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Tuesday, October 12, 2004
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Today's National Polls
Today's polls are compiled by NationalJournal.com staff WH 2004, Iraq Conducted 10/6-7/04; surveyed 1,211 adults; margin of error +/-3% (release, 10/8). A response of * indicates less than 0.5 percent. Subsamples: 1,024 registered voters, margin of error +/-3%; 866 likely voters, margin of error +/-4%. Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans. For whom would you vote, Kerry and Edwards, or Bush and Cheney? (Asked of registered Bush voters) Was there a time in the past few months that you were supporting Kerry but changed your mind?Yes, was 10% No, was not 90 (Asked of registered voters) Last night/Tuesday night there was a debate between the two vice presidential candidates, John Edwards and Dick Cheney. Did you watch any of that debate?Yes, was 5% No, was not 95 (Asked of registered voters) Just based on what you saw or heard, which candidate, John Edwards or Dick Cheney, do you think won that debate?Watched 64% Did not watch 36 (Asked of registered voters) Did the vice presidential debate between John Edwards and Dick Cheney make you more likely to vote for John Kerry, more likely to vote for George Bush, or did it not really have any impact on your vote one way or another?Cheney 33% Edwards 28 Neither (vol.) 4 Both (vol.) 9 Don't know/Didn't watch 25 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) Just based on what you've seen or heard about the debate, which vice presidential candidate _____?More likely Kerry 16% More likely Bush 15 No impact 68 Don't know 1 (Asked of registered voters) Turning now to the presidential candidates, the first of three presidential debates was held last Thursday evening between George Bush and John Kerry. Did you watch any of last Thursday's debate?Had the best understanding of the issues: Edwards 36% Cheney 47 Neither 3 Both 7 Don't know 7 Refused 1 Was more likeable: Edwards 54% Cheney 34 Neither 3 Both 3 Don't know 5 Was more believable: Edwards 43% Cheney 44 Neither 4 Both 5 Don't know 4 Would you trust most to lead the country if something were to happen to the president: Edwards 44% Cheney 50 Neither 1 Both 1 Don't know 4 Refused 1 Took positions on issues that are closer to your own: Edwards 45% Cheney 41 Neither 3 Both 3 Don't know 7 (Asked of registered voters) Regardless of how you might vote, which candidate, George Bush or John Kerry, do you think won last Thursday's debate, just based on what you've seen or heard?Watched 72% Did not watch 28 (Asked of registered voters) Did the presidential debate between John Kerry and George Bush make you more likely to vote for John Kerry, more likely to vote for George Bush, or did it not have any impact on your vote one way or another?Kerry 59% Bush 23 Neither 2 Both 3 Don't know/Didn't watch 12 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) Just based on what you've seen or heard about the debate, which presidential candidate _____?More likely Kerry 30% More likely Bush 14 No impact 55 Don't know/Didn't watch 1 (Asked of registered voters) There will be another debate between Kerry and Bush Friday night/tomorrow night. Regardless of how you're planning to vote, who do you think will win Friday's debate?Had the best understanding of the issues: Kerry 43% Bush 43 Neither 3 Both 6 Don't know 4 Refused 1 Was more likeable: Kerry 49% Bush 41 Neither 4 Both 3 Don't know 2 Was more believable: Kerry 47% Bush 42 Neither 3 Both 3 Don't know 4 Took positions on issues that are closer to your own: Kerry 48% Bush 42 Neither 2 Both 3 Don't know 4 Refused 1 Seemed more presidential: Kerry 45% Bush 46 Neither 3 Both 3 Don't know 3 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) Which of the following issues is most important to you in deciding how you might vote for President in November -- the economy, moral values issues, such as gay marriage and abortion, health care costs, the situation in Iraq or the war on terrorism? If you had to choose one?Kerry 38% Bush 32 Neither 1 Both 2 Don't know 26 (Asked of registered voters) Which candidate, Bush or Kerry, do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?Economy 27% Moral values 12 Health care 16 Situation in Iraq 19 War on terrorism 21 Other (vol.) 1 Don't know 2 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of _____. If you don't have an opinion of this candidate, just let me know.The economy: Kerry 49% Bush 42 Neither 2 Both 1 Don't know 5 Refused 1 Moral values issues: Kerry 41% Bush 45 Neither 4 Both 1 Don't know 8 Refused 1 Health care: Kerry 52% Bush 36 Neither 3 Both 1 Don't know 8 Refused 1 The situation in Iraq: Kerry 42% Bush 