Even when they vote early, Democrats vote late. And that’s giving the party some hope a week before Election Day.
The latest early voting returns show Democrats bouncing back from early deficits in some key battleground states, a trend that one party leader touted today.
“Despite national momentum being on the Republican side for months, we are not seeing anything resembling a Republican surge,” wrote Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, in a memo released this morning.
Menendez cited Democratic leads in early voting in California, Nevada, and West Virginia to bolster his argument that party faithful are “engaged, enthused -- and most importantly -- voting.”
Republicans scoffed at the significance of the figures, noting that registration in all three states tilts heavily in Democrats' favor.
“It’s funny he’s trying to pass off as news the fact that more Democrats are voting in Democratic states,” said Brian Walsh, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Still, a nonpartisan source agreed that the latest figures on early voting represent an improved picture for Democrats from last week.
“Compared to what first came out, Democrats have to be feeling better with the numbers now,” said Michael McDonald, a government and politics professor at George Mason University. “But a lot can still change.”
Registered Democrats lead early voting turnout in Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina, and West Virginia. And the Atlas Project, a Democratic consulting group, said Friday that in some states, voters are even slightly more Democratic than in 2006, when the party took back Congress.
After a slow start in North Carolina, Democrats have overtaken an early Republican surge. Today’s early voting returns show a 44 percent to 38 percent edge in early voting for registered Democrats. That’s an improvement over last week, when they were lagging behind the GOP, but far short of the 51 percent Democratic turnout in 2008.
Getting voters to the polls early was a key to President Obama’s 2008 squeaker of a victory in North Carolina. Andrew Taylor, a political science professor at North Carolina State University, said that while Republican John McCain won in the balloting on Election Day, Obama won the early vote count.
Parties in states with early voting are making a big push to get voters to the polls. “Today is Election Day,” proclaimed one Florida e-mail to Democratic supporters.
But the Sunshine State remains dark for Democrats. Democrats outnumber Republicans, 4.6 million to 4 million, in Florida, but registered Republicans have outvoted registered Democrats by nearly 20 percentage points so far.
Republican turnout also remains high in Colorado, where freshman Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is fighting for reelection. And Republicans across the country are pointing to numbers that indicate their turnout rate is higher than their party’s share of registered voters.
The difficulty of drawing conclusions is highlighted in Colorado. Although Democrats lag in early voting numbers, they were behind by about as much in 2008 voting -- but Obama ended up winning the state.
In the battleground state of Nevada, where more than 160,000 people have voted, turnout remains close, with Republicans and Democrats voting in almost the exact same numbers statewide. Democrats retain a lead in Democratic-leaning Clark County.
In Pennsylvania, where multiple congressional races remain competitive, the GOP is outpacing Democrats in the absentee ballot returns, 50 percent to 42 percent, according to the latest figures from elections officials.
The swing state of Ohio remains split. The parties remain very close in Maine and Louisiana, as well.
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