood. We don't want to jinx anything." McCain "has dozens of superstitions and rituals, many stemming from his days as a Navy fighter pilot, a notoriously superstitious bunch." He "carries a lucky feather, a lucky compass and a lucky penny -- not to mention a lucky nickel and a lucky quarter" (Curl, Washington Times, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
Gibbs: "If you look at the recent polling, the race has stayed mostly the same over the past week despite a lot of coverage about those comments. ... There was a woman who told Barack Obama the other day in Pennsylvania, you misspoke but you didn't lie." MSNBC's Scarborough: "Now, Barack Obama quoted that woman, talking about I misspoke but I didn't lie. Is that a reference to Hillary Clinton lying?" Gibbs: "I don't believe so, no, she was talking about the fact that his statement about people being angry and bitter was true" (MSNBC, 4/16). Play It Again More on how reaction to the comments is unfolding: Newsweek's Alter: "Well, it's obviously very anecdotal but at the sense, it seems to be that it was a dumb remark, ill-conceived -- shouldn't have used that word bitter, should have said frustrated or angry, shouldn't have brought guns, but that too much is being made of it." Alter, on whether these bitter comments could haunt Obama in Nov. against McCain: "I think that's a possible problem, although a lot them will end up back in the Democratic column. It's the independence that Obama and McCain will be fighting over. And we don't really know what their reaction is, because many of them aren't going to vote in these Democratic primaries. So, if the Republicans can try to get this elitist theme going, and they don't really have anything else to go on because they're so out of touch on the issues, which favor Democrats, they've got to use it. They don't have anything else. And so, you will hear a lot about this over the next several months. It's not a dead issue" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/15). Oh, No You Didn't Top strategists for Al Gore and John Kerry "are questioning" Clinton's "assertion" that their candidates were viewed as too "elitist and out of touch" by voters. They even suggest "that it was Bill Clinton who did more to hurt the party while he was in the" WH. Ex-Gore/Kerry adviser Bob Shrum: "First of all, Gore won, but secondly, the greatest burden we had was the disillusion people had -- not with the record of the Clinton administration, but with their personal feelings toward the president. ... And the unspoken assumption here seems to be that she's the answer to this supposed problem, but neither she nor the president have lived in the real world for 25 years. They're surrounded by aides and staff, and they're moved from one mansion to another." Ex-Gore mgr. Donna Brazile said Clinton's criticism was "too simplistic." Brazile: "Part of the problem the party has faced over the past few cycles is that our coalition has been narrowly tailored [to] voters in certain states. Every election cycle, we were giving Republicans upwards of 25 states by focusing on the East and West coasts and some places in Middle America. That's not being out of touch; it's just that there was a significant but limited set of states we were competing in. That's changed now. There is a 50-state strategy" (Rushing, The Hill, 4/15). Laughing It Off Senator Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) offered this reaction to the "intramural tension" between Obama and Clinton: "It makes me bitter." The "sometimes droll" Reid got a laugh from reporters, but he went on to downplay "the possible party fallout and pointed out how interest in" the Dem primary is driving up Dem registration in NV. Reid: "This is all going to be over very soon. ... I think it's been healthy for our country, healthy for our party" (Hulse, "The Caucus," New York Times, 4/15). Still, the "battle" over whether Obama "belittled voters in small towns" appears to have "hardened the views of both candidates' supporters and stirred anxiety among many" Dems about the prospects for success in the fall. Obama advisers "concede" that his job "has been made that much more complicated by his remarks about bitterness among small-town voters;" although it remains unclear "what effect the episode will have in the long run" (Zeleny, New York Times, 4/16). And We're Not Going To Take It Salon's Madden reports from PA, "Shawn Erfman lives in a trailer park, listens to Rush Limbaugh and voted for George W. Bush -- twice. Over the weekend, he heard all about what Barack Obama had to say about 'bitter' Pennsylvanians like himself. And he's mad as hell." Erfman: "Everybody's bitter for one reason or another. So they're crucifying him because he spoke the truth? Cause he's not saying something that's going to suck up to people and kiss ass? Because, what, he slipped and accidentally spoke the truth, instead of kissing butt?" White working-class voters "are, without a doubt, the key to winning" the 4/22 PA primary. If Clinton "holds on to a big share of the blue-collar" Dem vote "she'll win" (4/16). Her 15 Minutes Blogger Mayhill Fowler, who broke the "bitter" comments story on the Huffington Post, has torn "the curtain from the front window of a longtime political refuge -- the high-end fundraiser -- and the ensuing tumult from her story" show how "coverage of campaigns continues to be rewritten in the digital age." Huffington Post editor Marc Cooper: "This effect of this goes beyond what Mayhill did." The Obama camp "did not say the event was off the record," so Fowler didn't "violate any ethical agreement." Media Bloggers Association President Robert Cox: "When there are no rules of engagement defined, then everything is on the record" (Garofoli, San Francisco Chronicle, 4/16). In an with the New York Times' Seelye, Fowler said "that she was initially reluctant to write about" what Obama had said because she "supports him." Fowler also "said the Obama campaign had never objected before to her having written about fund-raisers." Fowler: "We had a fundamental misunderstanding of my priorities. Mine were as a reporter, not as a supporter. They thought I would put the role of supporter first" (4/14). The Conventional Wisdom Here's the evolving take of newspaper columnists on the Obama "bitterness" controversy.
More Conventional Wisdom From TV, this time: Mitt Romney: "I heard Senator McCain on this topic today, and he said that he couldn't tell whether Barack Obama would be an elitist or not, but he said what he said was an elitist statement. And that, I think, is absolutely accurate. He showed a disdain for people who have values that are different than his own. And that's something which I think will ring true in peoples' ears that have been watching this race. I'm frankly glad you're seeing the Democrats have a good, long primary so that we get a chance to know Barack Obama better. We've known Hillary Clinton for some time, but Barack Obama's been kind of an unknown commodity, and now we're getting a better sense of who the man is" ("Election Center," CNN, 4/15). More Romney: "He's doing his best to spin it as something else ... but the truth is what he said is pretty plain on its face. ... I know Barack Obama shows great concern that Hillary is being critical of him, but you know, it ain't nothing compared to what he's going to receive from John McCain and from others who care about our country and the direction of the country" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 4/15). Philadelphia Daily News' Colgan: "I think, ironically, 'bittergate' might end up helping Obama in terms of it's really about expectations and perception. ... A lot of these polls coming out right now, despite her pummeling him, despite the negative ad out, despite the media saying that this was sort of a death knell to him ... it really hasn't resonated or made an impact at all. So I think if he does lose only by a small margin, which I think will happen, he could almost spin it as a win" ("LKL," CNN, 4/15). Newsweek's Alter, on the Clinton camp's expectation that the bitter comment would help in PA: "I think more likely, what's going to happen is that if Obama loses by six or seven points in Pennsylvania ... is, before, it would have been seen as a pretty decent victory for Hillary Clinton, kind of like Ohio. Now, it will be, oh, we only lost by six or seven points? We thought he was going to get blown out after that incident. So, in some ways, the expectations game maybe shifting a little bit in his favor" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/15). Obama supporter/Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA): "I don't think voters in Pennsylvania are going to hold one or two sentences or even a paragraph against Senator Obama. I think they'll look at the totality of his record" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 4/15). Ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich (R): "Here's the real hypocrisy behind Barack Obama's statement. He goes to Pittsburgh yesterday. And he gives a speech on the economy, which is an attack on international trade that fits exactly one of the fears he described as irrational, which is fear of international trade. If you go back and read what he said in San Francisco, he, himself, personified yesterday the very trade bashing, unionism that he implied was part of the irrationality when he was in San Francisco" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 4/15). The Homefront While Obama "hasn't served" at the IL Capitol since '04, GOPers there "chose to turn their attention" to his "bitter" remarks 4/15. State Rep. Ron Stephens (R) "took to the microphone on the House floor to offer a different view of his rural constituents." State Rep. Monique Davis (D) "then came to Obama's defense." Davis: "Barack Obama was doing what many of us do as we campaign, and that's speaking from the heart" (Shields, Arlington Heights Daily Herald , 4/16). A Laboring Effort An attempt to organize 8K nurses at nine Catholic Healthcare Partners hospitals in OH "is pitting" the Service Employees International Union against California Nurses Association. Recently, "a scuffle broke out between members of the SEIU and participants in a labor solidarity conference in Detroit" at which the exec. dir. of the California Nurses Association "was scheduled to speak." The confrontation "underscores divisions within the labor movement just as unions are trying to coordinate efforts to help elect" a Dem to the WH. Labor expert Kate Bronfenbrenner "said such disputes are hurting unions' ability to attract young people. Bronfenbrenner: "It could have huge repercussions" (Maher, Wall Street Journal, 4/16). They've Lost McCormick Speaking to reporters after a city council meeting 4/15, Williamson, WV, Mayor Darrin McCormick told reporters he "felt" that Obama's San Francisco remarks "were demeaning to all small town residents." McCormick: "This is just my opinion, but I feel like all Americans will feel the same way" (Christian, Williamson Daily News, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
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Uncommitted Rep. Baron Hill (IN) said "the strongest reaction has come from members of the press." Hill: "Rank-and-file people aren't that hyped up about it. ... People say, 'What's the big deal? Where's the beef?'" Uncommitted Rep. Tim Holden (PA), "representing a rural district," said Obama's comments "were unfortunate but somewhat understandable given the long and intense scrutiny of presidential candidates." Holden "disagreed" with Obama, but "said that there has been little reaction in his district." Uncommitted Rep. Brad Miller, "representing a rural [NC] district," has "chose not to criticize Obama's comments and said he has not heard any complaints" from his constituents. Pro-Obama Sen. Jay Rockefeller (WV) "brandished a new Quinnipiac poll conducted over the weekend" in PA. "It showed that Obama had lost no ground to Clinton two days after his comments became public." "The muted responses raise questions over whether Clinton's attacks will prove effective." But "despite the tepid reaction of these superdelegates," the Clinton camp said "it would strive to keep the issue alive." Clinton spokesperson Howard Wolfson: "[W]e believe this is an important campaign issue." John McCain "has joined Clinton's attack." McCain spokesperson Steve Schmidt: "The reality is this is an important and defining moment in the race" (Bolton/Youngman, The Hill, 4/15). Undecided Rep. Mike Doyle (D-PA) said 4/14 "that he was not particularly troubled by Obama's comments." Doyle: "I don't disagree with a lot of what he said. My dad was a mill worker. My grandfather was a steel mill worker, and when the steel industry collapsed, nobody's family was hurt more than mine. It's not inaccurate to say a lot of politicians have come through these towns, made a lot of promises and failed to deliver. I thought he was spot-on when he said how people feel." "He added that Obama's unexpected endorsement yesterday by Pittsburgh Steelers owner Dan Rooney 'carries a hell of a lot more weight' than the blowup over his comments about small-town residents" (Murray/Bacon, Washington Post, 4/15). Ghosts Of Dem-Mess Past "It's emerging as the June solution," a way "to preclude a debilitating donnybrook that could rage all the way to the convo. The idea "is for all superdelegates to make their presidential preferences known shortly after the final primaries," on 6/3. Two ex-Dem pres. nominees "are now joining that call." George McGovern and Mike Dukakis "tell me they think superdelegates should declare their allegiances soon after the primary season ends." Pro-Clinton McGovern: "We don't want an acrimonious battle all the way to the convention and maybe out onto the convention floor. We had that in 1972, when I was nominated, and it was very damaging." Uncommitted Dukakis: ""If the thing comes to a conclusion in June, the nominee will have plenty of time to do some planning and to take some time picking a running mate" (Lehigh, Boston Globe, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
