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Friday, April 11, 2008

Senate Democrats entered the 2008 election with the narrowest of majorities but started the cycle with a far greater number of opportunities than they did in 2006 -- when the party managed to net six seats by ousting Republican incumbents. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer of New York, who is taking a second turn at the job as the party's top strategist, said the committee would savor the victory for about a week before diving into the 2008 cycle. "We're going to get started," Schumer said. "The first thing we're going to do is minimize retirements." In the ensuing months, he's succeeded in this task: Not a single Senate Democrat has announced his or her retirement.

SENATE RACES REPUBLICAN SEATS

Democrats are defending just 12 seats in 2008, compared with 18 seats (including that of Sen. James Jeffords, I-Vt.) in 2006. Sen. Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, who came out of retirement to run again in 2002, turns 84 in 2008, although he says he plans to seek another term. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, as the Democratic presidential nominee, carried his home state as well as Biden's and Lautenberg's in 2004.

Other veteran Democrats up for re-election wield committee gavels. They include Sens. Max Baucus of Montana, Tom Harkin of Iowa and Carl Levin of Michigan. Kerry carried Michigan in 2004, and lost Iowa by the thinnest of margins. But Montana is one of several states where Schumer and the DSCC might need to mount a strong defense: While Democrats have made inroads during the past two election cycles and Baucus is campaigning as the chairman of the Finance Committee, President Bush won the state in 2000 and 2004 with nearly 60 percent of the vote. However, the GOP has been unable to recruit a top-tier challenger, making Baucus a favorite to win a sixth term.

Among Schumer's other potential 2008 concerns: South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson, who is recovering from a brain hemorrhage, barely won a 2002 re-election bid, and Louisiana, where Sen. Mary Landrieu first won in 1996 with 50.2 percent of the vote and was re-elected six years later with 52 percent. Louisiana and South Dakota voted for Bush by landslide margins in 2004. But, with popular GOP Gov. Mike Rounds uninterested in a Senate run, Johnson has attracted less than overwhelming GOP opposition. Landrieu may be the Democrats' most vulnerable incumbents, thanks in part to the population shift brought about by catastrophic Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

The good news for Senate Democrats is that they have a chance to go on the offense in 23 seats that Republicans now hold, including a special election for the remainder of the term of Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss. Democratic-friendly states such as Maine, Minnesota and Oregon provide natural opportunities for Democrats, while good recruiting could put states that Bush won in 2004 into contention. And GOP retirements have put Democrats in a good position to pick up seats in Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.

Following is a state-by-state look at how the 2008 contests for Democratic-held seats are shaping up.

Arkansas. The name Pryor goes a long way in Arkansas politics. Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor, son of former Sen. David Pryor (who served as governor before coming to Capitol Hill) was elected to the state Legislature in 1990 at age 28 and as state attorney general in 1998. Four years later, he was the only Democrat to defeat a GOP Senate incumbent, knocking out former Sen. Tim Hutchinson for the seat previously held by his father. At the outset, Pryor's re-election prospects looked especially good in light of state Attorney General Mike Beebe's recent lopsided victory in the 2006 gubernatorial race over former GOP Rep. Asa Hutchinson, Tim Hutchinson's brother. Pryor has positioned himself well to fend off a Republican challenge by staking out center-right positions in the Senate. He was a member of the bipartisan "Gang of 14" senators that forged a compromise to head off a confrontation over judicial nominees. The leading Republican potential prospect, former Gov. Mike Huckabee, opted instead for a presidential run. And when his campaign ended, he still declined. For a time, state GOP leaders were suggesting that Pryor might run unopposed -- but healthcare executive Tom Formicola briefly considered a run. However, before the filing deadline he decided not to run and the Republicans failed to field a candidate.

Delaware. With Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden's second presidential bid over he can now focus on his re-election bid. Sussex County Republican Chairman Bill Lee said at least two Republicans might be courted. One is millionaire businesswoman Michele Rollins, who considered challenging Democratic Sen. Thomas Carper in 2006 but backed out. Lee said the other would be U.S. Attorney Colm Connolly, best known outside Delaware as the prosecutor in the sensational Thomas Capano murder trial of the late 1990s. While Connolly has turned down previous requests to run, Lee said he might be persuaded this time. So far, however, neither Rollins nor Connolly have bit - and the state GOP has been preoccupied with trying to find a top-tier candidate to run for the gubernatorial seat being vacated by Democrat Ruth Ann Minner. First elected in 1972, Biden won with close to 60 percent of the vote in his last two re-election bids, and he appears on his way to easily winning a seventh term - and a continued stint as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee if his party retains control.

