By Mark Wegner, CongressDaily
© National Journal Group Inc.
Last Updated: Monday, Nov. 6, 2006

(Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part package taking a look at this year's Senate contests.)

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., in 2004 opted for the chairmanship of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee over a run for governor of his home state: A glance at the national political landscape for 2006 suggested that he accepted the more daunting challenge. Of the 15 Republican-held Senate seats up for grabs, the Democrats appeared to be competitive in less than half of them. And only two of these opportunities -- Pennsylvania and Rhode Island -- were in states that voted for the Democratic presidential nominee, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, in 2004. There was only one open Republican seat -- the Tennessee slot held by Majority Leader Frist, who is retiring, possibly to pursue a 2008 presidential bid. While the political winds have blown in Schumer's favor more than anyone would have imagined two years ago, netting the six seats needed for control remains a longshot. Following is a state-by-state look at the 2006 contests for Republican-held Senate seats are shaping up.

SENATE RACES DEMOCRATIC SEATS 2006 POLLING

Arizona. Sen. Jon Kyl had no major party opponent in 2000 and easily won re-election to a second term. Democrats vowed to mount much greater opposition to Kyl in 2006 and succeeded in recruiting former state Democratic Party Chairman Jim Pederson, a wealthy shopping center developer, into the race last September. Disclosure reports compiled by the nonpartisan Institute on Money in State Politics show Pederson donated nearly $5 million to the state party during the 2002 and 2004 election cycles. And this year, he has tossed about $8 million of his personal fortune into the race. Once solidly Republican, Arizona has become more competitive in recent presidential elections and voted narrowly in favor of then-President Clinton in 1996. Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, a popular figure in Arizona, is seeking re-election to a second term in 2006. However, Kyl noted President Bush’s 2004 victory margin in Arizona grew from 6 percentage points in 2000 to 11 points in 2004. "The reality is, Arizona remains a very Republican state," Kyl said, adding, "I've got a long list of friends from both parties." While polls show Kyl with a lead, the race has tightened, although it continues to lean toward a Kyl re-election. Nevertheless, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer of New York announced Thursday he is expanding his committee's target list to Arizona with a last-minute ad blitz designed to defeat Kyl. A Pederson spokesman said the DSCC commitment, an independent expenditure campaign, is further evidence of the wave he said is building in Arizona.

Indiana. When Sen. Richard Lugar wins re-election, the five-term Republican will make Hoosier history -- again. The chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, who will be 74 in November 2006, is the only Indiana senator in history elected to a fourth and fifth term. And there is no question he will win a sixth term: The Democrats are not even fielding an opponent. Former Democratic Rep. Tim Roemer, perhaps the party’s strongest prospective candidate, announced in early July 2005 he would not run, citing family considerations. Lugar has not been held to less than 55 percent since 1982 in a state with strong Republican leanings.

Maine. Much like her 2000 contest, Sen. Olympia Snowe appears headed for a landslide win. Despite the state's Democratic leanings, the popular moderate won six years ago with 70 percent of the vote against a credible challenger. This time, she will face off against a little-known Democrat. Organic farmer Jean Hay Bright narrowly defeated civil rights attorney Eric Mehnert in the June primary.

Mississippi. After months of speculation about his political future, Sen. Trent Lott quashed Democratic hopes of a competitive Senate race in the Magnolia State by announcing in January 2006 he would run for a fourth term. “I have chosen Mississippi and America once again. I am going to ask the people to re-elect me to another term,” he said. Lott, whose home in Pascagoula was destroyed by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, is playing a key role in the ongoing reconstruction efforts in the Gulf Region. In addition to Lott’s seniority and contacts, Mississippi Republican Chairman Jim Herring said Lott’s re-election bid allowed the state to avoid a competitive statewide battle this fall. “We don’t need that kind of political battle after that kind of disaster,” Herring said. Forced from his Senate leadership post in December 2002, Lott was immediately placed on the watch list of potential 2006 retirements and had considered retiring from Congress to make more money as a lobbyist. Lott’s decision to run again makes him the prohibitive favorite for re-election. State Rep. Erik Flemming won the June Democratic runoff and faces Lott in November. Lott’s decision to seek re-election also is fueling speculation – which Lott has not dampened – that he will seek a return to leadership next year by running to replace retiring Senate Majority Leader Frist or by seeking the second-ranking majority whip position.