And today, Clinton hit John McCain in a speech to construction trade unionists, "pointing to his economic speech yesterday to show he did not understand the economy and was not prepared to lead." Clinton: "I have a great deal of respect for Sen. McCain, but yesterday he made it clear that when it comes to the economy, he looks at the hole that Pres. Bush has dug us into and says 'Why not more? Lets go deeper. You know, when i was a little girl, by brothers and their friends were digging a hole in our backyard and I remember my mother asking 'What are you digging for?' And they said 'We're digging a hole to China. Well, little did I believe all these years later, that we would have a Republican Party and a president and a Republican nominee who were literally digging us a hole to China" (Jones, National Journal/NBC, 4/16). 81 Small Town Mayors Send Their Regards In what Clinton's camp billed as a "major endorsement" announcement, 100 PA Dem mayors "collectively endorsed" Clinton in a 4/15 Harrisburg rally. Most of the mayors "had gone public with their choice weeks ago. But the rally served the dual purpose of generating news coverage across the state" and giving some of the elected leaders of PA's "smaller cities and towns another chance to pounce" on Obama "as not understanding their constituents" (Thompson, Patriot-News, 4/16). Harrisburg Mayor Stephen Reed, who led the group, said Obama's comments "were divisive, condescending and inaccurate" (Mauriello, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 4/16). Meanwhile, turnout at the "100 Mayors for Hillary" rally was a little under 20%, as just 19 mayors actually "showed up" for the event. Clinton spokesperson Kathleen Strand "said rally organizers never expected all 100 mayors to attend" and that some were participating in Clinton events in their home cities. An Obama spokesperson said participation in the rally is "about the same percentage of voters who actually care about this story" (AP, 4/16). In Between Arby's Ads The American Leadership Project is planning to hit the airwaves in several PA TV markets today, with an initial $250K ad buy praising Clinton's stances on health care. Although the group has been "actively soliciting individual donors, the money for the commercials comes mostly from two unions that have endorsed" Clinton, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and the Machinists Union (Luo, "The Caucus," 4/16). Donations Make Various Things Possible
Frank-ly, We No Longer Give a Damn Clinton supporter/Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) said "the 'sooner' the lagging candidate bows out, the better." Frank said the Dem who trails on 6/3 should quit the race, adding that the trailing candidate should drop out "probably sooner" than that (Montipoli, "Horserace," 4/15). Clinton spokesperson Blake Zeff: "We respect Rep. Frank and are proud to have his support, but considering record turnout and gains in Democratic registration in the upcoming states, it's clear that many voters are excited for this process to continue" (McAuliff, New York Daily News, 4/15). Bruce Springsteen Tracks Still Playing Bill Clinton made his second trip to Lehigh Valley 4/15 "and appealed to the important role its voters will play." Clinton: "Pennsylvania can lift her up and give her the nomination and make her president. And for our sake and our children's sake, I hope you will." In a 50-minute speech," Clinton "systematically listed the reasons he felt his wife would be the best choice, including her plans for the economy, alternative energy, improved college loans, universal health care and ending the war in Iraq" (McEvoy, Easton Express-Times, 4/16). At "various points in his nearly hourlong appearance," Clinton "cautioned the hundreds gathered not to vote on history." Despite news coverage about the historic nature of this campaign with Dems "about to nominate either the first woman or first African-American," Clinton said: "The history doesn't amount to a hill of beans. All that matters is the future. Who will make the best future for you? (Helman, Boston Globe, 4/16). Campaigning in Indiana, PA, today B. Clinton told a crowd here that small towns are "the backbone of this country" and the "heart of her campaign." Bruce Springsteen's "Promise Land" was playing before he took stage at the event (Memoli, National Journal/NBC, 4/16). You Know You Can E-File, Right? The Clinton campaign called on Obama to release his tax returns from his years as an IL state senator. In a 4/15 release, the Clinton camp notes: "Obama has refused to release his tax returns for 1997, 1998 and 1999, even though he was in public life as a state senator during those years. During this period of time, Sen. Obama was accepting contributions from special interest lobbyists, PACs and even directly from corporations... When it comes to transparency, the only thing transparent about Senator Obama is his claim to be transparent" (4/15). The Goatee Should Have Been The Tip Off FNC's Garrett caught up with Kurt Freimuth, a PAan who appeared with his wife in Clinton's recent ad on Obama's "bitter comments." Freimuth, on why he and his wife spoke out: "He boiled down my faith and my wife's faith to our frustrations and bitterness. And our faith has nothing to do with bitterness. It has to do with everything about hope and our belief system, and that's what made us angry." Garrett: "Freimuth said the Clinton campaign provided no script and that the ad was shot Saturday in Bethlehem, the day after Obama's comments first surfaced. The Freimuths are long-standing Clinton supporters who worry about Obama's remarks haunting him if he becomes the nominee." Freimuth: "If it would have been a comment simply about economics or something like that, it would have been different. But I felt that he went directly after my belief system and my God in his comments, and I feel uncomfortable with that" ("Special Report," 4/15). Meanwhile, Allentown Morning Call's Drobnyk reports, at least one of Clinton's "supporters featured in the spot hammering Obama for his small town comments isn't registered to vote" in PA. Clyde Thomas, who sports a goatee in the ad and says, "the good people of Pennsylvania deserve a lot better than what Barack Obama said," is actually registered in NJ ("Pennsylvania Ave," 4/15). Just What The World Needs: More Ed Rendell Washington Post's Copeland is the latest to profile "frenetic" Clinton supporter/ PA Gov. Ed Rendell (4/16). Other profiles here and here. Does Judicial Watch Ever Take A Day Off? Judicial Watch has filed a complaint with the FEC over Elton John's 4/9 concert to raise money for Clinton, noting John, "a foreign national, cannot under federal law make any contribution to a federal, state or local election campaign." The group, in a letter from Judicial Watch pres. Tom Fitton, described John's appearance at the fundraiser as an "in-kind contribution from a foreign national" ("The Caucus," 4/15). Federal law allows foreigners to volunteer for campaigns, but Fitton said, "This isn't Elton John showing up to stuff envelopes" (Wereschagin, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 4/16). A Flair For The Penn In a Washington Post op-ed, pollster/ex-B. Clinton aide Doug Schoen writes, "Hillary Clinton took an important step" 4/14 toward winning the Dem nomination by launching an ad targeting Obama's "recent comments about working-class voters clinging to 'guns or religion.'" The ad is "a marked change from her recent determination to use a positive message until the Democratic convention, but for Clinton to capture the nomination she needs to completely abandon her positive campaign and continue to hammer away at Obama." Although voters "and the media look favorably upon a positive campaign message, and Clinton is acutely conscious that too much negativity and too many personal attacks will hurt her party in November, a positive message is simply not enough to alter the race at this point. It is too late for Clinton to make another mistake" (4/16) Speaking Of Schoen Dick Morris writes the Clintons have a "carefully choreographed pas-de-deux in which they take opposite sides of an issue, depending on Hillary's political needs of the moment." Bill Clinton "was the father of global free trade, even if good-cop Hillary chooses, after a decade and a half of silence, to repudiate that legacy" (New York Post, 4/16). Don't Bill Richardson Her! Despite reports that some NY Dems are "pitching the Executive Mansion as a kind of consolation prize" for Clinton, should she fail to win the WH, the idea "is flatly rejected" by her aides and closest supporters. Clinton spokesperson/strategist Howard Wolfson: "This whole line of inquiry is ridiculous. There are no circumstances under which Senator Clinton will run for governor" (Confessore, New York Times, 4/16). What Do You Think, Karl Rove? Karl Rove, on Clinton supporter/BET founder Bob Johnson saying that Geraldine Ferraro's comments about Obama were right: "I'm not certain how much impact it has on the race. Bob Johnson -- I know him. I respect him. ... The question he's groping with I think is the right one. ... I think he may be right that there's an advantage, a tactical advantage." More Rove: "But I think there are actually four or five other things that come into play here that we ought to look at and step back and take into consideration as an answer to the question that Bob Johnson raises. First, ... there's always been a doubt inside the Democratic Party about Hillary Clinton's candidacy ... and as a result, have been looking for an option. ... The media has helped. They've given him very positive and glowing coverage. ... Also, it's interesting, primaries are more about personality, not about issues. These two have agreed on the issues a lot. So the fact is, he's got a good, charming, wonderful, warm personality that has shown through a heck of a lot better than hers has. And finally, she's run an appallingly bad campaign on all kinds of fronts, in all kinds of ways" ("On the Record," FNC, 4/15). (Back to Contents)
ANNCR: "Across Pennsylvania, families are struggling. What's Hillary Clinton's answer? The same old politics. Misleading negative ads. The truth? It's Barack Obama who's taken on the oil companies, worked to strip away their tax breaks as they run up record profits, and demanded higher gas mileage standards. And Obama's the only candidate who doesn't take a dime from oil company PACs or lobbyists. And that's change we can believe in." OBAMA: "I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message" (release, 4/16).Obama's camp launched another new ad in PA 4/15, responding to Clinton's earlier "attack" ad. Full script, "Represent": CLINTON (tape): "I know that many of you, like me ... were disappointed by recent remarks that he made." (jeers) ANNCR: "There's a reason people are rejecting Hillary Clinton's attacks. Because the same old Washington politics won't lower the price of gas or help our struggling economy. Barack Obama will represent all Americans. He offers a new approach." OBAMA: "When we get past the politics of division and distraction and we start actually focusing on what we have in common, there's nothing we can't accomplish. I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message" (release, 4/15).Clinton comm. dir. Howard Wolfson, on Obamas' ad: "I think, unfortunately, it was Senator Obama who was practicing a little bit of the politics of division by going to a fundraiser in San Francisco when making some rather uninsulting remarks about people in Pennsylvania. ... The Obama campaign has done everything it can to recast what he said to avoid really getting into any detailed explanation of what he said. But the fact is that what he said was offensive to many, many people" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 4/16). Obama "continues to vastly outspend" Clinton on PA TV ads, "an imbalance that is allowing him to pursue voters on speciality channels such as ESPN and MTV." In "cable spots pre-ordered for the final week of campaigning," Obama has reserved $465K in ads, to Clinton's $91K (Mosk, "The Trail," WashingtonPost.com, 4/15). Meanwhile, Washington Times' Bellantoni and Dinan write, Obama "broke his vow against negative campaigning" this week with his Web ad "attacking" Clinton's ties to lobbyists. Wolfson "said he had no response." Wolfson: "If it's something that they want to put their considerable resources behind by putting on television, we'll respond to it" (4/16). Where's Andre? With Obama (And Tim Gunn At The Red Lobster) Rep. Andre Carson (D-IN) endorsed Obama this a.m., saying Obama "is a fighter for working families, and part of a new generation of leadership that will bring needed change for our country" (release, 4/16). Carson is the first IN rep to endorse (Indianapolis Star, 4/16). Imagine That The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorsed Obama, writing, "For us it is the candidates' vision and character that loom as the decisive factors in this race. ... One candidate is of the past and one of the future." Obama "is every bit as prepared to answer the ring of the 3 a.m. phone as Sen. Clinton. ... When the occasion demands it, he can marshal eloquence in the service of making challenging arguments ... Nor is he any sort of elitist. As he said yesterday in effectively refuting this ridiculous charge in a meeting with Post-Gazette editors, 'my life's work has been to get everybody a fair shake.'" Obama "has captured much of the nation's imagination for a reason. He offers real change, a vision of an America that can move past not only racial tensions but also the political partisanship that has so bedeviled it" (4/16). And We Don't Even Have To Give Away Bumper Stickers Obama's camp sent out a fundraising email 4/15 setting a goal of 1.5M donors by 5/6, saying, "there's noting 'elitist' about" more than a million people contributing to Obama's bid (Hotline sources, 4/15). Also 4/15, Obama "referenced" his "bitterness" remarks at the end of his speech to the Building and Construction Trades Dept. in DC, "departing from his prepared text in doing so." Obama: "If you've been filling up your gas tank, you're angry. You've got to feel some frustration. You've got to feel some anger when you get the sense that the American way of life for so many people is slipping away." More: "If anyone denies that people are frustrated and