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GovernmentExecutive.com - Covering The Business Of The Federal Government
Tuesday, October 12, 2004 : Today's National Polls

Today's polls are compiled by NationalJournal.com staff
and gathered in conjunction with The Hotline.
Questions and polling press releases should be directed
to polls@nationaljournal.com.

Please click here for links to other recently released national polls.

CNN/GALLUP/USA TODAY
WH 2004

Conducted 10/9-10/04; surveyed 1,015 adults; margin of error +/-3% (release, 10/11). Subsamples: 484 adults in Form A, margin of error +/-5%; 531 adults in Form B, margin of error +/-5%; 793 likely voters, margin of error +/-4%; 941 registered voters, margin of error +/-4%. A response of * indicates less than 0.5 percent.

First, we have some questions about the election for president, which will be held in November. How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot or only a little? 
Quite a lot             81%
Some (vol.)              3
Only a little           14
None                     2
No opinion               *
Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates? As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, Bush and Cheney, the Republicans or Nader and Camejo, the independents? 
                        LVs RVs All
Kerry-Edwards           49% 48% 48%
Bush-Cheney             48  48  46
Nader-Camejo             1   1   2
Other (vol.)             *   *   *
None (vol.)              *   1   1
No opinion               2   2   3
(Asked of Nader voters) If Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in your state on Election Day, would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans? As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans? 
(Recalculated two-candidate race)

                        LVs RVs All
Kerry-Edwards           50% 48% 48%
Bush-Cheney             48  48  47
Other (vol.)             *   1   *
None (vol.)              *   1   2
No opinion               2   2   3
Which of the following applies to you -- you have already voted in this year's election, either by absentee ballot or early voting opportunities in your state; you plan to vote before Election Day, either by absentee ballot or early voting opportunities in your state; or you plan to vote on Election Day itself? 
                        LVs RVs All
Already voted            1%  1%  1%
Plan to vote ahead      14  14  13
Plan to vote Nov. 2     84  83  73
Do not plan to vote      *   1   1
Not registered           0   0  11
No opinion               1   1   1
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? 
Approve                 47%
Disapprove              49
No opinion               4
Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people, or if you have never heard of them. First, how about _____? 
George W. Bush:

Favorable               51%
Unfavorable             46
No opinion               3

John Kerry:

Favorable               52%
Unfavorable             44
Never heard of           *
No opinion               4

Dick Cheney:

Favorable               46%
Unfavorable             46
Never heard of           2
No opinion               6

John Edwards:

Favorable               48%
Unfavorable             37
Never heard of           6
No opinion               9
Now, turning for a moment to something else, how well are things going in the country today -- very well, fairly well, badly or very badly? 
Very well                8%
Fairly well             46
Badly                   33
Very badly              13
No opinion               *
Next, how would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair or poor? 
Excellent                4%
Good                    31
Fair                    40
Poor                    24
No opinion               1
Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse? 
Getting better          43%
Getting worse           48
Same                     7
No opinion               2
Thinking again about this year's presidential election, which best describes your view of the economy -- it will only get better if John Kerry is elected president, or it will only get better if George W. Bush is re-elected president, it will get better if either Kerry or Bush is elected, it will not get better if either Kerry or Bush is elected? 
Only if Kerry elected   35%
Only if Bush elected    29
If either is elected    20
Not if either           13
No opinion               3
If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president this year -- the economy, terrorism, the situation in Iraq or health care? 
                        LVs RVs All
Economy                 28% 28% 29%
Terrorism               28  28  26
Iraq                    25  23  22
Health care             16  18  21
No opinion               3   3   2
Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle each of the following issues. How about _____? 
The economy:

Kerry                   49%
Bush                    45
Same (vol.)              2
No opinion               4

The situation in Iraq:

Kerry                   44%
Bush                    51
Same (vol.)              1
No opinion               4

Terrorism:

Kerry                   39%
Bush                    56
Same (vol.)              2
No opinion               3

Health care:

Kerry                   56%
Bush                    37
Same (vol.)              1
No opinion               6

(Asked 484 adults in Form A) Abortion:

Kerry                   46%
Bush                    42
Same (vol.)              2
No opinion              10

(Asked 484 adults in Form A) Education:

Kerry                   50%
Bush                    43
Same (vol.)              2
No opinion               5

(Asked 484 adults in Form A) The environment:

Kerry                   60%
Bush                    31
Same (vol.)              2
No opinion               7

(Asked of 531 adults in Form B)
The federal budget deficit:

Kerry                   53%
Bush                    40
Same (vol.)              2
No opinion               5

(Asked of 484 adults in Form A) Medicare:

Kerry                   53%
Bush                    38
Same (vol.)              3
No opinion               6

(Asked of 531 adults in Form B) Social Security:

Kerry                   50%
Bush                    41
Same (vol.)              1
No opinion               8

(Asked of 531 adults in Form B) Stem-cell research:

Kerry                   53%
Bush                    33
Same (vol.)              *
No opinion              14

(Asked of 531 adults in Form B) Taxes:

Kerry                   44%
Bush                    51
Same (vol.)              1
No opinion               4
Next, thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to John Kerry or more to George W. Bush. How about _____? 
Cares about the needs of people like you:

