By Mark Wegner, CongressDaily
© National Journal Group Inc.
Last Updated: Monday, Nov. 6, 2006

(Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part package taking a look at this year's Senate contests).

The anemic popularity ratings of the Bush White House and the recent ethics-related problems of leading congressional Republicans have given Senate Democrats renewed hope of retaking control of the Senate this year. But the electoral arithmetic still leaves the Democrats facing an uphill battle to gain a majority. While party strategists see up to seven opportunities to pick up Republican-held seats in a body where Democrats are now outnumbered by 55-45, the Democrats will also have to worry about hanging on to a number of seats held by freshmen who squeaked through to victory six years earlier. At the top of the list of such GOP targets are Democratic-held seats in Michigan, Minnesota and Washington state -- all battlegrounds in the 2004 presidential election -- as well as a Democratic seat in heavily Republican Nebraska, although Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., has caught some breaks in that one. Minnesota is now an open seat thanks to the retirement of one-term Democratic Sen. Mark Dayton, and there are at least two other states -- Maryland and New Jersey -- where the departure of a Democratic incumbent has translated into a Republican pickup opportunity. What follows is a state-by-state look at the 18 seats the Democrats will be defending -- three more than the 15 Republican-held seats now up. (Click here for a detailed look at the seats now in GOP hands.)

SENATE RACES REPUBLICAN SEATS 2006 POLLING

California. Republicans have all but given up mounting a serious challenge to Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who continues to enjoy high approval ratings in the nation's largest state. The 2003 recall election victory of now-GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger notwithstanding, this onetime swing state has acquired a distinct tint of "blue" during the past decade: President Bush lost here in 2004 by a 54-44 percent margin. Businessman Bill Mundell - a wealthy education software executive who was heavily involved in Schwarzenegger's failed effort last year to achieve redistricting reform at the ballot box -- seriously contemplated a run against Feinstein. But, in November 2005, Mundell said he would not run -- citing the unwillingness of Republican donors in the state to underwrite a major push to oust the onetime San Francisco mayor. Former Republican state Sen. Richard Mountjoy, 74, announced he would run in January, and received the party's nomination in the June primary. Mountjoy co-wrote Proposition 187, the initiative that aimed to block benefits to illegal immigrants in 1994. California GOP Chairman Duf Sundheim a year ago practically conceded the race to Feinstein -- noting that the fact that she "has been able to gather as broad appeal as she has makes it difficult to beat her and also makes is difficult to find people to run against her."

Connecticut. The re-election of Sen. Joseph Lieberman should have been just a footnote in the 2006 election cycle, but his defeat in the Aug. 8 Democratic primary has become a major political development this cycle with national implications for candidates of both parties. Tapping into voter dissatisfaction over Lieberman's support for the Iraq war, wealthy former cable TV entrepreneur Ned Lamont defeated Lieberman in the primary by a 52-48 percent vote. In his concession speech, Lieberman vowed to continue his campaign and the next day filed sufficient signatures to qualify in late August to run as an independent in the general election. In Lamont, opponents of the Bush administration's Iraq policies recruited a credible challenger in Democratic primary -- in part thanks to efforts by former Gov. Lowell Weicker, a Republican-turned-independent whom Lieberman ousted from the Senate in 1988. It also did not hurt Lamont that he spent $4 million of his own money in the primary. Lieberman, who ran simultaneously in 2000 for re-election and as the Democrats' vice presidential nominee, makes the general election a three-way race that also includes Lamont and former GOP state Rep. Alan Schlesinger. Senate Minority Leader Reid and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer of New York endorsed Lamont a day after the primary and many other longtime Lieberman friends, such as fellow Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd, also found themselves in the difficult position of endorsing Lamont. Even though Democrats saw the defeat of a three-term incumbent senator, party leaders portrayed the result as a positive sign for Democratic candidates, because it shows voters are angry at Republicans and President Bush over the Iraq war. Republicans seized on Lieberman's defeat as evidence that liberals control the Democratic Party and that Democrats continue to be divided on foreign policy issues. The problem for the GOP this year is that they lack a candidate of visibility and stature in the Nutmeg State: In July, state GOP leaders called on Schlesinger to reconsider his candidacy after it came to light that he used an assumed name when he gambled during his tenure in the Legislature, and it was later revealed he was sued twice over gambling debts. But Schlesinger resisted such entreaties, notwithstanding recent polls showing him in single digits. The same polls show Lieberman drawing enough general election support to win as an independent -- although he says he would continue to caucus with the Democrats. But some Democrats are charging that Lieberman is the Bush administration's de facto candidate in the race, particularly after the White House pointedly declined to endorse Republican nominee Schlesinger, and several leading Republicans have lined up behind him. Several polls in the weeks leading up to the election show Lieberman with a double-digit lead.