angry and yes, sometimes bitter, then they are out of touch." But, Obama said, that's "not a reason to give up hope" (Oliphant/Parsons, Chicago Tribune, 4/16). A Thorough Vet-ing Asked at a town hall meeting with veterans 4/15 in Washington, PA, if Clinton's "attacks" about elitism and bitterness had crossed a racial line, Obama said, "I don't think there are racial overtones to the attacks going on right now. I think it's politics. This is what we do politically when we start getting behind in races and we start going on the attack." Obama also "firmly rejected the elitist label by listing some of his humble roots," including being raised by a single mother, relying on food stamps and only recently paying off his student loans. Obama "called the uproar over his comments" evidence that it's "political silly season." Obama: "What we really need to do right now is focus on solving problems" (Sherman, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 4/15). PA Auditor General Jack Wagner, a Vietnam War vet who earned the Purple Heart, introduced Obama, and endorsed him. Wagner said Obama "has proven to us that he has the leadership to lead our country, not just out of this war, but to make sure veterans" are properly served (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 4/15). "About 300 people, many of them veterans, packed the invitation-only event." Obama "spoke for 10 minutes and took questions for nearly an hour." He received "loud applause" when he touted a "bipartisan effort" to improve veterans' services (Brown, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 4/15). Feels Like A Flag Pin Kinda Day In an interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette ed board 4/15, Obama said of his bitterness remarks, "What I do regret is that in one quick statement that wasn't phrased properly I detracted from what I think has to be a genuine effort on the part of Democrats to speak to constituencies we haven't always reached out to." Obama said Dems "spent a lot of time on issues that I think pushed away a lot of potential voters. We spent a lot of time on identity politics; we spent a lot of time talking about rights but not responsibility. ... Part of our job in this election is to get past some of those arguments we had in the '60s." Obama also said Dems have "lost touch with the economic realities of a lot of people. We started being financed by the same lobbyists and the same special interests as" the GOPers, "and as a consequence, you started seeing policies that ... from the perspective of a lot of working Americans, didn't seem all that different." During the interview, Obama "wore an American flag pin in his lapel, something that he has not made a habit of recently." Obama "explained that he had received the pin just hours earlier from a disabled Vietnam-era veteran" at the town hall. Obama: "The notion that somehow I was refusing to wear flag pins was just not accurate. ... I do think that after 9/11 I saw a lot of people who were wearing flag pins but voting in ways that I thought didn't always speak to what I think our patriotism requires." Obama, on wearing the pin: "This wasn't some kind of statement I was making. A disabled veteran who has fought for his country asks you to wear one, that's something I'm happy to do. It's the same reason I wear this bracelet that a mother gave me after a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Her 20-year old was killed in a roadside bombing so I haven't taken it off since" (O'Toole, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 4/16). Reach Out And Touch Me Michelle Obama "answered the question of 'elitism'" 4/15 in PA, "receiving a standing ovation at Haverford College by saying that she was the product of a working class family and public education." M. Obama: "There's a lot of people talking about elitism and all of that. But let me tell you who me and Barack are, so you are not confused. Yeah, I went to Princeton and Harvard, but the lens through which I see the world is the lens that I grew up with. I am the product of a working-class upbringing. ... I want people to know when they look at me, to be clear that they see what an investment in public education can look like." More M. Obama: "If I'm telling you something that you don't know, let me know. Maybe things are better, and I'm just missing the boat and I'm out of touch" (Berger, NBC/National Journal, 4/15). M. Obama also spoke to a "capacity crowd" (Joyce, York Daily Record, 4/16) of about 900 in York, where audience members were "moved" and called her "awe-inspiring" (Lindquist, York Dispatch, 4/15). Humor Me, Stephen M. Obama also appeared on "Colbert Report" 4/15, and spoke with Stephen Colbert about her husband's candidacy: M. Obama, asked how many silver spoons her family had growing up on Chicago's South Side: "We had four spoons. Then my father got a raise at the plant, and we had five spoons." On the experience of campaigning with her husband: "You know, this has been a privilege. I have to say, being able to travel around the country meeting people. ... Coming on ['Colbert Report'] is the highlight. ... Barack and I tend to look at the positive. We don't look at what could go wrong, what the problems are, because there is so much that Barack can do for this country. So I'm willing to make the sacrifices to get him in office." On why she thinks women support Obama: "There are many women like myself who are independent, strong, focused, who care about family values who know that Barack is special, that he has something unique to offer the country and that his perspective is really going to change the lives of working women. He understands because he's living with me" (Comedy Central, 4/15). Politico's Vogel, on M. Obama's appearance: "Clearly, she's joking around here, but it's also a very good answer, in that it plays into the Obama campaign's approach, not only to this controversy but all the controversy that he's seen in the course of the campaign this year. From his associations with his controversial pastor, Reverend Wright, [to] his lifting lines from a political ally' speech. ... [Obama] says the criticism about these things is really just politics as usual and it's laughable and he is the one to sort of take us beyond that. Michelle Obama's response to Stephen Colbert, sure it's funny, but it's also effective in that it takes the same line" ("American Morning," CNN, 4/16). Debate Prep: More Fun With Rabbis Obama "will meet with about 50 American Jewish leaders" in Philly this a.m., including "rabbis, professional leaders and lay leaders" (Berger, NBC/National Journal, 4/15). Obama heads to NC 4/17 (release, 4/16). Plouffe Hits Kokomo; Plus A PA Secret Weapon Today in primary state press chatter:
Non-Violent Resistance Obama issued a statement 4/16 marking the Virginia Tech anniversary, saying, "One year later, it's also time to reflect on how violence -- whether on campuses like Virginia Tech and Northern Illinois University or on the streets of Chicago and cities across this nation -- can be prevented. Clearly, our state and federal governments have to strengthen some laws and do a better job enforcing others. But we all have a responsibility to do what we can in our own lives and communities to end this kind of senseless violence" (release, 4/16). Does Gumbel Have Game? Obama appeared on HBO's "Real Sports" 4/15, and allowed the show to videotape him playing a game of pickup basketball. See today's Play of the Day for highlights from the game. Meanwhile, "at the last minute," ESPN execs "killed a podcast" with Obama slated for 4/11 with host Bill Simmons. A spokesperson for Obama said he's still "happy to appear on ESPN at any time" (New York Daily News, 4/16). What Have I Done Wrong Today, National Media?
Can't Get Much More Small Town Cred Than That Bruce Springsteen has endorsed Obama, writing on his website, "Senator Obama, in my view, is head and shoulders above the rest. ... He speaks to the America I've envisioned in my music for the past 35 years" (release, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
WH '08 Primary Election Matchup Have Clinton/Obama Focused More
Now 3/2 2/1 On Real Issues Or Arguing About
B. Obama 51% 50% 43% Things Which Aren't Important?
H. Clinton 41 43 47 Now 2/1
Other 1 1 2 Things not important 49% 57%
Undec 5 2 5 Real issues 45 39
If Obama Gets The Dem Nod, How If Clinton Gets The Dem Nod, How
Likely Are You To Vote For Him? Likely Are You To Vote For Her?
(Clinton supporters) (Obama supporters)
Definitely will 29% Definitely will 29%
Probably will 31 Probably will 32
Probably won't 17 Probably won't 18
Definitely won't 19 Definitely won't 20
Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Which Candidate ___?
Clinton Obama Both Neither
Has better experience to be POTUS 67% 24% 3% 5%
Is the stronger leader 49 44 3 1
Better understands your problems 41 46 6 4
Would do more to change Washington 35 56 3 3
Has the better chance of winning in Nov. 31 62 1 2
Is more honest/trustworthy 30 53 8 4
Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, How Would You Describe The Tone Of
Who Do You Trust More To Handle The Dem Campaign So Far? Now 2/1
___? Cli Oba Bth Nth Mostly positive 53% 64%
Int'l trade 47 43 2 2 Mostly negative 41 27
The war in Iraq 46 46 4 2
The economy 45 48 4 2 Should SuperDels Support The
Health care 51% 41% 3 2 Candidate Who Won The Most Dels,
Terrorism 47 42 5 3 Won The Most Votes Or They Think
Is The Best?
Is The Length Of The Dem Contest Overall vote 46%
Good/Bad For The Dems? They think is best 37
Good 17% Overall Dels 13
Bad 32
No diff. 50 How Concerned Are You The GOP Will
Use Rev. Wright's Comments Against
If Clinton Loses PA, Should She Obama Effectively In The Fall?
___? Very 15%
Stay in race 55% Somewhat 32
Drop out 43 Not too 21
Not at all 30
(Back to Contents)
WH '08 Primary Election Matchup
Now 4/13 4/12 4/11 4/10 4/9 4/8 4/7 4/6 4/5 4/4 4/3 4/2 4/1
B. Obama 51% 50% 50% 49% 51% 50% 51% 51% 52% 49% 49% 49% 49% 49%
H. Clinton 40 40 41 42 42 42 41 43 43 46 44 44 46 46
Other 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
Undec 8 9 8 8 6 7 6 5 4 5 6 6 5 5
(Back to Contents)
WH '08 Primary Election Matchup
Now Wom Wht 3/14 2/16
B. Obama 51% 48% 46% 47% 52%
H. Clinton 38 42 41 44 38
(Back to Contents)
Clinton TX chair Garry Mauro: "We support any individual who files a challenge to protect the integrity of the caucus process. So if a person files a challenge because the process for determining the delegate apportionment was flawed or because the rules weren't followed at a particular county convention, we support the right to do so." The Obama camp declined to comment on the caucus challenges (Shannon, AP, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
WH '08 Primary Election Matchup
All Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Non-Wht 18-44 45+
H. Clinton 46% 47% 40% 40% 50% 52% 28% 37% 52%
B. Obama 41 41 53 50 36 36 57 48 38
Other 1 -- -- 1 -- -- 1 -- 1
Undec 12 12 7 9 14 12 14 15 9
Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Direction Of U.S.
Who Has A Better Chance Of Beating All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
McCain? All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht Right dir. 7% 22% 12% 17% 13%
B. Obama 33% 42% 27% 30% 42% Wrong dir. 85 69 77 74 72
H. Clinton 21 16 25 23 16
Equal 37 33 40 37 37 Will The Dem Primary Battle
Neither 4 5 2 4 2 Ultimately Help/Hurt The Dem Nom.
Undec 5 4 6 6 3 In Nov.? All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
Help 24% 27% 23% 21% 37%
Should SuperDels Vote For The Hurt 22 28 19 23 19
Candidate They Like Or The One Who No effect 41 36 44 42 36
Won The Popular Vote In Their
State? All Men Wom Does Obama's Race Make Him More/
Vote as they like 37% 37% 38% Less Electable In Nov.?
Vote like their state 56 56 55 All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
More 11% 15% 9% 8% 21%
If The Dem You Support Does Not Less 25 24 25 25 25
Get The Nod, Who Will You Support Not imprt. 59 54 62 62 50
In Nov.? All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
Dem Nom. 62% 54% 66% 62% 62% Does Clinton's Gender Make Her
J. McCain 14 19 11 17 4 More/Less Electable In Nov.?
Other 7 8 7 5 13 All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
Won't vote 6 4 7 5 8 More 15% 19% 12% 13% 21%
Undec 11 15 9 11 13 Less 28 23 32 28 30
Not imprt. 53 53 53 56 43
Does B. Clinton's Participation In
HRC's Campaign Make You More/Less Does Knowing The Clintons Earned
Likely To Vote For Her? $109M Since They Left The WH
All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht Change Your Opinion Of HRC As A
More 31% 34% 29% 33% 23% Candidate Who Understands The Needs
Less 14 18 13 15 13 Of Avg. Americans? All Men Wom
No effect 53 44 57 51 58 Changed/for better 8% 8% 8%
Changed/for worse 9 16 6
Has Obama's Handling Of The Rev. No change 80 72 84
Wright Controversy Made You Think
More/Less Highly Of Him? If Obama Gets The Dem Nod, Will His
All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht Association With Rev. Wright Be A
More 24% 24% 24% 25% 20% Problem? All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
Less 15 17 13 17 8 Yes 46% 53% 41% 48% 35%
No effect 58 53 61 56 65 No 47 39 51 45 53
Harrisburg Teeter A Philadelphia Daily News/WGAL-TV/Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/WTAE-TV/WPVI-TV/Times-Shamrock Newspapers poll; conducted 4/8-13 by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College; surveyed 547 Dem RVs; margin of error +/- 4%. Subsample of 367 LVs; margin of error +/- 5% (release, 4/16).
WH '08 Primary Election Matchup 3/08 2/08
All LVs Men Wom Wht Non-Wht 18-34 35-54 55+ All LVs All
H. Clinton 45% 46% 40% 48% 48% 22% 36% 47% 45% 50% 51% 44%
B. Obama 35 40 38 33 32 59 55 34 32 28 35 32
Other 2 -- 3 2 3 -- -- 3 3 3 1 4
Undec 18 14 20 16 18 19 9 16 20 19 13 20
WH '08 General Election Matchups
(Clinton supporters) Now 3/08 (Obama supporters) Now 3/08
B. Obama 48% 53% H. Clinton 58% 60%
J. McCain 21 19 J. McCain 21 20
Other 3 5 Other 6 3
Won't vote 13 13 Won't vote 6 3
Undec 15 10 Undec 9 14
Fav/Unfav Now 3/08 2/08 1/08 8/07 6/07 2/07
H. Clinton 58%/22% 65%/18% 62%/18% 63%/19% 62%/21% 56%/20% 54%/21%
B. Obama 53 /21 47 /25 57 /16 51 /19 45 /15 43 /17 40 / 8
What Is The Main Reason You Support Your WH '08 Candidate?
