Playing For Keeps

There's lots of talk about the increasing likelihood that Dems will hit the big Six-Oh in the Senate. They've got lots of opportunities, but zero room for error.

-- First they need to win every state where their candidate is now ahead - VA, NH, CO, NM, AK and OR. Then they need to win states where the race is essentially tied - NC and MN. Even then - and assuming Landrieu holds on in LA - they'll still come up one seat short. So if you're looking for where the Battle to 60 is won or lost, look at these four states: GA, MS, KY and ME. If Dems can't win at least one here - they can't make it.

-- DailyKos/R2K poll shows GA's Chambliss up just 1 pt. Obama's registration and GOTV efforts will help Martin. But the Dem is woefully underfunded. Will the DSCC step in?

-- KY's McConnell knows how to win tough races, but this is the worst enviro he's ever seen. Lunsford has lots of $$, with baggage to match. Even as the margin has closed in ME, Collins remains well positioned. The MS race is close, but it's one of the few where GOPers are playing more offense than defense.

-- Of course, even if Dems come up short, they'll likely have a handful of moderate R's to lean on for some fillibuster-busting votes. Paging Sens. Snowe and Specter ...