Delaware. After now-Sen. Thomas Carper unseated venerated but aging GOP Sen. William Roth in 2000, Republicans here were left with few candidates who could match the popularity of the now-deceased Roth. Carper, a former House member and two-term governor, has established a centrist voting record and remains popular in the state. The only current Republican officeholder with the stature to mount a credible challenge to Carper is GOP Rep. Michael Castle. Castle received some pressure in 2002 to challenge Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden, but declined. Beyond the at-large House seat held by Castle, virtually every statewide elected office is in Democratic hands, leaving the GOP with a limited bench. An effort to recruit wealthy businesswoman Michele Rollins, the widow of former Lt. Gov. John Rollins, failed. Airline pilot Mike Protack, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2004, was the only Republican vying to take on Carper until Temple University law professor Jan Ting announced plans in February to run for the seat. State Republican Party Chairman Terry Strine touted Ting, a former assistant commissioner for the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, as a "formidable candidate." But despite winning the Republican endorsement at the state party convention, Ting narrowly defeated Protack by 42-40 percent in the September primary -- making his task of unseating Carper even more daunting.

Florida. Sen. Bill Nelson remains one of just four Democratic senators in Southern states, and the recent competitiveness of the Sunshine State initially made the freshman Democrat, who won by a 51-46 percent margin in 2000, an inviting target. However, Republicans have all but given up hope of adding the seat to their win column. To the dismay of many in her party, Republican Rep. Katherine Harris, who was Florida’s secretary of state during that state's controversial 2000 presidential recount, won the nomination in September. Republicans sought an alternative to Harris, as reports of campaign staff turnover and questions about her ties to a defense contractor who admitted making illegal campaign contributions raised questions about the viability of her candidacy. But no top-tier candidate was willing to enter the race. While Harris easily defeated her lesser-known primary opponents, polls show her badly trailing Nelson in the general election. Nelson also holds a large money advantage.

Hawaii. Few people expected Sen. Daniel Akaka, the state’s low-key but popular senator, to face tough battle in this Democratic-leaning state. However, Democratic Rep. Ed Case jolted the race to life in mid-January by announcing he would challenge Akaka in the Sept. 23 primary. Case, who is in his early 50s, argued that Hawaii voters have too much of their Senate representation locked up in Akaka and Democratic Sen. Daniel Inouye, who will both be 82 by Election Day. Case also questioned Akaka's effectiveness as a lawmaker. With the party establishment behind Akaka, Case found himself in an uphill battle. He went on to lose to Akaka 54-45 percent. While Hawaii Republicans have shown renewed vigor in the state -- Vice President Cheney campaigned here late in the 2004 presidential campaign -- they face an uphill battle against Akaka, who is now heavily favored in November. The GOP did initially find a credible candidate in July when 72-year-old retired Navy Capt. Jerry Coffee, who spent seven years as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam, entered the race. However, in early August, Coffee suspended his campaign after undergoing emergency heart bypass surgery. He later withdrew from the race but still won the nomination in the September primary. State Republicans selected 73-year-old state Rep. Cynthia Thielen to replace Coffee on the November ballot. Thielen billed herself as someone who can work with Democrats and independents and appealed for the support of those who backed Case in the primary.