Now 3/08 2/08 1/08
Cli Oba Cli Oba Cli Oba Cli Oba
Prefer his/her stands on issues 63% 55% 59% 64% 67% 52% 60% 55%
Like him/her as a person 12 21 16 17 9 19 11 16
Dislike the other candidate(s) 8 11 6 10 5 12 7 9
Other 18 13 18 7 19 16 23 18
If Clinton Gets The Nod, Would You If Obama Gets The Nod, Would You
Like To See Her Choose Obama As Like To See Him Choose Clinton As
Her VP? (Clinton supporters) His VP? (Obama supporters)
Yes, Obama 43% Yes, Clinton 30%
No, another 43 No, another 58
Are You Certain Of Your WH '08 Have You Seen Any TV Commercials
Choice, Or Are You Still Deciding? For Clinton/Obama? Clinton Obama
Now 3/08 2/08 1/08 Yes 88% 94%
Certain 83% 80% 63% 54% No 11 5
Still deciding 17 19 37 46
Chandler Cling A Strategic Vision (R) poll; conducted 4/11-13; surveyed 576 Dem LVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 4/16).
WH '08 Primary Election Matchup Which Is Most Important To Your WH
Now 4/6 3/30 3/9 '08 Primary Choice?
H. Clinton 49% 47% 49% 56% Now 4/6 3/30 3/9
B. Obama 40 42 41 38 Change 41% 43% 41% 45%
Undec 11 11 10 6 Experience 41 40 40 39
Do You Agree/Disagree With Obama That People In Small Towns In PA
"Cling To Guns Or Religion Or Antipathy To People Who Aren't Like Them
Or Anti-Immigrant Sentiment Or Anti-Trade Sentiment As A Way To Explain
Their Frustrations"?
Agree 31%
Disagree 55
No Pressure Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton "face off again tonight in what could be the most critical engagement of this protracted primary season." But "experts in presidential and campaign rhetoric say both candidates should keep their cool. Rather than come out swinging, they should rely on the strengths they've shown in their past encounters: Obama his charisma, Clinton her mastery of policy detail." PSU prof. Colleen Kelley: "He's an articulate and energetic speaker and he's very bright and that comes across very clearly in his presentations. And he's very good on TV, that's another huge thing. ... Clinton's strengths are the reverse. She is articulate, very structured in her presentations, a very methodical speaker. ... She provides evidence for her points before we ask for it" (Orr, Newark Star-Ledger, 4/16). This is the first debate "in front of a live, prime-time, major-network audience." Media consultant Neil Oxman: "After this past week, this debate is a much bigger deal. Everybody knows this race was getting close, and something happened to change the dynamic. This is Obama's chance to set aside and get back to his 'change' conversation, or not" (Davies, Philadelphia Daily News, 4/16). Obama "was holed up" 4/15 in his Philly hotel, prepping for the debate. Philly public affairs consultant Larry Ceisler: "He has to decide if he wants to play it safe because it is probable that he will be the nomine or he wants it to end. She has to swing for the fence. She may not have other opportunities" (Budoff Brown, Politico, 4/16). Here are 3 things to watch for in the debate tonight:
The Story That Keeps On Giving "New polls suggest that the recent controversy may have blunted whatever momentum Obama had generated in his quest to overtake Clinton" in PA. "The surveys showed no drop in Obama's standing; in most, he remained within single digits of Clinton. But he had been gaining ground before last week" (Eichel/Worden, Philadelphia Inquirer, 4/16). New York Sun's Wapshott writes, "You don't have to be as cunning as Karl Rove to see that Obama's candidacy offers a perfect chance for opponents" to paint him "as a deeply flawed presidential contender." The 'guns and religion' remark is a reminder that the senator is not quite the person he sets out to appear to be'" (4/16). "Who says Pennsylvanians aren't bitter, particularly when it comes to their politics?" In "a series of interviews with The Patriot-News this week, interviews in small" PA towns said Obama "was dead on when he said it is understandable if many folks like then are 'bitter.'" But "they hold out little hope" that Obama, Clinton, or John McCain "will make their lives any better" (Lieberman, Harrisburg Patriot-News, 4/16). You're On Notice! More than 1K ticket-holders milled 4/14 for upward of 2 hours around Zellerbach Theatre in Philly as Stephen Colbert "took his show on the road for the very first time." 3.6K tickets were available for the 4-day event, but "the minute Colbert announced his trip" 3/17, "most tickets vanished online within five minutes." Clinton supporter/Philly Mayor Michael Nutter (D) "talked gun control with the show host, whose truthiness tells him firearms are fabulous. Why control 'em, when you could just issue body armor to every citizen, Colbert asked?" Nutter: "Too costly" (Strom, Philadelphia Inquirer, 4/16). Don't Waste My Time, Show Me! Obama and Clinton "have both promised to get tough with China on trade policy, but steelworkers" in PA say they want more than specifics. United Steelworkers pol. dir. Chuck Rocha: "We ant to hear in detail what [the candidates] are going to do to offset the job loss that we are seeing." To highlight the issue, the Alliance for American Manufacturing "plans to run advertisement announcing, 'China Cheats. Pennsylvania Loses,'" in several PA papers leading up to the primary. PA is home to 175K retired steelworkers. The union, who favored John Edwards until he dropped out, has not endorsed a candidate (Hayner, The Hill, 4/15). To The Pope-Mobile! With Pope Benedict XVI arriving in the U.S. 4/15, there was talk about the Catholic vote in PA: CNN's Crowley, on polls showing white Catholics in PA supporting Clinton over Obama: "Remember that Catholics voted for Bill Clinton in '92 and '96. So, the Clinton name carries some cache here. They remember him fondly. I also think, though, there are some overlapping constituencies here. When you say Catholics in Pennsylvania, you're talking in large part about the working class. And the working-class vote, particularly among whites, has belonged to Hillary Clinton. She does very well in that demographic. Also, when you're talking about Catholics, you are talking about older women. And that is her target audience. So, I think it's not just that they're Catholic, but there are other things" ("Election Center," 4/15). Clinton comm. dir. Howard Wolfson: "I think he is spending more money on TV this week than anyone in the history of Pennsylvania politics" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 4/16). It's The Final Countdown! The Clinton and Obama camps "will have an opportunity to size each other up" during the Monroe Co. Dem Cmte's monthly meeting 4/17. Local representatives of both candidates will address the audience beginning at 7 p.m. Monroe Co. Dem chair Gratz Washenik: "They're going to tell us what they'll be doing in the final hours of the campaign." More Washenik: "It's always been a civil campaign here" (Pocono Record, 4/16). The two camps bought at least $4.5M of time of commercials in the closing week. Obama has bought $3M this time, breaking the PA record he set last week. Clinton purchased $1.4M, her largest ad buy to date (Philadelphia Inquirer, 4/16) Blue Collar Love About a quarter of PAans are in blue-collar jobs and their impact on the primary "could exceed that level." Mulhlenberg College prof. Chris Borick: "In Pennsylvania it's always important and in a Democratic primary that importance in magnified. And in this particular primary in the Democratic Party it's a incredibly important constituency." "Nobody can win it without carrying the blue-collar vote, according to Borick" (Herman, Cox, 4/16). Not To Burst Your Bubble... New York Observer's Kornacki writes, "It feels like we're counting down to something momentous in Pennsylvania. The candidates have practically moved into the state, each day brings at least one new poll, and Ed Rendell is on one of the cable news channels every 12 minutes." But PA doesn't have the kind of power to decide the primary outcome "--just the illusion of it." If Obama "somehow wins, he'll be the nominee. But in all likelihood, he'll lose. And in all likelihood, he'll be the Democratic nominee anyway" (4/15). Jumping Through Loops NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) was on "Election Center" last night to talk about Mayors Against Illegal Guns' new ad featuring all three candidates: CNN's Brown: "You're running these ads ... in Pennsylvania, which holds its primary next week. It seems to me like you think the candidates, all of them, are basically just paying lip service to the issue." Bloomberg: "Well, I hope that's not the case. What we're trying to do is to get Congress to close a few loopholes in laws that they passed, which keep guns out of the hands of criminals. And everybody says, well, let's wait and see who the new president is. Maybe they'll support it, maybe they won't. And what we're saying is all three of the major candidates have said they oppose this loophole, that they would want to change it and close it. And so we say to Congress, don't wait another six months while more criminals can get guns. Act now" (CNN, 4/15). (Back to Contents)
WH '08 Primary Election Matchup
All Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Non-Wht 18-44 45+
B. Obama 40% 41% 47% 46% 35% 35% 60% 51% 31%
H. Clinton 35 41 24 35 35 38 22 26 43
Other 6 2 3 6 5 6 5 7 5
Undec 19 16 26 13 25 21 13 16 21
Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Direction Of U.S.
Who Has A Better Chance Of Beating All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
McCain? All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht Right dir. 11% 14% 12% 14% 8%
B. Obama 37% 38% 36% 33% 56% Wrong dir. 81 76 73 74 79
H. Clinton 18 18 18 17 20
Equal 28 32 25 31 16 Will The Dem Primary Battle
Neither 8 7 8 9 3 Ultimately Help/Hurt The Dem Nom.
Undec 9 5 13 10 5 In Nov.? All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
Help 26% 26% 25% 24% 35%
Should SuperDels Vote For The Hurt 32 32 31 31 32
Candidate They Like Or The One Who No effect 30 31 29 32 19
Won The Popular Vote In Their
State? All Men Wom Does Obama's Race Make Him More/
Vote as they like 39% 39% 40% Less Electable In Nov.?
Vote like their state 52 53 51 All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
More 14% 18% 12% 14% 18%
If The Dem You Support Does Not Less 19 20 17 17 22
Get The Nod, Who Will You Support Not imprt. 63 60 65 64 59
In Nov.? All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
Dem Nom. 50% 54% 46% 46% 64% Does Clinton's Gender Make Her
J. McCain 22 23 21 25 9 More/Less Electable In Nov.?
Other 7 7 7 7 6 All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
Won't vote 6 4 8 6 6 More 11% 12% 11% 9% 22%
Undec 15 12 18 16 15 Less 29 24 32 29 26
Not imprt. 57 60 55 60 47
Does B. Clinton's Participation In
HRC's Campaign Make You More/Less Does Knowing The Clintons Earned
Likely To Vote For Her? $109M Since They Left The WH
All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht Change Your Opinion Of HRC As A
More 29% 39% 21% 30% 25% Candidate Who Understands The Needs
Less 22 19 25 22 21 Of Avg. Americans? All Men Wom
No effect 47 41 52 47 49 Changed/for better 9% 9% 8%
Changed/for worse 5 5 5
Has Obama's Handling Of The Rev. No change 82 80 84
Wright Controversy Made You Think
More/Less Highly Of Him? If Obama Gets The Dem Nod, Will His
All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht Association With Rev. Wright Be A
More 20% 18% 21% 19% 21% Problem? All Men Wom Wht Non-Wht
Less 23 25 21 26 8 Yes 47% 51% 45% 52% 26%
No effect 56 55 57 54 69 No 47 45 48 42 67
Down In Kokomo, That's Where You Want To Go Obama mgr David Plouffe during a campaign stop in Kokomo on 4/15 "was noncommittal" when asked about a visit to Howard County. Plouffe: "I'm getting the message loud and clear. He will be [in Indiana] a lot" after the PA primary. Political analyst Brian Howey said a Kokomo visit could come in the waning days of the campaign, when interest in the primary will intensify. Howey: "I'd be shocked if Kokomo didn't get a visit. I would expect Hillary to be there before the primary." IN Univ. prof. Todd Bradley can't understand why the candidates haven't made plans to visit Kokomo. Bradley: "It would be nice to get a visit from one of the candidates, even John McCain. Hopefully one or two will come to Kokomo before the primary election." With its strong labor union presence, Bradley can't understand why a candidate would not visit Kokomo. Bradley: "Kokomo is a bastion of unionism. It's peculiar that none of the candidates have stopped here" (de la Bastide, Kokomo Tribune, 4/15). (Back to Contents)
WH '08 Primary Election Matchup
All Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+
B. Obama 47% 50% 56% 55% 43% 37% 71% 60% 41%
H. Clinton 34 32 30 30 36 46 5 31 35
Other 2 1 3 2 2 3 -- 1 3
Undec 17 17 11 13 19 14 24 8 21
Regardless Of Your WH '08 Choice, Direction Of U.S.
Who Has A Better Chance Of Beating All Men Wom Wht Blk
McCain? All Men Wom Wht Blk Right dir. 12% 21% 18% 22% 9%
B. Obama 39% 39% 38% 30% 58% Wrong dir. 81 68 72 68 80
H. Clinton 17 12 21 23 3
Equal 27 34 22 25 30 Will The Dem Primary Battle
Neither 7 9 5 10 1 Ultimately Help/Hurt The Dem Nom.