Kerry                   49%
Bush                    42
Both (vol.)              3
Neither (vol.)           4
No opinion               2

Is a strong and decisive leader:

Kerry                   38%
Bush                    56
Both (vol.)              2
Neither (vol.)           2
No opinion               2

(Asked of 484 adults in Form A) Is honest and
trustworthy:

Kerry                   44%
Bush                    42
Both (vol.)              4
Neither (vol.)           7
No opinion               3

Shares your values:

Kerry                   45%
Bush                    47
Both (vol.)              2
Neither (vol.)           4
No opinion               2

Expresses himself more clearly:

Kerry                   57%
Bush                    38
Both (vol.)              2
Neither (vol.)           2
No opinion               1

Is intelligent:

Kerry                   48%
Bush                    36
Both (vol.)             13
Neither (vol.            2
No opinion               1

Has a clear plan for solving the country's
problems:

Kerry                   43%
Bush                    41
Both (vol.)              2
Neither (vol.)          12
No opinion               4

(Asked of 531 adults in Form B) Is believable:

Kerry                   40%
Bush                    50
Both (vol.)              2
Neither (vol.)           7
No opinion               1

Is more likely to keep his campaign promises:

Kerry                   42%
Bush                    48
Both (vol.)              2
Neither (vol.)           6
No opinion               2
If you could vote separately for vice president, would you be more likely to vote for John Edwards, the Democrat, or Dick Cheney, the Republican? 
                        LVs RVs All
Edwards                 52% 51% 51%
Cheney                  46  45  44
Neither                  1   2   2
Other                    0   *   *
No opinion               1   2   3
(Asked of 484 adults in Form A) Who do you think is currently winning the war against terrorism -- the U.S. and its allies, neither side or the terrorists? 
U.S. and allies         38%
Neither side            41
The terrorists          19
No opinion               2
(Asked of 531 adults in Form B) How satisfied are you with the way things are going for the U.S. in the war on terrorism -- very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not too satisfied or not at all satisfied? 
Very satisfied          16%
Somewhat satisfied      37
Not too satisfied       21
Not at all              26
No opinion               *
(Asked of 484 adults in Form A) Do you think the tax cuts which Congress passed and George W. Bush signed into law have mostly helped the U.S. economy, have had no effect or have mostly hurt the U.S. economy over the past three years? 
Mostly helped           39%
No effect               23
Mostly hurt             35
No opinion               3
(Asked of 531 adults in Form B) Do you think the tax cuts which Congress passed and George W. Bush signed into law have mostly helped your family, have had no effect or have mostly hurt your family over the past three years? 
Mostly helped           34%
No effect               48
Mostly hurt             16
No opinion               2
If John Kerry is elected president, do you think your federal income taxes would be increased, decreased or remain the same? 
Increased               48%
Decreased               13
Remain the same         34
No opinion               5
If George W. Bush is re-elected president, do you think your federal income taxes would be increased, decreased or remain the same? 
Increased               25%
Decreased               13
Remain the same         57
No opinion               5
As you may know, the federal government currently provides very limited funding for medical research that uses stem cells obtained from human embryos. Which would you prefer the government to do -- place no restrictions on government funding of stem-cell research, ease the current restrictions to allow more stem-cell research, keep the current restrictions in place, or should the government not fund stem-cell research at all? 
No restrictions         14%
Ease current ones       41
Keep restrictions       24
Not fund at all         14
No opinion               7
(Asked of 484 adults in Form A) Next, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First, all in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq or not? 
Worth it                44%
Not worth it            54
No opinion               2
(Asked of 531 adults in Form B) In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq or not? 
Made a mistake          46%
No mistake              53
No opinion               1
Do you think the Bush administration deliberately misled the American public about whether Iraq has weapons of mass destruction or not? 
Deliberately misled     47%
Did not                 51
No opinion               2
(Asked of 484 adults in Form A) Do you think big business does or does not have too much influence over the decisions made by the Bush administration? 
Yes, does               61%
No, does not            35
No opinion               4
(Asked of 531 adults in Form B) Do you think John Kerry would or would not rely too much on government programs to achieve his goals if he were elected president? 
Yes, would              52%
No, would not           36
No opinion              12
Now, thinking for a moment about the presidential debates, did you happen to watch or listen to the nationally televised presidential debate between George W. Bush and John Kerry this past Friday or not? Did you happen to see, hear, or read any news coverage of last Friday's presidential debate or not? 
Watched/Listened        65%
Saw news coverage       14
Saw nothing             21
(Asked of 484 adults in Form A) Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in last Friday's debate -- John Kerry or George W. Bush? 
Kerry                   45%
Bush                    30
Neither (vol.)           1
Both (vol.)             10
No opinion              14
(Asked of 531 adults in Form B) As you may know, George W. Bush and John Kerry will debate economic and domestic policy issues on Wednesday, October 13th. Who do you think is likely to do a better job in this presidential debate -- John Kerry or George W. Bush? 
Kerry                   54%
Bush                    36
No difference (vol.)     5
No opinion               5
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