Maryland. Five-term Sen. Paul Sarbanes in March 2005 became the second Democrat of the 2006 cycle to announce he would not seek re-election, setting up a vigorous primary scramble to replace him. Former Rep. Kweisi Mfume, who resigned as NAACP president in late 2004, and Rep. Benjamin Cardin were the two major candidates who faced off in the wide field. Republicans had few viable statewide candidates, but recruited a top-tier contender when Lt. Gov. Michael Steele formally launched his campaign for the seat last October. Steele, who is black, has statewide name recognition from being on the 2002 GOP ticket with Gov. Robert Ehrlich, who is running for re-election this year. Cardin, who had taken a pass at previous statewide campaigns, defeated his former colleague Mfume. Running a distant third in the contest was Joshua Rales, a wealthy businessman who captured just 5 percent despite spending millions of his own fortune in TV advertising. Cardin and Mfume had few policy differences. And while Cardin lacked the charisma of the former NAACP president, many saw him as more electable this fall against Steele. Cardin has sought to tie Steele to President Bush in this heavily Democratic state. Steele's campaign got a lift last week when a group of black Democratic leaders from Prince George's County crossed party lines and endorsed him. A Mason-Dixon poll released this week showed Steele and Cardin in a dead heat. Meanwhile, showing they view the race as being very much in play, Republicans added $940,000 to aid Steele's bid last week.

Massachusetts. Republicans fielded only token opposition to Sen. Edward Kennedy in 2000, and 2006 is no different. Kennedy -- who will be 74 in 2006, and who is in his fifth decade in the Senate -- is seeking an eighth term. (For all but a two-year interregnum in the early 1960s, the seat has been in the hands of a Kennedy for the past half-century -- since Sen. Kennedy's older brother, the future President Kennedy, first won it in 1952.) The state's most prominent Republican, Gov. Mitt Romney decided against pursuing re-election to a second term in favor of a possible presidential bid; Romney mounted an aggressive challenge to Kennedy in 1994, ultimately losing by a 58-41 percent margin. Republican Kevin Scott, a former selectman in the town of Wakefield, and Kenneth Chase, a businessman who lost to Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass., in 2004 by a nearly 3-1 margin, competed for the nomination. Chase narrowly defeated Scott in the September primary.

Michigan. Sen. Debbie Stabenow narrowly ousted then-GOP Sen. Spencer Abraham in 2000 in this battleground state, and Republicans were eager to mount a strong, well-financed challenge this year. But the GOP struggled to recruit a top-tier challenger with good name recognition. Rep. Candice Miller, who was encouraged to run by President Bush, said early in 2005 that she had decided not to pursue a bid. She was the first in a parade of potential candidates -- including Rep. Mike Rogers, Oakland County Prosecutor David Gorcyca, Detroit real estate manager Peter Cummings, Domino's Pizza executive David Brandon and Jane Abraham, the wife of Spencer Abraham -- to announce they would not run. That left the Rev. Keith Butler, a former Detroit city councilman, as the GOP frontrunner -- until Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard rejoined the race last October after dropping out for health reasons earlier in 2005. Bouchard said his health concerns had been addressed, and he was lobbied heavily by the National Republican Senatorial Committee -- who saw him as more electable than Butler, one of several black Republicans seeking statewide office this year. Bouchard bested Butler by a 3-to-2 margin in the Aug. 8 primary. But while recent polling shows Michigan voters in a bad mood due largely to economic concerns, those surveys consistently show Stabenow with a clear lead over Bouchard. Nonetheless, Republican strategists continue to insist they have a shot here.

Minnesota. Freshman Sen. Mark Dayton announced in February 2005 he would not seek a second term, citing his political vulnerability. GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy quickly declared his intentions to run for the open seat and dodged serious opposition for the party's nomination. Kennedy had been preparing for a Senate run, and his last two competitive House races have helped boost his name recognition in the state's largest media market: Minneapolis-St. Paul. Former GOP Sen. Rod Grams, whom Dayton defeated by a 49-43 percent margin in 2000, took himself out of the running, and Rep. Gil Gutknecht and state House Majority Leader Erik Paulsen also decided not to run for the GOP Senate nod. Even before his announcement, Republicans had targeted Dayton for defeat. A department store heir who spent about $12 million of his own money to win the seat in 2000, Dayton was the subject of negative attention for his decision to close his Senate office before Election Day 2004 out of unspecified fears of a terrorist attack. On the Democratic side, a race emerged between child advocate Patty Wetterling and Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar. In January, Wetterling withdrew -- choosing instead to seek the House seat being vacated by Kennedy -- and endorsed Klobuchar. After months of consideration, wealthy trial attorney Mike Ciresi, who lost to Dayton in the 2000 primary, decided in February being a senator was not for him. And Klobuchar was guaranteed the nomination when Minneapolis veteranarian Ford Bell -- running on an anti-Iraq war platform -- dropped out of the race in July. Once a Democratic bastion, Minnesota is increasingly a swing state -- Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry edged President Bush by 51-48 percent in 2004 -- and the Democrats have faced a battle to hold on to Dayton's Senate seat. But recent polls have given Klobuchar double digit leads over Kennedy, who -- unlike most Republican candidates this year -- is playing up his support for the Iraq war. Last week, a St. Cloud State University poll found Klobuchar with a 25-point lead -- her largest to date. However, a Mason-Dixon poll released last Wednesday put Klobuchar's lead at 10 points.

