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Mon. Jun 23, 2008National Journal's Daily Briefing on Politics
Spotlight
Dream Maker or Deal Breaker
We've got "Let's Make A Deal" and "Deal or No Deal." But only Hotline brings you "Just How Big Of A Deal Is It?" Today's topics include:
-- The Newsweek poll: The new survey shows Obama w/ a 51-36% lead over McCain - a whopping 15-pt swing since 5/08. Other nat'l polls continue to show Obama w/smaller leads. Is this the first sign of the post-primary Obama "bounce"?
-- Obama's bounce isn't as notable as McCain drop. How can one explain a 10-pt slip when there've been no big developments over the last 4 wks? Methodology is one factor. The pool of respondents was overwhelming tilted - Dems had a 14-pt advantage on party ID (19 pts w/leaners).
--Flip-flopping: The Sunday shows zeroed in on them. Could McCain have gotten more mileage out of Obama's reversal on public funds if he had unveiled his drilling proposition another week (or vice versa)?
----HRC/Obama Mayflower meeting: new FEC reports revealed: 1) the true (and quite significant) size of HRC's debt and 2) signs of Obama donor fatigue. Will these affect the commitment the Obama camp is willing to make to get HRC's financial house in order? Will this be a deal-breaker for future appearances?
Quote of the Day
"I'm not sure his feet are in cement on this if prices go to $10 a gallon."
— Ex-PA Gov. Tom Ridge (R), asked why John McCain now supports offshore drilling but not ANWR, "Fox News Sunday," 6/22.
Top News
Science Fair
McCain talks about re-inventing electric car batteries in CA, but how much blowback will he get for offshore drilling? (#3)
Speculative Returns
Obama blames speculators, Enron loophole (and Phil Gramm) for high gas prices; will this satisfy voters who want relief today? (#4)
ANWR Angst
A 6/08 DSCC poll shows McCain, Obama tied in AK; does this push Gov. Palin up on McCain's short list? (#22)
The Watergate Strategy
In a fall NC SEN preview, Hagan calls Dole a DC insider (who knew?) while Dole calls Hagan a tax raiser. (#41)
Security Detail
In ME SEN, Allen says Collins wasn't doing enough oversight on Iraqi contractors, Collins hits Allen for voting agnst FISA deal. (#39)
Contents Mon. Jun 23, 2008
Today's Frontpage
- GENERAL ELECTION: Flip-Flops, So Hot Right Now
- FUNDRAISING: Beware The Ides Of May
- MCCAIN: Trading Assaults
- OBAMA: Houston, We've Got A Problem
- BARR: Check The Expiration Date For Spoilage
- NADER: Fighting Illini
- GOP VEEPSTAKES: Drilling Down
- DEM VEEPSTAKES: He's Asking For It
- CONVOS: Excuse Me, Where's The Nearest Smoke-Filled Room?
- IPSOS PUBLIC AFFAIRS: Gladys Knight & The Ips
- GALLUP: On The Bathtub Mar-Gin
- NEWSWEEK: Oval Efface
- USA TODAY/GALLUP: And What Favor-able Would Your Friend Grant Mr. Woltz?
- 2008 SCHEDULES: Life Is What You Bake Of It
White House 2008
- FLORIDA (27 EVS): Tip O'Neill Is Still Right
- MICHIGAN (17 EVS): Message: I Care (More Than You)
- MISSOURI (11 EVS): When You Say Budweiser, You've Said It All
- NEVADA (5 EVS): Let's Play 20 Questions, I've Thought Of Nine So Far
- OHIO (20 EVS): Let's Play Risk
- PENNSYLVANIA (21 EVS): Yard Signs For Everyone!
White House 2008 -- The Battleground States
- THE SOUTH: We Shall Rise Again
- ALASKA POLL (3 EVS): Anchorage Man
- CALIFORNIA (55 EVS): Is Gay Marriage Legal On Offshore Oil Rigs?
- INDIANA (11 EVS): The Dome Still Stands, BTW
- KANSAS (6 EVS): We're Not The Ruling Party Anymore, Toto
- KENTUCKY POLL (8 EVS): Maker's Mac
- MAINE (4 EVS): Fifth Time's The Charm, Ayuh
- NEBRASKA (5 EVS): Yarrgh, Captain Obama
- NEW JERSEY (15 EVS): Testing, Testing, Check 1, 2
- UTAH POLL (5 EVS): Mormony, More Problems
White House 2008 -- Other State Updates
- BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Ready For Your Mid-Year Check-Up?
- ALASKA: Cold Shoulder
- COLORADO: An Orr-dinary World
- KANSAS: So You're Saying It May Not Be A Snoozer This Time
- MAINE: Sergeant Bilk-O
- MONTANA: The Ballad of Bob
- NORTH CAROLINA: Dole-ing Out The Criticism
- SOUTH CAROLINA: Whose Side Are You On?
- SOUTH DAKOTA: If You Say So, But Roasted Mutton Tastes Really Good
Senate 2008
- INDIANA: Vote Him Off The Island
- MISSOURI: Better Things To Be Doing
- NORTH CAROLINA: President Kryptonite
- NEW HAMPSHIRE: Male Bonding
- DELAWARE: Doubling Down
- UTAH: Ending Their Exile
Governor 2008
- ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST: You've Come A Long Way, Baby
- AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP (R): Everything's Just Im-Peachy
- NATIONAL JOURNAL: The Mask Of Zero
Poll Update
- MCCLELLAN: Not On Drugs, He Tells Congress
- BUSH, L.: All Creatures, Great And Slimy
- SPECTER: Looking Dapper
- SPITZER: War-Torn Nations Now Seem Downright Relaxing
- BERKLEY: See, He Was Just Playing Coy
- CUNNINGHAM: If It Behooves You
- KILPATRICK: Pay Your Own Phone -- Er, Legal Bills
- PRESS PASS: New, But Improved?
- NEWS BAZAAR: Demented Lemurs, Another Great Band Name
People
- MEDIA MONITOR: This Morning
Media Monitor
??? Overlooked ???
Weekend At Vito's
Although likely NY-13 nominee Frank Powers (R) may have passed away, death doesn't always preclude a primary victory. In the '98 OK SEN Dem primary, the deceased Jacquelyn Morrow Lewis Ledgerwood (D) beat two living candidates to make it into the runoff. Although she ultimately wasn't nominated, she still won a respectable 25% two months after passing away.