Illinois. Although Illinois Republican Chairman Andy McKenna said the 2008 Senate race has "gained a lot of interest among likely candidates and voters," the state GOP has not fared well in recent statewide elections. Republicans lost control of the governor's mansion in 2002 and a Senate seat in 2004, and the party will face an uphill challenge to defeat two-term Democratic Sen. Richard Durbin, who serves as majority whip. Durbin has been a top party fundraiser and was re-elected with 60 percent in 2002. Republicans felt they had a formidable potential challenger in Rep. Mark Kirk, a moderate three-term House member. However, in early 2007, Kirk said he was not interested in running. Steven Sauerberg, a physician, announced in May he we would challenge Durbin, calling him divisive and too liberal. Sauerberg became the party's nominee in the Feb. 5 primary.

Iowa. When Democrats controlled the Senate in 2001-2002, Sen. Tom Harkin presided as Agriculture Committee chairman during the reauthorization of the farm bill. Harkin is again at the helm of the Agriculture panel in time for the reauthorization. Iowa Democrats enter the 2008 election cycle atop the strong tide of 2006, when they ousted 15-term GOP Rep. Jim Leach and took the open seat of GOP Rep. Jim Nussle, who lost his gubernatorial bid. They also clinched control of the state Legislature and successfully defended Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell. While Harkin has never won more than 55 percent in a Senate race, he appears to have escaped a top-tier challenger. At filing deadline, former state Rep. George Eichhorn, construction company executive Steve Rathje and Christopher Reed were the only Republican candidates. Most of the focus in terms of possible Harkin opponents had been on Republican Reps. Tom Latham and Steve King. Both decided to run for re-election.

Louisiana. The displacement of many New Orleans residents by Hurricane Katrina and the 2007 gubernatorial victory of GOP Rep. Bobby Jindal have many viewing Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu as perhaps the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent up this year. The 2004 election of Sen. David Vitter as the state's first popularly elected GOP senator showed Republicans could win the office -- and Democrats suffered two statewide election failures in 2006, along with this year's gubernatorial race. A spokesman said Landrieu, a moderate Democrat, has proven herself a "fighter" for the state on hurricane recovery and other issues. Landrieu in 2008 will be running under a new federal election process that scraps the state's unusual November open primary, in favor of more conventional primary and general election structure. State Treasurer John Kennedy, who became a Republican last year, announced he would file the necessary paperwork for a Senate run. Running as a Democrat, Kennedy came in third place in the 2004 Senate race.

Massachusetts. While Deval Patrick's gubernatorial victory in 2006 ended a decade and a half of Republican control of the statehouse, this remains the bluest of states, with an all-Democratic congressional delegation. The GOP gave Democratic Sen. John Kerry a free pass in 2002, and he will be a strong favorite in 2008 as well -- although Republicans argue his failed 2004 presidential bid and missteps since make him more vulnerable this time. Kerry ended speculation about his plans in early 2007, announcing he would seek re-election and not make another presidential bid. While such well-known names as former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card topped early GOP wish lists, the current favorite for the Republican nomination appears to be Jim Ogonowski, a retired Air Force officer who surprised many by running a competitive race against now-Rep. Niki Tsongas, D-Mass., last year. But Ogonowski's prospects in a statewide race appear far more limited. Also seeking the GOP nomination is former CIA and FBI officer Jeff Beatty, who lost a 2006 bid against Democratic Rep. William Delahunt by more than 2-1.

Michigan. Democratic Sen. Carl Levin put any speculation he would not run for re-election to rest. He has not had a close re-election race since 1984, and Michigan has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections. Both Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow and Gov. Jennifer Granholm were perceived as vulnerable in the run-up to the 2006 election season because of an ailing state economy hammered by auto industry problems. But Republicans failed to make either race competitive. A Michigan GOP spokeswoman, acknowledging the "extreme losses" the party endured statewide in the 2006 election cycle, said "we'd probably want to go with someone who has an established record." She also contended that Michigan's likely battleground status in the 2008 presidential election could help a GOP Senate candidate, who would benefit from prominent Republicans canvassing throughout the state. The GOP field initially appeared limited to Levin's 2002 opponent, former state Rep. Andrew Raczkowski and state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk. However, Raczkowski ended his bid in February 2008 because he was called back to active duty as a major in the Army Reserve.

Montana. With the chairmanship of the Finance Committee, Democratic Sen. Max Baucus appears well-positioned to win a sixth term in a state that has shown a willingness to elect Democrats to statewide positions in recent years. Baucus said days after the 2006 election that he would likely run for re-election. He also said his new perch would allow him to deliver for the state. In a sign of Democratic strength in the West, Montana voters elected a Democratic governor in 2004 and turned out GOP Sen. Conrad Burns in 2006. If Republicans mount a serious challenge to Baucus, they will likely have to disavow the positive portrayals of Baucus they made in ads and mailers in an attempt to shore up Burns. But, President Bush carried the state with 59 percent of the vote two years ago, and Baucus benefited in his 2002 re-election bid by facing a Republican opponent who dropped out in the middle of the race. His 1996 opponent, now-GOP Rep. Dennis Rehberg, held Baucus to 50 percent of the vote. But, Rehberg and former Gov. Marc Racicot are considered the only two Republicans with sufficient stature to make a credible run at Baucus. Rehberg took himself out of the running, while Racicot is now president of the American Insurance Association and would have to give up a lucrative salary. State Rep. Michael Lange entered the race in June 2007. Lange was removed as House majority leader after a profane attack directed at Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer at the end of the 2006 legislative session. Former state Senate President Bob Keenan, who challenged Burns for the nomination in 2006, was also wooed by the GOP. However, shortly before the March deadline, he filed to run for the state House.

