What's the 411 On The 527?

Many have written about how Obama's public financing opt-out allows him to expand the EC playing field. Of course, every time he enters a non-traditionally targeted state we'll still be left to speculate whether it's a head fake or true strategic decision.

-- But Politco's Martin and Bloomberg's Salant also spotlight the serious gaps in the 527 firewall that's supposed to protect McCain from being engulfed by Obama's huge money advantage.

-- Indie fundraising is down across the board from where it was at this point in '04 - by about $10M. But GOP indie groups are in a particularly anemic state. Donors to '04 stalwarts like Swift Boat Vets and CFA aren't ponying up this year. And Freedom's Watch is staying House focused.

-- This isn't to say that new groups won't spring up. But McCain's public animus to lobbyists/special-interest groups is not exactly encouraging potential funders. More important, big donors know when to invest and when to stay out. Right now, they see a lot of risk - and don't know what kind of return they'll get.

-- So, what will get them off the sidelines? Like any good investor, they need to get consistent signals of a competitive, winnable race.