Undec 10 6 14 12 8 In Nov.? All Men Wom Wht Blk
Help 20% 22% 20% 18% 24%
Should SuperDels Vote For The Hurt 33 38 29 37 23
Candidate They Like Or The One Who No effect 36 33 37 35 39
Won The Popular Vote In Their
State? All Men Wom Does Obama's Race Make Him More/
Vote as they like 38% 37% 38% Less Electable In Nov.?
Vote like their state 54 59 51 All Men Wom Wht Blk
More 18% 13% 22% 17% 20%
If The Dem You Support Does Not Less 18 24 15 20 14
Get The Nod, Who Will You Support Not imprt. 57 58 55 56 59
In Nov.? All Men Wom Wht Blk
Dem Nom. 58% 60% 57% 52% 72% Does Clinton's Gender Make Her
J. McCain 20 24 18 27 5 More/Less Electable In Nov.?
Other 4 3 4 3 4 All Men Wom Wht Blk
Won't vote 4 2 5 4 4 More 14% 11% 16% 11% 21%
Undec 14 11 16 14 15 Less 27 28 27 30 21
Not imprt. 55 56 54 55 54
Does B. Clinton's Participation In
HRC's Campaign Make You More/Less Does Knowing The Clintons Earned
Likely To Vote For Her? $109M Since They Left The WH
All Men Wom Wht Blk Change Your Opinion Of HRC As A
More 24% 25% 23% 26% 18% Candidate Who Understands The Needs
Less 22 25 19 22 22 Of Avg. Americans? All Men Wom
No effect 52 49 55 50 58 Changed/for better 12% 14% 11%
Changed/for worse 3 4 2
Has Obama's Handling Of The Rev. No change 81 79 83
Wright Controversy Made You Think
More/Less Highly Of Him? If Obama Gets The Dem Nod, Will His
All Men Wom Wht Blk Association With Rev. Wright Be A
More 27% 31% 24% 26% 28% Problem? All Men Wom Wht Blk
Less 20 18 21 28 2 Yes 42% 48% 38% 53% 15%
No effect 51 51 52 44 68 No 53 50 55 41 83
A Ella Le Gusta La Metrolina An American Research Group (R) poll; conducted 4/14-15; surveyed 600 Dem LVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 4/16).
WH '08 Primary Election Matchup
Now 3/30
B. Obama 52% 51%
H. Clinton 41 38
Other 2 4
Undec 5 7
'Cause I've Got A Golden Ticket -- Wait, Obama's Not Coming? The NC Dem Party isn't waiting for Barack Obama's "key R.S.V.P. before inviting more guests" to the 4/27 debate. The party already has an entry form on its Web site for a drawing to receive tickets. NC Dems say they're flexible. NC Dem chair Jerry Meek: "If the 27th doesn't work for them, the R.B.C. Center is available on other days, and we can work with them." Meek said there was no contingency plan if the Obama camp does request a different date. Though they "would not say how many had signed up so far," the party is certainly collecting lots of e-mail addresses on its ticket entry form (Wheaton, New York Times blog, 4/15). Gov. Mike Easley (D) is "urging" Obama "to agree to a debate" in NC. In a letter on 4/15, Easley wrote to Obama that a debate with Hillary Clinton would "energize and motivate" NC voters ahead of the primary. Easley writes that the debate would benefit 75K new Dems and 50K unaffiliated voters who have recently registered. Easley adviser Mac McCorkle said the letter should not be read as favoring one candidate over the other. McCorkle: "This was part of a larger effort of" Dem "elected officials and the state party to push for this debate" Ingram, Charlotte Observer, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
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Nelson: "I think it is better than that. Realistically, the total number of delegates decided in the state is not large. My understanding is that 10 delegates will be distributed proportionately. Yet at that point, every single delegate becomes important to the candidates." Northern State Univ. prof. Ken Blanchard "says political scientists have tried to pin down with varying success the influence of polling on the electorate." Blanchard: "However, when someone is running really low in polls, it is the way news people talk about it as a forgone conclusion. Everyone thinks" Clinton wins PA, "and then people talk that way. That has influence. People don't like to lose, and other things are being equal, they vote for the candidate who they think will win." For example, Blanchard uses the shift in the vote of black Americans this election season. McGovern Library dir. Donald Simmons says polling numbers move in a number of directions. Simmons: "Obama may take the information and go one way with it. Clinton will go another way with them. The credibility (of the poll) is of vital importance (4/16). (Back to Contents)
| 4/16 | 4/17 | 4/18 | 4/19 | 4/20 |
-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
CLINTON |DC:Building|NPE |NPE |NPE |NPE |
|Trades Conf| | | | |
|PA: Debate | | | | |
-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
OBAMA |Philly,PA: |Greenville |NPE |NPE |NPE |
|ABC Dem |NC:East | | | |
|Debate |Carolina U | | | |
-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
And the GOP field:
| 4/16 | 4/17 | 4/18 | 4/19 | 4/20 |
-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
MCCAIN |WI And DC: |NPE |NPE |NPE |NPE |
|Dinner At | | | | |
|White House| | | | |
-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
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"The Constitution Party says its mission is to limit the federal government to functions spelled out in the U.S. Constitution and 'restore American jurisprudence to its original Biblical common-law foundations.'" "Keyes singled out the nation's present 'border issue' as a reason he is leaving the GOP." Keyes: "There are clear signs that our leaders no longer have an allegiance to the sovereign people of the United States." "Keyes declined to say whether he will seek the presidency with the party," which holds its convo next weekend in Kansas City (AP, 4/15). Keyes "announced his intention to run for president ... in front of a crowd of about 60 supporters" in Hazleton, PA. "The conservative activist said he is considering seeking the nomination of the Constitution Party, though he'd run regardless of his party affiliation." Keyes said he chose Hazleton "because of the attention it's received for immigration. ... But Keyes also noted the strong immigrant heritage in the area, lauding 'people who came here from different places to build a better life and discover the dignity of liberty, though they knew there would be those who sought to exploit them.'" "He blasted politicians who pander to groups, likening them to characters looking for protection money in gangster movies." Keyes: "Are you bitter because we haven't taken good enough care of you? Every official in this country does not swear to take care of you but to take care of our liberty." (Keyes "lost in a landslide" to Barack Obama in IL SEN'04.) Keyes singled out John McCain "for being 'dedicated to the destruction of this republic.' ... Calling himself a 'life-long Republican,' he said he's abandoned the party because it no longer believes in what he saw as its founding principles, and had become 'as bad as the Democrats'" (Tarone, Hazleton Standard-Speaker, 4/15). Huckster? Wall Street Journal's Davis writes, Mike Huckabee "reincarnated his presidential campaign site" 1/15 "into the online venue for his newest venture: Huck PAC." Huckabee "is hoping to translate his grassroots support" into PAC dollars "that he could spread among federal and state candidates." Mission statement: "Huck PAC is committed to helping" GOPers "regain control of the House and Senate, regain a majority of governorships and elect" McCain. "It's an ambitious goal for a candidate who ran his campaign on a shoe-string budget.... Huckabee does, however, retain a strong vein of support and goodwill among social conservatives and evangelicals.... He also remains friendly" with McCain; "the former rivals shared perhaps the most congenial relationship" between the candidates ("Washington Wire," 4/15). However, "the biggest beneficiary of Huck PAC may be Huckabee himself. Analysts compared his start-up to a PAC that Ronald Reagan launched following his failed 1976 presidential campaign." GOP strategist/historian Craig Shirley "said the decision to name the PAC after himself may signal a Huckabee-centered focus that could turn off conservative givers." "Reagan's PAC was named Citizens for the Republic." Shirley: "Even Reagan said it was always about his ideas, not himself." GOP strategist Bill Vickery: "In essence, you're fronting a cause. I would think that we have seen the beginning of Mike Huckabee's national political career and this is just another step in that beginning" (Sadler, Arkansas News Bureau, 4/16). Brown Nosing Around British PM Gordon Brown is planning to meet with each of the candidates on 4/17. British pollster Peter Kellner: Pres. Bush "is largely irrelevant. But if the news comes across" that McCain, Obama, and Hillary Clinton "all take this guy seriously, whether it's on the Middle East, climate change or the credit crunch, that would be a success." "One thing [Brown and Bush] share is low popularity: Brown's approval ratings are sagging amid growing economic problems and what critics call a lack of direction in his government. A YouGov poll last weekend found that 28 percent of Britons thought Brown was doing a good job, his lowest approval rating since taking office last summer." European expert/Obama adviser Philip Gordon "said that while Bush has moved to accommodate Britain and other European countries during his second term, he believes Brown 'is looking for a new kind of American foreign policy'" after Jan. '09. Gordon: "Bush and the U.S. relationship has been a burden for Brown. He can really turn the page with a new administration" (Abramowitz/Sullivan, Washington Post, 4/16). Brown was on "GMA" this a.m., where he was asked about Iraq and WH '08: Brown, asked which candidate he'd be happiest with as POTUS: "That's for the American people. ... That's a decision rightly so for the American people. I think what's fascinating about the campaign in America is the level of interest." Asked what he's going to tell the three candidates they must do in order to restore the American engagement abroad: "I think Europe and America are going to work more closely together in the years to come. It's partly because the divisions within Europe over Iraq will come to an end." More: "All of them want to deal with climate change. I think all of them want to build a stronger international economy where we can have better relationships, particularly with Asia. I think all of us want to play a bigger part in creating stability in areas like Africa, and deal with the sense of injustice that exists in many countries of the world where some people are missing out on the benefits of globalization" (ABC, 4/16). Meet The Pre-Teens All three WH '08ers appeared on the Country Music Television awards 4/14 in a skit featuring Miley Cyrus. See the skit here. McCain's appearance received the most media attention (Hotline TV watching). See the reviews below: Talk radio host Ed Schultz: "It doesn't hurt. ... It's good for a laugh. We've got to have a little bit of fun with this as we go along. It can't all be jabs and jars all the time. It is a fact that parents are influenced by their kids. And there's a lot of kids that pay attention to Hannah Montana" ("LKL," CNN, 4/15). GOP strategist Kellyanne Conway: "He has a great sense of humor. It's good to show the levity. Ultimately, voters ask themselves two questions about the presidency. Do I like you? That's the classic litmus test. But the real connective tissue is are you like me? And this shows a kind of realness, if you will. It makes them more accessible" ("LKL," CNN, 4/15). The Money Pits Chicago Tribune editorializes, Obama and McCain "have put a high emphasis on ethics in government, sometimes to the chagrin of their stablemates in Washington. ... So why are Obama and McCain trying to play cutesy with the campaign finance system?" Obama "declined to accept matching funds" in the primary, "but has said he would rely on public financing" in the general -- if the GOPer "does the same." McCain "also declined to take primary matching funds, though he waited" until Feb. "McCain now says he'll take public financing for the general election -- and he's telling Obama to do the same thing. Obama, though, knows he can raise more money from donors than McCain can. So he hasn't committed to the public system, which would limit the candidates to spending the exact same amount." Obama and McCain "aren't arguing about ethics here. They're arguing about tactics." "The system that is supposed to wean presidential candidates from private fundraising doesn't work," and it has become "little more than a distraction. It hasn't created a higher ethical standard in politics or government. Let's just do away with it" (4/16). (Back to Contents)
In a later interview, Allen "said McCain hasn't reached the point of picking" a VP candidate. Allen: "He'll make a decision in due time, but I don't think there is actually any list yet." Allen, asked if he would accept the VP slot if McCain offered: "If he wants me to be his blocking back, I'll be his blocking back" (Schotz, Hagerstown Herald-Mail, 4/16). Really? You Get Along "Very Well?" Mitt Romney continues to make the TV rounds. Romney, asked if the chances of him being VP have increased: "No, I don't think so" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 4/15). Romney: "I think it's very unlikely that I'll be John McCain's running mate. He's a fine person. We get along very well. ... He's got a lot of great people to choose from. I'm sure he'll do a fine job in doing just that." CNN's Brown: "But why do you think it's unlikely that you would be chosen?" Romney: "There are so many good folks that are out there, and the other folks haven't been rivals in the presidential sweepstakes, and he's going to make a very careful assessment of who the individual might be that could strengthen his ticket. ... I just think that I'm focused not on the V.P. sweepstakes these days, but instead on electing Republican Senator McCain, as well as other senators and congressmen across the country" ("Election Center," CNN, 4/15). No, He Just Likes Meeting With People NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I) was on "Election Center" last night to talk about Mayors Against Illegal Guns' new ad featuring all three WH '08ers, where he was asked if he would consider being VP on either party's ticket. Bloomberg: "I don't think there's any chance of anybody asking me to be their vice president" (CNN, 4/15). (Back to Contents)
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WH '08 General Election Matchups
All 3/2 2/1 11/1 1/07 All 3/2 2/1 1/07
J. McCain 48% 44% 49% 43% 45% B. Obama 49% 52% 49% 47%
H. Clinton 45 50 46 52 50 J. McCain 44 40 46 45
Other 1 * * 1 * Other * * * *
Undec 1 1 2 1 1 Undec 2 3 3 3
Fav/Unfav Now 1/12 11/1 Overall, Would Obama's Level Of
B. Obama 56%/39% 63%/30% 51%/36% Experience Help/Hurt Him As POTUS?
J. McCain 53 /40 59 /30 43 /42 Help 38%
B. Clinton 47 /51 na na Hurt 51
H. Clinton 44 /54 58 /40 50 /46 No difference 6
Overall, Would Clinton's Political Overall, Would McCain's Temperament
Style Help/Hurt Her As POTUS? Help/Hurt Him As POTUS?