Nebraska. Freshman Sen. Ben Nelson dodged top-tier Republican opposition in 2006 when President Bush in December 2004 nominated Republican Gov. Mike Johanns to become Agriculture secretary, and when GOP Rep. Tom Osborne also took his name out of Senate contention, choosing instead to run for governor. One Democrat said Nelson had been bracing for a Johanns challenge, calling the potential match-up the state's "top Democrat running against the top Republican." Three Republican competed for the right to challenge Nelson: Nebraska Republican Party Chairman David Kramer, former state Attorney General Don Stenberg and multimillionaire Ameritrade executive Peter Ricketts. Ricketts, who pumped millions of his own money into the race and spent heavily on advertising, won the May primary. Ricketts has tried to make the case that control of the Senate could rest on Republicans picking up Nebraska and the tone of the contest has turned increasingly nasty. In August, Ricketts' personal contributions to his campaign triggered the so-called millionaires' amendment, allowing Nelson to collect up to $12,600 from individual donors. In winning his first term in 2000, Nelson squeaked by with a 51-49 percent win over Stenberg, while Bush was pulling 62 percent in this very "red" state. Nelson is favored to hang on to the seat this time despite Ricketts spending nearly $10 million of his own fortune.

New Jersey. The Garden State will have the chance to return an incumbent to the Senate this year -- just not the one it elected in 2000. Jon Corzine resigned his Senate seat in January to assume the governorship. Corzine selected House Democratic Caucus Chairman Robert Menendez to fill out the remaining year of his term. Menendez pledged he would work in the Senate to promote affordable health care and education, tax fairness and stronger homeland security. He stood by his opposition to the Iraq war. Menendez also noted his humble upbringing as the child of parents who had fled Cuba. Some observers expected Menendez would face a credible challenger in the Democratic primary. However, Democratic Reps. Robert Andrews and Frank Pallone, who had each campaigned aggressively for the Corzine appointment, ruled out challenges in January. Menendez faces opposition in the general election from GOP state Sen. Tom Kean, Jr. Republicans have vowed to make New Jersey a Senate battleground, despite a series of recent statewide election defeats. Kean is the son and namesake of the former New Jersey governor who headed the 9/11 Commission. Ethics has emerged as a top campaign issue as Kean has tried to portray Menendez as a product of a corrupt political machine. In September, it was reported that federal authorities were probing a rental deal between Menendez and a nonprofit agency. While Menendez has denied doing anything improper and disputed Republican statements that he is under federal investigation, Menendez's staff confirmed last Thursday a criminal defense lawyer is representing him. While viewed as what might be the Republicans' best chance for a pickup in 2006, polls released Monday show Menendez has opened a slight lead.

New Mexico. This has been a swing state in recent presidential elections -- President Bush lost it with 48 percent in 2000 and won it with 50 percent in 2004 -- and the GOP was hoping for an open-seat opportunity here in 2006. But, after speculation that he might retire, Sen. Jeff Bingaman opted to run for re-election to a fifth term, leaving Republicans with the challenge of recruiting a candidate who could make a credible race. Bingaman's seniority is a political asset, and Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson -- a possible 2008 presidential contender -- is be on the ballot seeking a second term this year. Urologist Allen McCulloch, son-in-law of an oilman who has had strained relations with Bingaman, won the Republican nomination. While McCulloch had not held elective office before, his competition was hardly overwhelming. It included Santa Fe City Council member David Pfeffer; Steven Gavi, assistant manager of a Wal-Mart store; and former state Sen. Tom Benavides, who -- as a Democrat -- lost by nearly 3-1 in 1990 to GOP Sen. Pete Domenici. Recent polls show Bingaman ahead of McCulloch by better than 3-1.

