Meet Sens. Evan Bayh and Russell Feingold, the final front in the Democratic battle to hold the Senate this year.
We haven't heard much about Bayh and Feingold during a campaign cycle dominated by vulnerable Senate Democrats like Harry Reid of Nevada, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut. As the national landscape shifts sharply towards the GOP, however, that could change. Indeed, the fate of those two Midwestern mavericks this fall could determine whether their party's majority survives a brutal midterm election or is forced back into the wilderness.
Democrats confidently claim that Bayh and Feingold are safe while GOP incumbents in North Carolina and Louisiana are not.
My reasoning goes like this: Following GOP Sen.-elect Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts, Republicans need to pick up 10 seats to take back the Senate. If the developing "wave" carries Republicans through November, they could hold all six of their open seats and pick up eight previously targeted Democratic seats -- in Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Illinois, California, Delaware and North Dakota. That would leave them two seats short of a majority, meaning they'd need to win races brewing quietly in the swing states of Wisconsin and Indiana.
For all the talk of a comeback, Republicans can't take the Senate if they fall short in those two races. For now, they concede, that outlook remains bleak.
The new reality hasn't been lost on Bayh, however, who raised eyebrows last weekend when he tried to hitch himself to Brown's crowded bandwagon. During an interview on Bloomberg TV, Bayh said Brown aspired during the Massachusetts campaign to be an "independent voice" in the Senate, "a lot like Evan Bayh." On Tuesday, Bayh rejected the idea of using reconciliation to pass health care reform, calling it an "ill-advised" plan; instead, he urged a return to bipartisan outreach.
Bayh dodged a bullet Tuesday when House GOP Conference Chair Mike Pence opted to forgo a Senate bid. While Pence would have posed a serious threat, a recent poll shows two lesser-known Republicans (former Rep. John Hostettler and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman) hold the two-term Democrat's support to 45 percent or under. (Bayh led Hostettler by just 3 points).
Still, Senate Republicans privately acknowledge that Pence represented their only real shot at Bayh. Without him in the race, knocking off Bayh, and taking back the Senate, becomes a much more complicated task involving even tougher races in Washington, New York or Connecticut. "I don't know that we have a Plan B in Indiana," one GOP strategist said. "A lot would have to break our way. Bayh's sitting on a ton of money, and Hostettler has never been much of a fundraiser."
Last March, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair John Cornyn told CongressDaily (subscription) that Bayh looks "pretty good" in 2010 and suggested the NRSC will not spend much money on the race. "We have a sort of priority list," Cornyn said. "He's down on that" list.
Feingold has made his share of headlines recently, most notably when he announced he'd oppose Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's bid for a second term. Feingold's populist stance likely scored him points in Wisconsin, where voters' anger at the Fed's response to the banking crisis has fueled GOP hopes of unseating the Democrat.
The Wisconsin wild card these days is former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R), who says he still may challenge Feingold. "I'm not saying no," Thompson told Politico last week, following Brown's win in Massachusetts. (Of course, this is the same guy who said this to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last fall: "I'm looking at governor, I'm looking at senator and I'm looking at mayor of Elroy," his hometown of 1,600 people, north of Madison).
Feingold's predicament is not unlike the one Bayh faced before Pence bowed out. While Thompson poses the strongest threat to Feingold, two lesser-known Republicans in the race (developer Terrence Wall and businessman Dave Westlake) hold the three-term Democrat's support under 50 percent, according to a late November poll. Unlike Bayh, however, who has won both of his Senate races with at least 62 percent, Feingold has never exceeded 55 percent.
Still, GOP strategists acknowledge that Feingold remains a heavy favorite -- with or without Thompson in the race.
Democrats, for their part, put on a brave public face, confidently claiming that Bayh and Feingold are safe while GOP incumbents in North Carolina and Louisiana are not. "We face a strong headwind, but... we feel like there are still opportunities to make some gains. No question," said Eric Schultz, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
However, as NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh noted, the trends are troubling for Democrats. "When you look at where we were 10 months ago," he said, "I don't think anyone could have imagined where we are today."
In other words, stay tuned. This show has just begun.
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