Help 44% Help 37%
Hurt 49 Hurt 48
No difference 2 No difference 7
If Elected, McCain Will Be The Which Is More Important To You In
First 72-Year-Old POTUS -- Does A WH Candidate? Now 3/2 2/1
That Make You More/Less Strength/experience 49% 45% 51%
Enthusiastic About His Candidacy? New direction/ideas 43 46 39
Now 3/2 1/12
More 3% 4% 3% Is Hillary Clinton Honest And
Less 26 27 31 Trustworthy? Now 5/06
No difference 70 67 64 Yes 39% 52%
No 58 42
Has Obama Distanced Himself Too
Much/Little From Rev. Wright? Would A Dem Or GOPer Do A Better
Too much 5% Job Handling ___? Dem GOP NoDiff.
Too little 30 The economy 55% 34% 6%
Right amount 59 The sit. in Iraq 52 35 7
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WH '08 General Election Matchups
Now 4/13 4/12 4/11 4/10 4/9 4/8 4/7 4/6 4/5 4/4 4/3 4/2 4/1
B. Obama 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% 45% 46% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 44%
J. McCain 44 44 43 43 43 44 44 44 45 45 45 46 46 46
Other 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Neither 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
Undec 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4
Now 4/13 4/12 4/11 4/10 4/9 4/8 4/7 4/6 4/5 4/4 4/3 4/2 4/1
H. Clinton 46% 46% 46% 46% 46% 45% 46% 46% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45%
J. McCain 44 45 45 45 45 46 46 46 47 47 47 46 47 47
Other 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Neither 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4
Undec 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
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WH '08 General Election Matchups
Now 3/14 2/16 Now 3/14 2/16
J. McCain 45% 46% 40% J. McCain 46% 48% 50%
B. Obama 45 40 47 H. Clinton 41 40 38
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General Election Matchups J. McCain 52% J. McCain 51% H. Clinton 40 B. Obama 39 Undec/other 8 Undec/other 10(Back to Contents)
WH '08 General Election Matchups
Now 4/6 3/30 3/9 Now 4/6 3/30 3/9
J. McCain 47% 42% 41% 48% J. McCain 49% 48% 47% 47%
H. Clinton 44 45 47 42 B. Obama 39 41 42 44
Undec 9 13 12 10 Undec 12 11 11 9
Bush As POTUS Congress Job Approval
Now 4/6 3/30 3/9 Now 4/6 3/30 3/9
Approve 23% 25% 24% 26% Approve 14% 16% 15% 17%
Disapprove 71 68 67 65 Disapprove 71 72 71 70
Rendell As Gov. Specter As Sen.
Now 4/6 3/30 3/9 Now 4/6 3/30 3/9
Approve 55% 54% 52% 54% Approve 52% 53% 54% 53%
Disapprove 38 36 37 39 Disapprove 35 36 39 37
Casey As Sen. Bush Handling Economy
Now 4/6 3/30 3/9 Now 4/6 3/30 3/9
Approve 49% 48% 48% 47% Approve 15% 17% 16% 18%
Disapprove 37 35 37 35 Disapprove 79 78 76 73
Bush Handling Iraq Bush Handling War On Terrorism
Now 4/6 3/30 3/9 Now 4/6 3/30 3/9
Approve 31% 29% 28% 25% Approve 52% 53% 53% 52%
Disapprove 63 63 63 69 Disapprove 37 38 37 38
Should The U.S. Withdraw All Is Bush A Ronald Reagan Conserv.?
Troops From Iraq Within 6 Mos.? (GOPers) Now 4/6 3/30 3/9
Now 4/6 3/30 3/9 Yes 8% 7% 8% 11%
Yes 40% 42% 44% 47% No 77 75 73 70
No 47 47 47 46
Still A Swinger As it has for the past 2 general elections, PA "figures to play a pivotal role as a highly contested battleground" for Nov. After voting for Ronald Reagan and George Bush in the '80s, PA swung Dem for Bill Clinton in '92 and '96. PA remained in Dem hands during the last 2 elections, "albeit narrowly enough to become one of the increasingly few states in which nominees from both parties have spent significant amounts of time and resources." If PA "is a swing state," the Philly suburbs "are its swing region." F&M analyst Terry Madonns: "If any candidate has a chance to eat away at the Democratic propensities in the suburbs, it would be McCain. There are aspects of his life and candidacy and voting record and all that that will help him with those voters. And if he can figure out a way to hold on to the hard conservatives ... he can make this competitive." Also, as Clinton and Obama "continue to lace attacks against one another" the extended PA primary "could prove harmful to the party" (Conroy, CBSNews.com, 4/14). (Back to Contents)
"Plans to add money for such things as transportation, unemployment insurance, aid to states, food stamps, public housing and veterans' benefits has prompted veto threats" from the WH. OMB dir. Jim Nussle said 4/15 "that only a month remains before the Pentagon would threaten to furlough thousands of civilian employees." The Pentagon made a similar threat in Dec. '07 before Congress appropriated $70B for the wars. Nussle, on Dems: "They're trying to figure out how to put everything onto this." And in testimony prepared for the Senate Approps Cmte today, Nussle calls the war funding measure "the last big money train out of town before the election." Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid "have not decided which items to seek as part of the war funding request and are hoping to reach agreement" with the WH "on some of it." Reid spokesperson Jim Manley said the items being reviewed would be "quick ways to stimulate the economy" (Wolf, USA Today, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
DEM FIELD: Kos Tells The Superdelegates What's Up Daily Kos' Markos Moulitsas pushes back against the Clinton camp's electability arguments: "The Clinton concern trolls (see Bayh, Evan) are fond of telling us all the things the super delegates should consider when choosing between Clinton and Obama. For example, they're supposed to overturn the will of the primary electorate because Obama's preacher said something craaaazy that one time. Then they're supposed to overturn the will of the primary electorate because Obama quoted Thomas Frank's What's the Matter With Kansas -- even though the book was the darling of the progressive establishment in 2005 and no one accused Frank of being 'elitist' back then, those Clinton concern trolls quoting the book's themes approvingly (see Clinton, Bill)." Moulitsas continues: "But that game looks like fun. Here, let me have a turn! Here's some things the supers should consider when making their decisions: (1.) When a Democrat has message discipline with the Republican nominee and the entire VRWC, perhaps there's some disconnect? Notice how McCain and Fox News didn't pile on Clinton after her Bosnia fantasies. The reason is obvious -- the VRWC doesn't want Obama to win. It's cute that Clinton and her former (and future) tormentors have all found temporary common ground against Obama, but let's not fool ourselves that this is anything more than a situational alliance. (2.) [...] Who do you think is more 'electable'? The candidate people like, or the candidate people don't like? (3.) Nationally, Obama is increasing his leads over Clinton. Perhaps it's because people really don't like to be told that they're 'optimistic' about being screwed over economically." DEM FIELD II: Who's More Electable? Several liberal bloggers are discussing John Judis' article in The New Republic, in which Judis argues that Obama is dangerously vulnerable in "the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri":
CLINTON: By Any Means Necessary Liberal bloggers continue to condemn Clinton's aggressive campaign tactics:
OBAMA: Weathering The Storm? Several liberal bloggers are looking at PA polls and national polls and concluding that Obama has survived the "Bittergate" controversy without suffering too much damage:
Meanwhile, TAPPED's Sam Boyd is impressed by Obama's counterpunching skills: "Ben Smithpoints out that Obama has done a great job in this and other crises to fight back and make 'gaffes' less damaging than they might have been. This is something liberal writers have been clamoring for for years, but it's great to see it in action and I think Obama has gotten too little credit for it." OBAMA II: ...Or Is He Doomed? Many conservative bloggers, in contrast, seem to feel that Obama's comments have provided Clinton with a huge opening in the nomination race:
OBAMA III: Pass The Brie And Chablis, Please Conservative bloggers continue to portray Obama as an out-of-touch elitist:
OBAMA IV: Is That A Flag Pin On Your Collar, Senator? Righty bloggers are mocking Obama for wearing a flag pin given to him by a disabled veteran, after declining to wear a flag pin last year:
MCCAIN: Stepping Over Sanford NRO's David Freddoso reports that McCain is unlikely to pick SC Gov Mark Sanford as his running mate: "[Sanford] is still perceived by some (perhaps by many conservatives) to be a strong candidate for John McCain's vice presidential slot. The only problem is, he is not viewed so kindly in McCain circles. If Mitt Romney is a very long longshot for the spot, Sanford may be even longer. [He] was a McCain backer in 2000...but his reluctance to endorse McCain in a timely fashion this year was a major issue. Sanford has not shown public signs of craving the position, either. McCain insiders say that the real question is not whether Sanford will be vice president, but whether he was ever under serious consideration." This news does not sit well with AmSpec Blog's Quin Hillyer: "[Freddoso's report] chafes me no end. Basically, it says that McCain won't consider Mark Sanford for Veep because of hard feelings about Sanford not endorsing McCain in the primaries this time after having done so in 2000. If this is true, it shows incredibly pettiness, arrogance, and stupidity on the part of the McCainiacs, very much in line with the overblown code of loyalty that led both Bushes to value loyalty and even sycophancy above merit. Just because Sanford endorsed McCain in 2000, as a congressman, doesn't mean he is obligated to do so again as a governor in 2008. [...] Look: If Sanford would make a good vice president and a good vice presidential candidate, it shouldn't matter one bleeping bit who he endorsed." THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Boss Speaketh The New Republic's Jason Zengerle reacts to Bruce Springsteen's endorsement of Obama: "At this point, Bruce's fan base probably clings more to arugula than guns (and I say this as member of that fan base), but it's interesting that the 'troubadour of the working class' felt compelled to come out for Obama now. Of course, this just raises the question: If there was a musician whose endorsement could offset bittergate and help Obama in small-town America, who would it be? Toby Keith? Alan Jackson? Bret Michaels?" LEST WE FORGET: Starbury For LVP ESPN's Bill Simmons gives his 2007-08 "Least Valuable Player" Award to the Knicks' Stephon Marbury: "Even before the season, Marbury looked like the favorite for my annual LVP ('Least Valuable Player') Award thanks to some peculiar TV interviews, a prominent role in the sexual harrassment suit against the Knicks and the inspiration for at least 50,000 fantasy team names that somehow involved the words 'truck' and 'party.' Then the season started and he splintered the Knicks during a vicious argument with Isiah Thomas that included the reported threat, 'He thinks he can [bleep] me, but I'll [bleep] him first.' [...] He played 24 games and participated in a whopping six victories (considering he makes $20 million, that's more than $3.3 million per victory), then took an extended leave of absence after his father's death and nobody cared if he came back. And finally, he opted for season-ending ankle surgery when he easily could have waited until the summer. We've had nuclear leaks that were remembered more positively than Marbury's 2007-08 season."To read the unabridged edition of the Blogometer, visit http://blogometer.nationaljournal.com. Questions, comments, reservations? Drop us a line at blogometer@nationaljournal.com. (Back to Contents)
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General Election Matchup B. Schaffer 45% M. Udall 45 Undec/other 10 Mile-High Money Schaffer raised $1.02M in the 1stQ, leaving him $2.2M CoH, while Udall raised $1.45M with $4.2M CoH (Crummy, Denver Post, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
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MT GOP officials said in March that they hoped Garnett would withdraw after it was revealed that he's wanted in IN on a warrant for failing to appear in court as part of his probation on charges of stalking, harassment and invasion of privacy (Billings Gazette, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
LoBiondo: "Having served with Dick Zimmer in Congress for two years, I know he will bring his pork-busting, fiscally conservative record into the U.S. Senate and serve the people of New Jersey with honor, which is why I am endorsing his run for U.S. Senate" (Friedman, PolitickerNJ.com, 4/15). Meanwhile, state Sen. Joe Pennacchio (R) and '00 candidate/'97 Libertarian GOV nominee/Ramapo College prof. Murray Sabrin (R) "have raised roughly equal amounts of money, but Pennacchio has a much larger cash reserve." Pennacchio has raised $361.7K for his run so far -- including the two weeks that have passed since the FEC 3/31 cut off date. He currently has $279K CoH. Sabrin has raising approximately $350K, but has spent $284K, leaving him about $66K CoH. Zimmer won't have to file until after the 2ndQ (Friedman, PolitickerNJ.com, 4/15). All three vying for the GOP nod "will participate in a debate" hosted by Fairleigh Dickinson U. 4/22. The debate will be moderated by Newark Star-Ledger columnist Paul Mulshine (Friedman, PolitickerNJ.com, 4/15). Orange You Gladding I Didn't Say Banana Rep. Rob Andrews (D-01), busy with his challenge to Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) for the Dem nod, "found himself under attack from another quarter" 4/15 -- minister/NJ-01 candidate Dale Glading (R). Glading accused Andrews of a conflict of interest for steering funds to the school that employs his wife. Andrews "responded that he had submitted his request" to a House cmte, which ruled in Apr. '07 there was no conflict. Andrews earmarked $624K in a Labor Dept. appropriations bill in '07 "to support student scholarships and internships at the Rutgers Law School in Camden," from which Camille Andrews is currently on leave as the associate dean in charge of admissions. Glading: "Hand-delivering our tax dollars to his wife's department at Rutgers is immoral and unethical." Andrews "asked for and received approval" from the House Cmte on Standards before submitting the request. He also disclosed the request when he made it. He "defended the grant as entirely appropriate, noting that it will help some law students with tuition and help them and others provide free legal assistance to the needy" (Pearsall, Cherry Hill Courier-Post, 4/16). Andrews got the endorsement of United Foods and Commercial Workers Local 1360, which represents 11K South Jersey members (Pizarro, PolitickerNJ.com, 4/15). (Back to Contents)