New York. There was speculation early on that freshman Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton could face a challenge from either of the state's GOP heavyweights: Gov. George Pataki or former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. Both, however, appeared to be more interested in focusing on their 2008 presidential aspirations. Nonetheless, national GOP strategists in the mid-2005 thought they had found a candidate who could give Clinton, herself a leading 2008 presidential contender, a tough time. The GOP's choice: Jeanine Pirro, the district attorney in suburban Westchester County, where Clinton and her husband, former President Clinton, reside. However, Pirro's campaign went steadily downhill in the wake of several gaffes. Finally, Pirro heeded the advice of county GOP chairmen from around the state and announced late last year she would withdraw from the Senate race to run for state attorney general. Meanwhile, former Pentagon official Kathleen Troia (KT) McFarland, a supporter of abortion rights, announced her bid for the seat in March. McFarland, a deputy assistant secretary of Defense for public affairs from 1982-85, had never run for public office. She faced off against conservative former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer, who won a majority of the votes at the state's party convention. Spencer also won the September primary and now faces the dubious privilege of trying to oust Clinton -- who leads by nearly 2-1 in most polls. In the Democratic primary, Clinton easily defeated Jonathan Tasini, a former labor organizer who tried to make an issue of Clinton's 2003 vote in favor of the Iraq war.

North Dakota. After ousting Senate Minority Leader Daschle in neighboring South Dakota in 2004, Senate Republicans and the White House took a close look at seriously challenging Sen. Kent Conrad, another Plains State Democrat in another "red" state. But North Dakota Democrats have downplayed comparisons to Daschle's campaign, and Republican hopes of ousting Conrad in 2006 received a severe blow when popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven announced a year ago that he would not enter the Senate race. Hoeven was courted to run by White House adviser Karl Rove and was considered party's strongest potential challenger; some early polling showed him leading Conrad. In the wake of Hoeven's decision, other leading Republicans hardly rushed to take on the incumbent -- a onetime state tax commissioner who was first elected to the Senate in 1986 by ousting a GOP incumbent, and who is viewed as a formidable campaigner. State Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem and Public Service Commission President Tony Clark are seeking re-election. State Insurance Commissioner Jim Poolman, U.S. Attorney Drew Wrigley, and State House Majority Leader Rick Berg all disavowed interest in taking on Conrad. And former GOP Gov. Ed Schafer, who has family ties to Conrad, has settled into a successful cellular phone business. Schafer resisted repeated entreaties to take on the state's other Democratic senator, Byron Dorgan, in 2004, and recently declared, "I don't have any interest in the legislative branch." And in February, former state GOP Chairman Kevin Cramer, Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy's opponent in 1996 and 1998, declined a bid to take on Conrad. Finally, farmer Dwight Grotberg announced he would run against Conrad about a month before the April filing deadline, and was unopposed in the June primary. Conrad's fortunes appear to have been bolstered by the strong re-election margins of Dorgan and Pomeroy in 2004 -- even as President Bush was winning the state by a landslide.

Vermont. Sen. James Jeffords, whose decision to leave the Republican Party and become a political independent put Democrats in the Senate majority from mid-2001 until the end of 2002, announced in April 2005 he would not seek a fourth term. Jeffords had said earlier that he would seek re-election. Notwithstanding that Jeffords -- despite Republican anger for aligning himself with the Democrats -- would have had little trouble winning re-election, he appears likely to be replaced by another independent who caucuses with the Democrats: Rep. Bernard Sanders, a self-styled socialist who was mayor of Burlington, the state's largest city, before winning the Vermont at-large House seat in 1990. Sanders immediately reminded voters of his long-time Senate ambitions, saying in a statement, "I have been clear about my intentions, which have not changed." National Democratic leaders signaled they were prepared to back Sanders. In January, the state Democratic Committee voted to endorse Sanders for Senate. Vermont, once a rock-ribbed Republican state, has become reliably Democratic in presidential elections. And although the independent-minded state now has three statewide elected GOP office holders, the two leading ones -- Gov. James Douglas and Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie -- opted not to take on Sanders. That left wealthy businessman Richard Tarrant as the leading GOP Senate contender. Tarrant won the Republican primary and Sanders won the Democratic primary, although he renounced the Democratic nomination in favor of running as an independent. Polling shows Sanders with a big lead over Tarrant, despite the latter spending $6 million of his personal fortune.