New Jersey. Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg decided to retire from the Senate in 2000, at the age of 76 -- and quickly came to regret it. He returned to Capitol Hill two years later when the ethics-related troubles of his archrival, then-Democratic Sen. Robert Torricelli, created a ballot opening. This time, he shows no signs of letting go. Lautenberg, 84, kicked off his re-election campaign this year. He represents a one-time swing state that has turned a distinct shade of blue in recent years. It has not elected a Republican senator since 1972. In a surprise move, Democratic Rep. Robert Andrews announced shortly before the April filing deadline he would challenge Lautenberg. The six other Democratic members of the state's congressional delegation lined up behind Lautenberg. Real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook, a Republican, officially began her campaign in October. A moderate, Estabrook had the ability to self fund, but she dropped out unexpectedly due to a minor stroke she suffered in March. The remaining field includes Assemblyman Joseph Pennacchio and college professor Murray Sabrin, a libertarian Republican who has run statewide twice before, is also running. Businessman Andrew Unanue filed to run before the deadline. He later withdrew a few weeks later and former Rep. Dick Zimmer, R-N.J., replaced him. Recent polls indicate that Lautenberg has vulnerabilities due to his age, but both Andrews and the Republican nominee will face uphill battles.

Rhode Island. Rhode Island's status as one of the most solidly Democratic states in the nation likely all but guarantees the re-election of popular Democratic Sen. Jack Reed. Reed -- who spent six years in the House before being elected to the Senate in 1996 -- was re-elected to a second term with 78 percent in 2002. Two years later, the state voted nearly 60 percent for Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. John Kerry of neighboring Massachusetts. And, in 2006,, voters disenchanted with the GOP purged Sen. Lincoln Chafee from a seat that had been occupied by either Chafee or his late father, former GOP Sen. John Chafee, for three decades. The younger Chafee's defeat came despite distancing himself from the national party and Bush administration. Chafee quietly left the Republican Party last summer to become a political independent, and there have been rumblings that he might run for mayor of Providence. Chafee's defeat left Gov. Donald Carcieri as the state's leading Republican; Carcieri survived in his bid for a second term this year, barely defeating his Democratic challenger by 51-49 percent. A recent Brown University poll shows Reed to be the most popular politician in the state, and a serious opponent has yet to surface.

South Dakota. Before his hospitalization in late 2006, Sen. Tim Johnson's likely bid for a third term was seen as likely to become either a top-tier Senate race or a footnote of the 2008 election cycle. The difference was expected to be whether Republicans recruited GOP Gov. Mike Rounds to run against Johnson, who won his second term in 2002 by just 524 votes. That assessment was placed on hold for months as Johnson recovered from a brain hemorrhage. Johnson returned home in April 2007 following a two month hospital stay and two months in a private rehabilitation facility. Out of respect for Johnson little in the way of public campaigning had been done by Republicans during his recovery. In September 2007, Johnson returned to the Senate floor for the first time since his hospitalization. And, in October, he announced he would seek re-election. Colleagues helped him raise money while he was recovering. Rounds won re-election to a second term in 2006 with 62 percent of the vote, and afterward said he was not interested in another office. Republican hoped former Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby would join the race. However, he opted out shortly before the filing deadline. That leaves retired veterinarian Charles Gonyo, state Rep. Joel Dykstra and businessman Sam Kephart as the only candidates seeking the GOP nod.

West Virginia. West Virginians are not inclined to change their senators -- only three have represented the state since 1958. Democratic Sen. John (Jay) Rockefeller remains the state's junior senator despite serving since 1984, and he will seek to add to his tenure by running for re-election this year. The GOP's favorite candidate, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, is seeking re-election. Despite trending Republican in presidential races, the state is dominated by Democrats. The state Legislature has only a handful of Republicans, and only two Republicans hold statewide offices. Capito and the state's most prominent Republican, Secretary of State Betty Ireland, passed on challenging Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd in his successful bid for a ninth term in 2006. Rockefeller, whose standing in the state might be a notch below the iconic Byrd, is in some ways a more formidable candidate because of his relative youth -- he is 70, Byrd 90 -- and deep pockets. Rockefeller has not had to dip into his personal fortune in recent re-election races as he has fended off token opposition. When the January filing deadline rolled around, the only Republican to file was former state Sen. Jay Wolfe, who lost to Rockefeller by a 63-37 percent margin in 2002.

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