Thirty-six percent of likely voters say they consider themselves Democrats, according to the poll, compared to just 27 percent who are Republicans. That is not statistically different from the 6-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in Quinnipiac's pre-convention poll, but it is larger that the 3-point Democratic edge measured in 2008 by exit pollsters.
One of the reasons why more Democrats are making it through Quinnipiac's likely-voter screen is because the enthusiasm gap between the parties has closed in the Sunshine State, according to the poll. Forty-eight percent of Democrats now say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year, compared to 52 percent of Republicans who have more enthusiasm. Before the conventions, only 36 percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic, while 53 percent of Republicans said they were.
Ohio
Obama enjoys a commanding lead in Ohio, 53 percent to 43 percent, with 4 percent undecided or choosing another candidate. That is an increase from his 6-point lead in the previous poll, conducted just before the conventions.
Obama's lead in the new poll is only slightly larger than in other publicly available surveys. A Washington Post poll released Monday showed the president with an 8-point advantage in the Buckeye State. Romney aides told reporters on the campaign plane Tuesday that its surveys showed a much closer race.
Romney actually leads Obama by 8 points among male voters, 52 percent to 44 percent, but Obama racks up an overwhelming, 25-point lead among female voters, 60 percent to 35 percent.
Romney continues to suffer from a likability gap in the state. Prior to the conventions, just 39 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of him. That percentage ticked up to 41 percent in the new poll, but the percentage who view him unfavorably also increased, from 45 percent last month to 49 percent now.
Meanwhile, 54 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, and half approve of the way he is handling his job as president. Voters prefer Obama when it comes to handling the economy, 51 percent to 45 percent, a jump from the pre-convention poll, when the two were tied on this issue.
Democrats enjoy a 9-point edge over Republicans when it comes to party identification, roughly equal to the previous poll, which showed Democrats leading on this measure by 8 points. This is also in line with the Post poll, in which Democrats were ahead by 7 points.
Pennsylvania
The sponsors skipped Pennsylvania in the pre-convention round of polling (subbing in Wisconsin), but the latest poll shows the race is virtually unchanged since the last time Quinnipiac surveyed the state, in late July. Obama now leads Romney 54 percent to 42 percent -- equal to his lead at the end of July, 53 percent to 42 percent.
The Quinnipiac poll is in line with a Muhlenberg College poll conducted for the Morning Call of Allentown, Pa., and a bipartisan poll conducted for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Polls conducted by the Harrisburg-based Republican pollster Susquehanna Polling & Research for the state Republican Party and the conservative Pittsburgh Tribune-Review have shown a closer race.
The two candidates run even among men -- 49 percent for Romney, 48 percent for Obama -- but female voters favor Obama by a wide margin, 58 percent to 37 percent. That includes an 11-point edge among white women, 53 percent to 42 percent.
Republicans do have an enthusiasm advantage in the Keystone State, however. Forty-five percent of voters identifying as Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared to only 28 percent of Democrats who say they are more enthusiastic.
Still, 39 percent of likely voters describe themselves as Democrats, roughly equal to the 38 percent who did in late July. The percentage of respondents identifying as Republicans dropped, however, from 32 percent to July to 28 percent now.
Methodology
The polls were conducted Sept. 18-24. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,196 likely voters in Florida, 1,162 in Ohio and 1,180 in Pennsylvania. The Florida poll carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.8 percentage points, while the Ohio and Pennsylvania polls have margins of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points.
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