Washington. Chalk this one up as another case of the Republicans failing to recruit their top choice. After battling unsuccessfully for months to certify former GOP state Sen. Dino Rossi as the state's governor -- he ended up losing by a mere 129 votes out of nearly 2.75 million cast -- Republicans hoped to get Rossi to take on Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell. But after months of expressing reluctance about a Senate run, Rossi bowed out in mid-2005. The state GOP establishment has since coalesced around former Safeco Chief Executive Officer Mike McGavick, a onetime chief of staff to former Sen. Slade Gorton, R-Wash. -- whom Cantwell narrowly defeated in 2000. Other potential GOP candidates -- including television news anchor Susan Hutchison, former U.S. Attorney Diane Tebelius and former Rep. Rick White, who ousted Cantwell from a House seat in 1994 -- all opted out. While McGavick, a fiscal conservative and social moderate, brings an impressive resume to the contest, he is running in a blue state that Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry carried by 53-46 percent in 2004. And if Cantwell has been a rather low-key presence in the Senate during her first term, she has a wide lead over McGavick in cash on hand -- even though he has pumped in at least $2 million of his personal fortune -- and runs ahead in recent polls. Her high-profile in the fight against drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in late 2005 has played well back home. Like her Democratic colleague, Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, she encountered increasing opposition over her support of the war in Iraq. However, there was no anti-war candidate with the visibility and money to deny her renomination. Hong Tran, a Seattle lawyer and peace candidate, was only able to garner about 5 percent of the vote in the Sept. 20 primary. A Mason-Dixon poll released this week showed Cantwell with a comfortable lead.

West Virginia. An institution in both the Senate and his home state -- to which he has delivered prodigious federal largesse over the years -- Sen. Robert Byrd would become the chamber's only member in history to win nine terms if elected again this year. And it is looking like a pretty good bet that he will be sworn in for another term in January 2007. Republican hopes of defeating Byrd seemed to go down the proverbial coal chute last fall when three-term GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito announced she would not run against him. The growing success of Republicans in this once Democratic bastion -- which President Bush carried in both 2000 and 2004 -- motivated the National Republican Senatorial Committee to actively court Capito, the daughter of former Gov. Arch Moore. The NRSC even ran ads in 2005 in an effort to soften up Byrd and show its commitment to the race. After Capito's decision, the GOP had difficulty finding a candidate who could give Byrd -- a former Senate majority leader and Appropriations Committee chairman -- a competitive race. Republicans initially turned their attention toward getting West Virginia Secretary of State Betty Ireland into the race. However, Ireland announced in late October that she would not run. A month later, the party suffered another setback when former West Virginia University basketball coach Gale Catlett took his name out of the running. And in December, West Virginia Republican Party Chairman Robin Capehart said no thanks after state Republicans urged him to enter the race. But wealthy businessman John Raese, a Republican, joined the race in January. Raese ran a competitive race against now-Sen. John (Jay) Rockefeller, D-W.Va., more than two decades ago. But, despite spending more than $1 million of his own money this year, Raese does not appear to have succeeded in making the contest competitive this time around.

Wisconsin. As the heir to a retail chain fortune and owner of the Milwaukee Bucks, three-term Sen. Herb Kohl would be well-positioned for re-election even against a tough opponent. But if the competitiveness of the past two presidential elections in the Badger State gave Republicans reason to look for a strong challenger, they came up empty this year. GOP Rep. Paul Ryan frequently is mentioned as a statewide candidate, but holds a seat on the Ways and Means Committee and has indicated he would not spend much time contemplating a Senate run unless Kohl decided to retire. That had left the state GOP to fantasize about a matchup between Kohl and former HHS Secretary Thompson -- who was elected governor four times and remains a heavyweight in state politics. Polls showed him running neck-and-neck with Kohl. However, those hopes were dashed in June when Thompson announced he would not run. With Thompson out, the state GOP hoped that businessman Tim Michels, who lost 55-44 percent to Sen. Russell Feingold, D-Wis., in 2004, would decide to run again. However, Michels also declined to run. State Sen. Glenn Grothman considered a bid but he, too, decided not to run on the July 11 filing deadline. That left Kohl all but assured of another term against the only Republican to file: Robert Lorge, who garnered a mere 4 percent of the vote in the 2004 Senate primary won by Michels. Attention among state Republicans has focused on the gubernatorial race, where they feel that GOP Rep. Mark Green has a shot at ousting Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle.

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