The scene was the same for Ned Lamont, who launched his campaign for Connecticut governor Tuesday at the Old State House in Hartford. But four years after Lamont kicked off his juggernaut challenge to Sen. Joe Lieberman from the same site, it was hard to ignore how much the political world has changed.
Lamont doesn't have to look far to appreciate that shifting landscape.
How many Ned Lamonts are out there this year?
Connecticut's senior senator, Christopher Dodd (D), was re-elected in 2004 by a 2-1 margin; in 2006, his sky-high approval ratings convinced him to run for president. Today, Dodd is political roadkill. Just a few miles north, in Massachusetts, voters elected an African-American Democrat in 2006 to replace Gov. Mitt Romney (R). Today, Gov. Deval Patrick is in big trouble, and the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's seat belongs to a Republican. In nearby Rhode Island, Kennedy's son Patrick is retiring, saying he has lost his passion for politics.
And then there's Indiana, where House Democrats made huge gains in 2006 and Barack Obama made history two years later. One day before Lamont's campaign kickoff, however, Sen. Evan Bayh called it quits, too, jeopardizing his party's House gains (if those Democrats run for his seat) and, possibly, Obama's prospects there in 2012. Bayh ruled out a 2012 challenge to Obama -- as a Democrat or an independent. But speculation about his plans will linger.
The real reason Democrats are struggling this year was on display Tuesday in Hartford, where Lamont made a 17-minute speech that focused almost entirely on jobs, taxes and the economy. He talked about U-Conn. basketball, New Haven's Science Park and the "beautiful" Naugatuck Valley. But in a speech of more than 1,650 words, one word never crossed Lamont's lips: "Iraq."
His omission made practical sense, of course, since governors have little influence over foreign policy and Iraq has faded as a priority among voters. But it also served as a fresh reminder that Democrats, who regained power in 2006 on the strength of an unpopular war and GOP corruption, now lack a message that can similarly motivate their base or appeal to independents. In 2010, as in every midterm that follows the election of a new president, the campaign is a referendum on that president -- not the president who preceded him or the party out of power.
One other important change has taken place since Lamont last ventured into campaign politics. In 2006, the antiwar activist embodied the growing strength of his party's liberal wing, sending shivers up the spines of moderates like Sens. Ben Nelson (Neb.), Mary Landrieu (La.) and Blanche Lincoln (Ark.).
In 2010, the Tea Party movement has given new life to conservatives, who are challenging moderate Republicans in key states like Florida, Utah and Arizona. In Arizona, one day before Lamont kicked off his gubernatorial campaign, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) formally launched a long-shot bid to deny another veteran senator, John McCain (R), a fourth term.
Which raises a couple key questions. How many Ned Lamonts are out there this year? And -- unlike Lamont in 2006 -- can they go all the way?
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