Missouri. Democrats suffered a series of blows in the 2004 election in the Show Me State, losing the governorship and other key statewide offices. But they are mounting a serious challenge to GOP Sen. Jim Talent in 2006; in fact, this race is key to the Democrats’ slim hopes of recapturing a Senate majority. Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill announced in August 2005 she would run against Talent, criticizing him for supporting Republican-sponsored energy legislation and Social Security private accounts, and labeling him a "Washington insider." McCaskill in 2004 defeated a sitting Democratic governor for the party nomination and then lost the general election to now-Republican Gov. Matt Blunt by a slim 51-48 percent margin. Her candidacy followed a string of decisions by potential Democratic candidates not to get into the race, including both Rep. Russ Carnahan and state Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, the children of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan. Mel Carnahan posthumously won this seat in 2000, and Talent two years later ousted Carnahan's widow, appointed Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan, to serve out the remaining four years of the term. While Talent enjoys a wide advantage in cash on hand in his bid for a full six-year term, McCaskill has shown strength in fundraising -- and recent independent polls show the contest to be very close. An independent poll this week showed McCaskill and Talent in a dead heat. Talent has benefited from high-profile support in the waning days of the election. Senate Majority Leader Frist made a campaign stop last Tuesday and said it was important to hold Missouri in order to maintain control of the Senate. President Bush also campaigned for Talent in Southwest Missouri Friday in a late bid to fire up his base.

Montana. Three-term Sen. Conrad Burns had a close political call in 2000 when Democratic rancher Brian Schweitzer campaigned on health care and the economy and turned his underdog candidacy into a serious, late-breaking race -- which Burns won with just 51 percent. This time Burns is near the top of national Democratic target lists. Schweitzer's subsequent victory in the 2004 gubernatorial race, along with Democratic gains in the Montana Legislature, have emboldened the party to mount a strong challenge to Burns - who has faced negative news reports about past association with former lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Democrats faced a competitive primary, with state Senate President Jon Tester and state Auditor John Morrison as the frontrunners. Morrison's campaign was shaken in April by the revelation that he had an affair with a woman whose fiancé was later investigated by the auditor's office. Tester easily defeated Morrison in the June 7 primary. On the Republican side, state Sen. Bob Keenan entered the race, saying he feared Burns would be vulnerable in the general election. While Burns defeated Keenan by 3-1 in the primary, the incumbent's tendency to shoot from the hip has since landed him in even more political trouble. In July, as members of Virginia firefighting crew who had traveled 2,000 miles to help fight a Montana wildfire were awaiting a flight home at the Billings airport, they were confronted by Burns -- who told them they had done a "piss-poor job." And Burns - whose campaign is pressing for tighter immigration controls -- suffered another embarrassment in August, when Democrats caught him on tape referring to his house painter as "a nice little Guatemalan man" and suggesting that worker might be in the country illegally. The latest polling shows the race to be tight. Last week a Washington-based Republican media consultant and self-described friend of Abramoff has written to a Montana newspaper that Burns' staff would have "starved to death" without the free meals Abramoff provided them. A Burns spokesman dismissed the charges. Montana was once the most Democratic-leaning of the Rocky Mountain states. But it has trended Republican over the past decade, at least up until 2004's Democratic successes.

Nevada. Mounting a challenge to freshman Sen. John Ensign initially attracted little interest from Senate Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Reid, the state's senior senator. Ensign, a religiously devout conservative and the son of a former casino executive, matches the attributes of successful statewide candidates, who must appeal both to rural, conservative voters in the north and to Las Vegas gaming interests in the south. However, Democrats gave the race a second look in late 2005 when investment consultant Jack Carter, the eldest son of former President Carter, announced he was planning to run for the Democratic nomination. Carter has lived in Las Vegas only since 2003 and he rejected party efforts in 2004 to recruit him to run against GOP Rep. Jon Porter. Carter officially launched his campaign in February with his parents by his side. He faces an uphill battle against Ensign, who was elected to the House in the 1994 Republican landslide and came within 428 votes of ousting Reid in 1998. Reid has developed a friendship with his one-time rival and initially signaled little interest in fielding a strong challenger against him. But in early January, Reid disclosed that Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman had discussed the possibility of a Senate bid. However, Goodman announced in April that he would not run, saying he enjoyed his current job.

Ohio. Democrats strongly contested the 2004 presidential election in the Buckeye State, but have struggled in recent elections to field top-tier statewide candidates. And two-term Republican Sen. Mike DeWine, who was re-elected in 2000 with 60 percent, seemed a formidable opponent. However, Democratic Rep. Ted Strickland, a gubernatorial candidate, recently noted that the declining political fortunes of Ohio Republicans and the strong showing of Democrats in the state's heavily Republican 2nd District special election in August 2005 have given Democrats "enthusiasm and hopefulness" about their 2006 ticket. Republican Gov. Bob Taft, who is term-limited, in 2005 pleaded no contest to violations of state ethics law in conjunction with the failure to report a number of golf trips -- and his administration is mired in a scandal involving $300 million in investment losses for a state workers compensation fund. Democrats initially had difficulty recruiting candidates, but their fortunes changed in late 2005. Paul Hackett, an Iraq war veteran who narrowly lost the 2nd District special election to GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt, joined the Senate race in October. And Rep. Sherrod Brown, who announced in the summer he would seek re-election, reconsidered and announced plans to run, just days after Hackett joined the race. Democrats urged Hackett to withdraw and seek a rematch with Schmidt. Hackett, citing pressure from party leaders, dropped out of the race in February and passed on another House bid. Hackett endorsed Brown in July. Brown has a clear lead in recent polls, amid indicators that the GOP has privately conceded defeat here.