50 Neither 2 Don't know 4 Refused 1 The war on terrorism: Kerry 38% Bush 53 Neither 3 Both 1 Don't know 4 Refused 1 Understanding the needs of people like yourself: Kerry 49% Bush 40 Neither 4 Both 1 Don't know 4 Refused 1 Providing strong leadership in difficult times: Kerry 39% Bush 53 Neither 2 Both 1 Don't know 4 Refused 1 Tax policy: Kerry 45% Bush 43 Neither 3 Both 1 Don't know 7 Refused 1 Being commander in chief of the armed forces: Kerry 42% Bush 51 Neither 2 Both 1 Don't know 4 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his job as president?John Kerry: Favorable 50% Unfavorable 34 Don't know 15 Refused 2 John Edwards: Favorable 49% Unfavorable 26 Don't know 24 Refused 2 George W. Bush: Favorable 48% Unfavorable 42 Don't know 9 Refused 1 Dick Cheney: Favorable 42% Unfavorable 39 Don't know 18 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) Do you approve of disapprove of the way Dick Cheney is handling his job as vice president?Approve 50% Disapprove 46 Don't know 3 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) In your opinion, do you think President Bush deserves to be re-elected to a second term, or do you think it is time for someone else to be president?Approve 51% Disapprove 38 Don't know 11 (Asked of registered voters) Regardless of how you might vote, do each of the following accurately describe George Bush or not?Deserves re-election 45% Time for someone else 51 Don't know 3 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) Regardless of how you might vote, do each of the following accurately describe John Kerry or not?Honest and trustworthy: Accurate 52% Not accurate 44 Don't know 4 Understands the issues: Accurate 63% Not accurate 35 Don't know 2 Is likeable: Accurate 65% Not accurate 31 Don't know 3 Refused 1 Has good judgement: Accurate 49% Not accurate 47 Don't know 3 Sticks to his positions: Accurate 81% Not accurate 16 Don't know 3 Has clear plans to help solve America's problems: Accurate 46% Not accurate 49 Don't know 5 (Asked of registered voters) Do you think that the U.S. spends about the right amount of money on _____, too much money or not enough money on _____?Honest and trustworthy: Accurate 52% Not accurate 38 Don't know 10 Understands the issues: Accurate 67% Not accurate 28 Don't know 5 Is likeable: Accurate 70% Not accurate 25 Don't know 4 Refused 1 Has good judgement: Accurate 54% Not accurate 37 Don't know 8 Refused 1 Sticks to his positions: Accurate 42% Not accurate 48 Don't know 10 Has clear plans to help solve America's problems: Accurate 47% Not accurate 45 Don't know 8 (Asked of registered voters) Would you personally support or oppose a tax increase if the tax money was used just for homeland security?The military: Right amount 31% Too much 14 Not enough 46 Don't know 9 Refused 1 Homeland security and the fight against terrorism: Right amount 31% Too much 15 Not enough 41 Don't know 12 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) Turning to the U.S. military, do you think that the military now has about the right number of troops to meet America's needs around the world, has more troops than it needs or doesn't have enough troops.Support 53% Oppose 41 Don't know 6 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) The U.S. has not had a military draft since the 1970s. If more soldiers are needed in Iraq or other places, would you favor or oppose reinstating the draft that requires young people to serve in the military?About right number 29% More than needed 7 Not enough 55 Don't know 9 (Asked of registered voters) If elected, do you think that John Kerry is likely to try to reinstate the draft?Favor 31% Oppose 64 Don't know 4 (Asked of registered voters) If re-elected, do you think that George Bush is likely to try to reinstate the draft?Likely 22% Not likely 57 Don't know 20 (Asked of registered voters) Do you think the United States was right or wrong in going to war with Iraq?Likely 42% Not likely 46 Don't know 13 (Asked of registered voters) Do you think that the United States' actions in Iraq have made the world safer or more dangerous?Right 45% Wrong 49 Don't know 5 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) Which candidate, John Kerry or George Bush, has the better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq?Safer 39% More dangerous 49 Both (vol.) 4 Don't know 7 Refused 1 (Asked of registered voters) Should the U.S. send more troops to Iraq now, keep about the same number of troops as now, or reduce the number of troops in Iraq?Kerry 39% Bush 44 Neither (vol.) 4 Both (vol.) 1 Don't know 10 Send more 24% Keep same number 33 Reduce troops 29 Withdraw all (vol.) 3 Don't know 11 Refused 1
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