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Realtor Candy Neville (D): "One of the things I noticed that Gordon Smith and I had in common is that neither of us had done anything progressive in the Senate over the last seven years." To date, the "race has largely been viewed as a tight contest" between State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) and ex-DoJ atty Steve Novick (D), "who espouse liberal and often identical views." The three "agreed on most of the broad policy issues they were asked about." Each "advocated providing universal health care and allowing" illegal immigrants a "path" to citizenship while penalizing employers who hire them. All three "said they oppose any attempt to return to nuclear power as an energy source" (Esteve, Portland Oregonian, 4/16). "Of the few differences that did surface between the candidates, Novick said he would lean against allowing an off-reservation casino to be built by the Warm Springs tribe in Cascade Locks, citing environmental concerns." Neville "said she would likely support it, and Merkley said he was still weighing both sides of the issue" (Silverman, AP, 4/16). Portland Oregonian's Mapes, who moderated the debate, writes, Neville "held her own with the two major candidates." Merkley "appeared most in command on foreign policy issues such as how to handle a nuclear-armed Iran." Novick "basically said he liked Barack Obama's approach to Iran and Neville kind of wandered around on the issue for a minute." Novick "managed to display his engaging personality to full effect, and he frequently worked in his main campaign theme that he sticks to his principles, tells the truth and will shake things up in Congress a bit" (4/15). Every Place Has A Thing And Everything In Its Place Neville "has struggled for attention." The "mother of three grown children," Neville "was so heartsick over the war in Iraq that she decided to do something." She said the war is responsible for the poor economy, the country's lack of resources and dreadful standing abroad. "She also favors a generous universal health care system, thinks illegal immigrants should be able to become legal and wants to use" OR's "rich natural resources to build a sustainable and prosperous economy." She "thinks her chances of winning are high, if she gets enough exposure." Neville: "I'm hoping that people will actually do their homework and pay attention...If people just pay attention, it will benefit all of us, including me" (Har, Portland Oregonian, 4/15). Spend About An Hour On The Tower Of Power Meanwhile, it's Novick who is "fighting against" a Capitol Hill "powerbroker with a proven record of shepherding his preferred candidate to victory" in DSCC chair Charles Schumer (D-NY). In '06 Schumer "muscled" now-Sens. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Jim Webb (D-VA) to Dem primary wins. But Novick "could be on track to upend Merkley, whom Schumer recruited" and whom "he has continued to assist with infrastructure and strategic advice." If nothing else, some Dems "believe that Novick's spirited challenge to Merkley, who is making his first run for statewide office, will make him a more battle-tested candidate against Smith in the fall" (Drucker, Roll Call, 4/16). The Essentials OSU prof./atty/ex-NEA chair John Frohnmayer (I) said those essentials of democracy -- "free speech, free press, open discussion, dissent and, above all, reading -- are in danger of going down the tubes in an atmosphere driven by fear." The speech, "in which Frohnmayer tried to stay shy of politics, was the keynote event of Jackson County Reads." Frohnmayer "urged 150 people to create some new habits -- promote liberal education, insist on the rule of law, protect the integrity of scientific research, stop asking for balance in news and on public bodies (when the balancing person is espousing clearly noncredible views) and support the right to dissent" (Darling, Ashland Daily Tidings, 4/15). (Back to Contents)
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Thompson "criticized the governor for privatizing state assets and said communities are hurting." They also "leveled criticism at each other." Thompson "raised questions about a limited liability corporation Schellinger formed with his business partners that has made contributions to his campaign, and accused him of lobbying for property-tax increases as an architect for schools." Schellinger "said Thompson was distorting the truth about those issues, saying the contributions are legal." Schellinger "noted Thompson's long career in government and called her plan for capping the sales tax on gasoline" a "knee-jerk" attempt to win votes (Weidenbener, Louisville Courier-Journal, 4/16). Schellinger "repeatedly pointed out that he's from a working-class family and put himself through college working second shift at a tool-and-die plant." Thompson "repeatedly pointed out that she grew up on a farm and, while in Congress, never voted to raise a tax or pad her own pay" (Schneider, Indianapolis Star, 4/16). Thompson "had the line of the night." Talking about Daniel's decision to lease the IN Toll Road to pay for road projects, Thompson: "That's like selling a farm to pay for a combine" (Indianapolis Star, 4/16). "The most interesting exchanges of the night surrounded ethics and negative attacks. Long Thompson's were direct, while Schellinger employed a more subtle approach." Long Thompson "challenged her rival to open the books" of corporations he's involved in, and Schellinger responded that he would do so. Schellinger: "This is where I'm supposed to come back at my opponent...but I'm not going to go there. We've got a governor who has polarized this state. We need a governor that's going to bring us all back together again" (Kelly, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, 4/16). Raising The Stakes Meanwhile, Daniels "has raised more than three times as much money" as each of the two Dem challengers. Daniels had raised more than $8.3M as of the end of the 1stQ. By comparison, Schellinger and Long Thompson had raised $2.3M and $907.9K respectively. Daniels "is on pace to surpass" the $16.8M he raised in his first run in '04. At "this time four years ago, Daniels had raised" $5.7M (Ruthhart, Indianapolis Star, 4/16). Schellinger raised about $511K in the 1stQ, and now has about $715K CoH. Long Thompson raised $470K in the 1stQ and has $484K CoH (Martin, AP, 4/15). (Back to Contents)
Thanks to a "hefty family loan," totalling $570K so far, Steelman reported $1.4M CoH. That's "almost twice the on-hand tally of Hulshof, even though he has the backing of most of the state party's establishment" (Mannies, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 4/16). Meanwhile, Steelman "touted her anti-illegal immigration bonafides" in St. Charles Co., "where the issue has flared up in recent years." Asked "whether she has any differences on the subject" with Hulshof, she "said she didn't know" his position "other than that Congress hasn't done anything about the issue." Hulshof, of course, is a member of Congress (Schlinkmann, St. Louis Post-Dispatch's "Political Fix", 4/16). (Back to Contents)
The focus on McCrory's mayoral history, particularly by state Sen. Fred Smith (R) and ex-Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr (R), "reflects both the perception that he is a leading candidate three weeks" before the 5/6 primary "and also that his past could turn into a weakness among likely conservative voters." Smith "went after McCrory early in the debate, accusing McCrory of increasing government spending in Charlotte at a rate of 10 percent a year." McCrory "retorted that he hasn't supported a property tax increase since becoming mayor" in '95 "and pointed out that the combined city-county tax rate in Smith's hometown is higher than in Charolotte." Orr "jumped in, arguing that Charlotte keeps property taxes lower because the city involuntarily annexes sections" of Mecklenburg Co. every few years, "taking in revenues from new residents and borrowing more money." After "attempting to refute" other charges, McCrory "said he learned to take criticism while mayor and previously as a basketball referee" (Robertson, AP, 4/16). The "verbal dueling signals Smith's efforts to convince voters that he is the more conservative candidate in hopes of cutting McCrory's lead in the race" (Johnson/Ingram, Charlotte Observer, 4/16). Just Trying To Stay Positive Meanwhile, days after LG Beverly Perdue (D) "called for a positive campaign" in the Dem race, "an attack" on Treas. Richard Moore (D) emerged. As part of her pledge, Perdue "also asked supporters to sing a positive note." But the Nat'l Education Assoc. "had already sent" 10K "glossy attacks on Moore to retired educators" in NC. The mailer argues that Moore has "lagged behind his peers in pension management performance," failed to provide the legislature with reports on performance of money managers and supported cuts to Social Security, Medicare and military retirement." Moore mgr. Jay Reiff: "Perdue's pledge was a short-lived fraud." Perdue, 4/15, "reiterated her call for positivity." Moore "is apparently not buying it. He has summoned reporters to a news conference" to talk about the mailer (Niolet/Beckwith/Krueger, Raliegh News & Observer, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
Rossi: "Christine Gregoire started talking about congestion relief, but unfortunately, she's also said that she wants to force 50% of us out of our cars by 2050. Everybody thinks 'Well, you're not talking about me because I have important things to do.' Well no, she's actually talking about you." The Gregoire camp dismissed the Rossi plan. And on both the 520 bridge and the Alaskan Way Viaduct, Rossi's ideas run counter to local public opinion as well as powerful interest groups, a problem that has plagues Gregoire since she took office. Gregoire spokesperson Aaron Toso said Rossi's plans don't "jibe with reality." Toso: "The numbers just don't add up. Rossi wants to build a bigger 520 bridge that's going to cost less. He's going to dig a tunnel to replace the viaduct and it's only going to cost $2.8 billion." Toso on congestion relief: "Safety is and will remain the governor's No. 1 priority when it comes to transportation issues" (McGann, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 4/15). (Back to Contents)
Want to make sure you NEVER miss out on a key "On Call" post? Then signup for "On Call" email alerts. Email Alerts How do you Hotline? There are so many ways. Are you not receiving the new and improved Hotline email alert? If you aren't, you're missing out. The Hotline email alert now encompasses the first four pages of Hotline each day, including the front page, Quote of the Day, table of contents and the "Overlooked." If you are not signed up for The Hotline email alert, click here to make it happen (and select "The Hotline"). PDAs, Yeah, We've Heard Of Them Wake-Up Call! is available via your PDA. Click here for instructions on downloading. Nationaljournal.com's pm update also is available for PDA users. Click here for details. To access Wake-Up Call! on your phone, you need to directly bookmark the sites above. The bookmark for Wake-Up Call! is http://nationaljournal.com/avantgo/wakeup.htm. Of course, you can access to the entire The Hotline via your PDA!!! Click here to sign up for the special HotlineMobile email alert . Putting The Numbers In Your In-Box NationalJournal.com's Poll Track -- where, by the way, you can find the numbers that have run here in Hotline archived by campaign and issue -- now offers a daily HTML E-Mail Alert. Get a quick rundown of the newest national polls, along with direct links to Poll Track's archives and other resources. Click here for a sample edition, or sign up right now. (Back to Contents)
L. Bush: Not Moved By Muslin Meanwhile, L. Bush and J. Bush tell People magazine about the writing process behind their new children's book, "Read All About It!" L. Bush: "We talked about the idea for a year, then one day Jenna started writing, while Barbara and I went for a walk, When we came back, it was pretty much done!" Asked if she cried when she saw the dress, L. Bush said, "I didn't cry. I've only seen the muslin" (release, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
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Moral Terpitude Is In The Eye Of The Beholder People in AL convicted of crimes involving "moral terpitude" would be "barred from seeking elected city or county offices" in Mobile Co. under a bill approved 4/15 by a state House cmte. "But exactly what constitutes such a crime is unclear." Bill sponsor/state Rep. Jim Barton (R) "said he thought the law would apply to crimes such as solicitation of prostitutes, driving under the influence or alcohol and possession of drug paraphernalia." Barton: "You can be convicted of soliciting of prostitution and still hold office in the state of Alabama. I would hope we'd hold our elected officials to a standard higher than that" (Altman, Mobile Press-Register, 4/16). Oddly Amusing Gorbachev Watch Ex-Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev's next U.S. speaking engagement: tonight at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino near Hollywood, FL. Turns out Gorbachev "is popular among top Seminole tribal leaders" (Santiago, Miami Herald, 4/16). Being On The Inside, It Changes You "In a possible case of mistaken identity," OR dog owner Ken Griggs "said the black Labrador named Callie that he left" at the Tail Wag-Inn kennel before spring break "was not the same dog he picked up." Griggs, on "the impostor": "It's a sweet dog. ... I like it, but I want mine." Griggs "said he immediately noticed differences" in the dog he picked up. For one, "The family cat, normally friends with Callie, hissed at the dog." But the owners "of the seven other black Labs" at the kennel at the time "all said they had the right dog." Still, shelter officials "arranged for the owners and their dogs to meet" 3/31 "for a possible exchange." One black Lab "got excited when the Griggses approached, the kids declared it was Callie and in the car the dog went. It was the same dog Griggs had just returned." Griggs: "It's uncanny how much it looks like my dog" (AP, 4/16). (Back to Contents)
This Morning "Today" led with Pope Benedict XVI's visit. "Early Show" led with the pope's visit. "GMA" led with the pope's visit and hosted British PM Gordon Brown. Hitting The Sauce Last night on "Hardball," a Villanova Univ. student asked John McCain the following question about Hillary Clinton: "I'm sure you saw one of your Democratic opponents, Hillary Clinton, recently drinking whiskey shots with some potential voters. I was wondering if you think that she's finally resorted to hitting the sauce because of some unfavorable polling, and I was also wondering if you would care to join me for a shot after this?" McCain, in response: "I did not see the clip of it, but I certainly heard about it, and whatever makes Senator Clinton happy is certainly ... You know, I've had two of the best questions, or the toughest questions that I have ever had ... in the last two questions" (MSNBC, 4/15). As it turns out, the question came from Peter Doocy, son of FNC's Steve Doocy. Peter, who interned at "Fox & Friends" in '04, phoned into the show this a.m. to talk about his question (ThinkProgress.org, 4/16). P. Doocy, asked by his dad about the response his question has received: "It's been good. [The question was] an example of what college kids want to know about." More P. Doocy, asked whether Chris Matthews might have recognized his last name: "I think that he might have. He looked a little grumpy. But I don't think it really mattered because nobody was there for Chris Matthews. Everybody was there for John McCain, and he did a great job. I think that was a good moment for him."