Pennsylvania. After nominating lackluster challengers in 2000 and 2004, Keystone State Democrats cleared the field early for state Treasurer Robert Casey's run against Republican Sen. Rick Santorum. Casey, the namesake son of a late Democratic governor, announced in early 2005 he would challenge the two-term Santorum, setting the field for what is expected to be one of the marquee Senate contests in 2006. "The current Republican leadership in Washington views the results of the November election as a mandate to increase the speed and severity of their push to undermine policies that protect middle-income working families," Casey said in his announcement, criticizing Republicans over job loss, trade policy, health care and Social Security reform. Casey, an abortion opponent, avoided a divisive primary with former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer, who supports abortion rights, after Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell persuaded Hafer not to run. Casey's campaign received a scare earlier this year; NARAL Pro-Choice America President Kate Michelman said she was considering an independent bid. But a few weeks later Michelman announced she would not run. Although Santorum consistently trailed in independent polls taken over the last year, had enjoyed a wide lead in fundraising. However, in the latest FEC report, Casey moved slightly ahead in cash on hand. Santorum is fighting for his political life -- and has responded by seeking to soften his hard-line conservative image on social issues, while emphasizing economic issues such as illegal immigration. Casey's lead narrowed in the summer, but it grew again in September. In a blow to Santorum, a state judge recently ruled Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli off the ballot. While Romanelli was polling at single digits, observers believed he could draw enough votes away from Casey to tip the balance in a tight race. Several polls released over the last week have shown Casey with a double-digit lead.

Rhode Island. Sen. Lincoln Chafee figured to face serious opposition from Republicans and Democrats alike in his quest for second full term. In the state's September primary -- just two months before the general election -- Chafee fended off a stiff challenge from Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey. Laffey, a former investment banker, portrayed himself as a populist and emphasized his rise from humble blue collar roots. Laffey courted backing from conservatives, who were discontented with Chafee's moderate views. Chafee, who was appointed in 1999 to the seat held by his late father GOP Sen. John Chafee, raised the possibility on Election Day 2004 of switching parties. Chafee has remained a Republican and claims the backing of the White House, GOP Senate leaders and local party support. Many viewed Chafee as the only Republican who could hold onto the seat. The Democratic contest originally featured former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse and state Secretary of State Matt Brown. Democratic Reps. Jim Langevin and Patrick Kennedy announced last year they would not run for Senate and endorsed Whitehouse, viewed as the more seasoned campaigner. Brown withdrew in April, saying he lacked the resources needed, and backed Whitehouse. Democrats averted what happened in the 2000 race, when a late and divisive primary weakened the ultimate Democratic nominee, former Rep. Robert Weygand, in his bid against Chafee. Late polling shows a close race between Chafee and Whitehouse going into the general election. Whitehouse has sought to tie Chafee to the Bush administration despite the incumbent's sometimes independent stands, while Chafee -- with uncustomary aggressiveness -- has suggested that Whitehouse failed to take sufficient action to fight corruption while attorney general. Meanwhile, three-time Democratic gubernatorial nominee Myrth York endorsed Chafee Thursday, citing his stances on issues such as the Iraq war, the environment and civil rights.

Tennessee. A stepping stone for politicians with national aspirations -- former Sens. Estes Kefauver, Howard Baker and Al Gore, to wit -- the latest opportunity to become a Tennessee senator began attracting interest as soon as it became clear Senate Majority Leader Frist, a likely 2008 presidential contender, would not seek a third term. The opening created a three-way Republican primary among Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker and former Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary. The race became increasingly divisive with Bryant and Hilleary billing themselves as the true conservatives and questioning Corker's conservative credentials. Corker easily won the Aug. 3 primary and now faces the challenge of uniting Tennessee Republicans for the general election. Among Democrats, Rep. Harold Ford Jr., who traveled the state extensively to prepare for a Senate bid long before he declared his candidacy, handily won the nomination while facing no major opposition. Ford, who is black, has compiled a moderate record and demonstrated an ability to appeal to votes across racial lines -- the latter of which will be key in a state whose population is less than 17 percent black. Democrats have touted their chances in the Republican-leaning state and independent polling has shown the race is close. But Republicans have targeted Ford in a series of ads. Meanwhile, Corker gave his campaign a personal loan of $2 million last week, triggering the "Millionaire's Amendment." Late polling in Tennessee has painted a contrasting picture. A Mason-Dixon poll released this week showed Corker leading Ford by 12 points. However, a USA Today/Gallup poll showed a closer race, with Corker at 49 percent and Ford at 46 percent, within the poll's 4-point error margin. This is another race that is tied to Democratic hopes of a Senate takeover.

