GOP Rep. John Fleming's 4th District and GOP Rep. Rodney Alexander's 5th District, both anchored by cities in northern Louisiana, would need to expand as well, and they would have nowhere to go but further south into Acadiana. One Louisiana insider explained that even fewer Cajun Country voters will be able to decipher their congressman's accent after redistricting. But whatever lines Republicans decide to draw, they will ensure that no Democrat has a chance at a seat other than the 2nd District. Under the most likely scenario we've mapped out below, every one of the five non-New Orleans districts gets even more Republican than it is now:
Louisiana Scenario No. 1: 3rd District Eliminated
(Dave Bradlee's Redistricting App)
To no one's surprise, Landry has expressed his displeasure with a map that eliminates his district, and is pushing (along with several coastal parishes) for a coastal-only district stretching from Cameron Parish in the west to St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes at "the toe of the boot" in the east. It's unclear how many legislators in Baton Rouge share this view, but Acadiana legislators who are uneasy about the prospect of being thrown into the northern Louisiana districts might be sympathetic to Landry.
A coastal district would merge the 3rd and 7th districts more evenly and threaten the Lafayette-based Boustany by shifting Calcasieu Parish (Lake Charles) into a district stretching almost the entire length of the Texas border to Shreveport. Landry might have an advantage in a primary against Boustany under the lines below, though this map is less likely:
Louisiana Scenario No. 2: Merged 3rd & 7th Districts
(Dave Bradlee’s Redistricting App)
Another alternative Louisiana insiders mention involves merging Fleming (who some regard as a bit of a political loner) and Alexander into one "I-20" district stretching across northern Louisiana from Shreveport to Monroe. However, this district would be slightly more favorable to Democrats than either the current 4th or 5th districts and both Fleming and Alexander would fight its creation, so this scenario is less likely.
Some residents argue this merge would make more geographic sense, but it might force other districts to stretch awkwardly into northern Louisiana. For example, Boustany's district would have to take on more rural parishes along the Sabine River, Landry's predominantly coastal district might need to stretch to Alexandria in central Louisiana, and Cassidy's Baton Rouge-dominated district might need to stretch into poor, rural parishes along the Mississippi River.
Louisiana Scenario No. 3: Merged 4th & 5th Districts
(Dave Bradlee’s Redistricting App)
Get the latest news and analysis delivered to your inbox. Sign up for National Journal's morning alert, Wake-Up Call, and afternoon newsletter, The Edge. Subscribe here.
Leave A Comment