Put Me In, Coach FNC's Gretchen Carlson asked P. Doocy whether his father "coached" him in one-liners. P. Doocy: "I was not coached. The only thing that my dad ever taught me about shots was that I need to get tetanus and mumps when I was younger, that's it." S. Doocy, interrupting: "Hey Peter, you lay off the sauce, too." The Reaction S. Doocy, on Peter's question: "That's my boy!" Carlson: "It was a great question." FNC's Brian Kilmeade: "Great job, Peter" (FNC, 4/16). Time Is Not On Their Side "According to the usage guidelines circulated by ABC," other news orgs. "are only allowed to excerpt half a minute" from tonight's 90-minute Dem WH '08 debate at the Nat'l Constitution Center's Kimmel Theater in Philly at 8 pm. "That means choosing only one 30-second clip to use on television and the Web between" 11 pm 4/16 and 5 am 4/17. ABC "defends the restrictions as being 'very reasonable.'" An ABC spokesperson: "We have an obligation to our West Coast affiliates to not make chunks of the debate available until their viewers have had a chance to see them." By "tape-delaying the debate for its West Coast" stations, it seems ABC is "treating the debate as a television show rather than as a live news event. When cable news channels sponsor debates, they telecast the forums live across all time zones." The cable news channels actually "may make it their business to skirt ABC's rules." FNC, CNN and MSNBC "can be expected to use 'fair use' justifications to show more clips from the debate, especially if" Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama "have a newsworthy exchange" (Stelter, "TV Decoder," NYTimes.com, 4/15). Stop By And Say Hi PBS' Gwen Ifill will be online for her monthly webchat 4/17 at noon. Click here to speak with her. Hostess With The Mostess Laura Bush will guest-host the 9 am hour of NBC's "Today" 4/22. L. Bush, who will be the first FLOTUS to guest-host the program, will also be joined by her daughter, Jenna Bush, "earlier in the broadcast for a special look at their new children's book, 'Read All About It!" As a guest host, L. Bush "will learn the ins and outs of hosting a morning show, and she will participate in several segments and interviews." Moreover, she will give Ann Curry a "rare look" inside the Bush family ranch in Crawford, TX (release, 4/15). A "Today" spokesperson said "there could also be a 'surprise' guest or two dropping by during the hour" (Starr, New York Post, 4/16). Laugh Track Jay Leno: "Today, a very exciting day for Catholics all across America. Pope Benedict XVI made his first trip to America today and witnessed a miracle ... at the airport. American Airlines flights were leaving on time. It's a miracle! ... And I thought this was kind of cool. You know, President Bush actually met the pope at the airport? He did. ... He picked him up. That wasn't easy. 'Cause, you know, they don't let you stop at the curb anymore. So, Bush had to keep circling. Bush is driving by, [and] the pope is trying to flag him down. ... Oh, it was a huge, huge, big deal. Although I don't think President Bush is too familiar with the Catholic religion. There was one awkward moment when President Bush kept looking behind the pope going, 'So, where's Mrs. Pope?' I don't quite think he understands. President Bush also told the pope that he has prayed every single day since he became president. Hey, since Bush became president, we've all prayed every single day. Now what do you think of this idea? This seemed odd to me. For the pope's arrival ceremony at the White House tomorrow, they're going to give him a 21-gun salute. Now, really, isn't there a better welcome for the Apostle of Peace than a show of firearms? I mean, whose idea was that? Dick Cheney's? ... Why do you have a 21-gun salute? Anyway, the pope will be visiting New York later in the week. He'll be doing a mass at Yankee Stadium. That'll be pretty cool. Then, he's gonna spend over 12 hours hearing the sins of the two New York governors. So, that should be fascinating. That'll be all day. Oh, we also want to wish Pope Benedict a happy birthday. Tomorrow, he'll be 81 years old. The pontiff, 81 years old. Do you realize in a couple more years, he could be the next Republican nominee?" ("Tonight Show," NBC, 4/15). David Letterman: "It's exciting to be here now because you know what's going to happen? The pope is coming to New York City. Can you feel the excitement? He arrived earlier today in Washington, D.C. Of course, he flew Virgin Atlantic. ... But did you hear about this? He's getting on the flight in Rome, and he was almost not allowed on the aircraft because he tried to bring on more than three ounces of holy water. That's right. The pope will be in Washington D.C. for two days. ... If you know anything about the pope, everything for the pope is first class. ... He'll be staying at the Mayflower, in their Eliot Spitzer suite. ... And then on Sunday, the pope will perform mass at Yankee Stadium. Here's how they'll break that down. He'll do 45 minutes and then Mariano Rivera will come in. Who? Mariano Rivera will close" ("Late Show," CBS, 4/15). Jon Stewart: "I am going to tell you ... does anyone feel a little bit of a tingle? A little certain sense of spiritual enlightenment? ... Are you having trouble masturbating? Are you? Take your time. Because that can only mean one thing. The pope is here! He arrived in America ... just minutes ago. Hours ago. I hope he had a good trip. The only thing that you always worry about is, Americans are so busy, they work so hard. I hope someone had the time to go get him at the airport [on screen: networks talking about Pres. Bush meeting the pope at Andrews AFB]. ... The president picked up the pope at the airport. How bored is our president? He's not the president anymore. Now he's like your college stoner roommate, doing favors for pizza. Next week I think he's helping Putin move. Obviously picking up the pope at the airport is, I don't want to make fun. It's an important job. Been a very long flight. I'm sure the pope is probably a little tired. He gets off the plane. There's a lot of people there. You're gonna want to make sure you have proper signage when you get him [on screen: A photo of Bush at the airport, with a sign saying "POPE"]. ... And I'll tell you what else. Here is the real pain in the ass. You know the guy is here for six days, the pope, and you know what that means: checked luggage. Many bags look alike. ... Make sure you get his bag. ... They didn't lose his luggage. That's a miracle. Anyway, full coverage of the pope's visit tomorrow, if he clears customs. You know people hide weed in their miters" ("Daily Show," Comedy Central, 4/15). Stephen Colbert: "The big story from the campaign trail is still Senator Obama's comments that many small town folks are bitter, so they 'cling to guns or religion.' This is indefensible, but it does prove he is the candidate of hope. He certainly gave hope to Hillary Clinton's campaign. Because, sure, folks in small town America are losing their jobs, their houses, and millions of them are uninsured, but the biggest problem is that Barack Obama condescended to them. Which brings us to tonight's 'Word': Tradition. Now, folks, personally I love being condescended to. And so do the wonderful people of Pennsylvania! ... But Obama's comments proves he's out of touch with ordinary people, ordinary people like reluctant multimillionaire Hillary Clinton. She understands that guns and religion are proud family traditions that are handed down from generation to generation. Dick Cheney has a similar story. Only it ends with him shooting his father in the face. ... My problem is not that Senator Obama condescended. It's that he did it the wrong way. This is how you do it. Sucking down pizza, raising the roof, eating Huck-a-burgers and shaving old men. That gives voters like me the sense that the candidates are just like me. The sad part is, Senator Obama showed such promise in the past. Look at him. Completely out of keeping with his personal narrative, feeding a cow. [on screen: Obama feeding a cow a bottle of milk]. But he delivered it with pitch perfect pandering, bravo! But, this new "bitter" statement is classic Obama. All condescension with flowery words. No condescension with actions. You really want to make it seem like you're going to make jobs come back? Then at least make the effort once every four years to put on a hard hat and get photographed pulling a factory lever. And maybe people are bitter with the failure of their government. But isn't the best way to get that taste out of their mouth with a pancake breakfast? This whole controversy just reminds people that Barack Obama may not have the experience to be the condescender-in-chief. Look how uncomfortable he is pretending to like bowling [on screen: Obama bowling]. On the other hand, look how comfortable Hillary is pretending to be comfortable [on screen: Clinton taking a shot of whiskey]. Senator Clinton can condescend the right way because Senator Clinton is not an elitist. She understands that you have to respect the American people. Unless the American people want Barack Obama, in which case you really got to have the superdelegates decide. Somebody's got to save us from rubes, and that's 'The Word'" ("Colbert Report," Comedy Central, 4/15). Jimmy Kimmel: "This morning, Pope Benedict arrived in the United States. I was up all night cleaning, I swear. It's the new pope's first visit to the United States, and President Bush did something today that no president has ever done for a world leader. He went to the airport to pick him up. Here's the president. [on screen: Photo of Bush at the airport, with a sign for the pope]. He made the sign himself actually. That's nice. More than 10,000 people are on the waiting list to get into the pope's mass at Yankee Stadium on Sunday. That's Hannah Montana big. That's really big. I do like Pope Benedict. This pope is the first pope in history who's named after my favorite way to eat eggs. The pope has a very busy schedule during his six-day trip. He has the White House today. He's got masses in Washington, D.C., and in New York" ("Jimmy Kimmel Live," ABC, 4/15).
TOP TEN REASONS I LIKE BEING AN ACCOUNTANT
(as presented by a group of accountants)
10. My exciting lifestyle is the envy of all my claims
adjuster colleagues.
9. I made ten grand doing taxes for Leona Helmsley's
dog.
8. Numbers are my only friends.
7. What other job allows you to show up for work in
just a suit and tie?
6. Mild-mannered day job protects my true identity:
Batman.
5. I'm always the first to hear about all the latest
calculator innovations.
4. I was a finalist on last season's "Accounting With
The Stars."
3. When some idiot asks me about a form 8038-G
information return for tax-exempt governmental
obligation, when they really mean a form 1038-R
recovery of overpayment under arbitrage rebate
provisions -- that s***'s hilarious!
2. If I screw up something, you go to jail, not me!
1. I get more tail than George Clooney (CBS, 4/15).
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