Texas. Two-term Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison quashed a great deal of interest in her Senate seat when she announced last year she would seek re-election and not challenge Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary. A number of prominent Republicans, including Rep. Henry Bonilla, had openly expressed interest in succeeding Hutchison. Democrats had a number of potential candidates, including former House incumbents ousted in 2004 because of redistricting, who were expected to take a look at running for Senate. However, the prospect of challenging a successful incumbent senator in Republican-dominated Texas has suppressed serious Democratic opposition. Hutchison is heavily favored against attorney Barbara Ann Radnofsky in the general election. Radnofsky, a political newcomer, defeated perennial candidate Gene Kelly in the April 11 Democratic primary runoff.

Utah. State party members say "Utah Democrat" is synonymous with "eternal optimist," but even they see virtually no chance of defeating five-term Sen. Orrin Hatch in 2006. "Both of our senators are very entrenched. It would be very difficult for us to defeat one of them, especially Orrin," a state Democratic Party spokesman said. Hatch is seeking a sixth term, notwithstanding that term limits forced him out as chairman of the Judiciary Committee at the end of 2004. If re-elected, Hatch could be in a position to take over the chairmanship of the Senate Finance Committee in 2008. The Democrat in the race is Pete Ashdown, an Internet entrepreneur. Meanwhile, GOP state Rep. Steve Urquhart, after initially saying he would mount an intraparty challenge to Hatch, withdrew late last year.

Virginia. Sen. George Allen - a former House member and governor - first won this seat in 2000 by narrowly ousting then-Democratic Sen. Charles Robb, another former governor. But 2006 was initially looking like a cakewalk for Allen - to say nothing of a warmup for an Allen presidential bid in 2008 - after another former Democratic governor, Mark Warner, decided in August 2005 not to seek the Senate seat. How things have changed a year later: Allen now faces a competitive race against Republican-turned-Democrat James Webb, a former Navy secretary in the Reagan administration. And while he remains favored to pull it out, a close call could affect his standing in the 2008 presidential derby, where he was an early leader. Webb was seen by Democratic strategists as the strongest possible challenger, and endorsements by several key party leaders helped him to a narrow win in the June primary over Harris Miller, a Warner ally and former head of the Arlington, Va.-based Information Technology Association of America. Amid questions raised about Webb's Democratic credentials and Allen's major edge in fundraising, Webb began the campaign seeking to tap into public dissent over the Iraq war by calling for a pullout of U.S. troops to begin. Then a self-inflicted political wound by Allen in mid-August placed this contest squarely in the sights of Democratic strategists. At a rally of supporters in rural Virginia, Allen singled out a Webb volunteer who was tracking him and videotaping his campaign events. "Let's give a welcome to Macaca here. Welcome to America and the real world of Virginia," Allen said over laughter to N.R. Sidarth, a 20-year old of Indian ancestry who was born in Virginia. Macaca, it turns out, is a genus of monkeys - and regarded as a racial slur in some parts of the world. Allen subsequently apologized, but not until he was learned first-hand how the Internet has changed modern politics: Sidarth had recorded Allen, and the video was posted by the Webb campaign on YouTube.com, creating an instant political firestorm. That was followed by another controversy in which Allen initially reacted angrily to questions about whether his mother was Jewish, only to later acknowledge his Jewish background. And then there were published reports that he had used a racial epithet to refer to blacks while an undergraduate at the University of Virginia. The accumulated damage to Allen from those episodes resulted in a late poll showing the contest was a dead heat, although other recent polling shows Allen slightly in the lead. The contest remains tight, according to polls released this week.

Wyoming. Sen. Craig Thomas in May officially kicked off his bid for a third term, and he is all but certain to get it. Thomas will be 73 in November. Democrats faced the difficulty of recruiting a top-tier challenger in this Republican state. Their strongest potential candidate, Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal, is seeking re-election. In January, retired military weapons engineer Dale Groutage said he would seek the Democratic nomination. Earlier this year, Thomas was on the list of possible candidates for the Interior secretary, but the job went to retiring Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne.

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