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POLITISCOPE
Comeback Kids?
Palin, Bunning, Paterson And Others Have All Been Down; Who Among Them Will Get Back Up?
America loves a good comeback story, and so do I. We're watching several of them take shape these days, from Anchorage to Albany, and their outcomes could have a major impact on the political landscape in 2010 and beyond.
But, alas, not everyone comes all the way back. While some embattled pols are making surprisingly impressive strides, others are floundering amid waves of harsh critics, negative press coverage and dwindling options. Here's a look at some folks who have stared into the abyss and now are trying to claw their way back on top. (The list is ranked from least to most likely to succeed).
• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R): After exit polls showed she was one of the biggest reasons for John McCain's presidential loss last fall, Palin returned to Alaska to complete her first term as governor, build a record and broaden her base. Over the past eight months, however, she has failed to garner one single week of positive press coverage. Whether she's waging a public media spat with her daughter's ex-fiance or battling fellow Republicans in Anchorage, Palin has failed to expand that base and offered little reason for neutral observers to believe she's ready for prime time. Even her fundraising power among many Republicans is sometimes presented as a sign that the party is stuck in a losing mindset. While the media's anti-Palin bias may contribute to her challenge, she shows no independent signs of establishing herself as a force in national politics.
• Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.): Through a series of missteps, both personal and political, Bunning has managed to alienate fellow Senate Republicans -- most notably Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a fellow Kentuckian, and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair John Cornyn of Texas, who now are actively encouraging other Republicans to run. In one of the more bizarre spectacles in politics these days, Bunning uses weekly teleconferences with local reporters to launch verbal assaults at McConnell and Cornyn, as well as some of the reporters. Bunning still may retire, which would likely be a blessing to all involved -- except, of course, for Democrats.
• New York Gov. David Paterson (D): Ever since he succeeded Eliot Spitzer (D) last year, Paterson has faced declining poll numbers (in one recent survey, New York voters said they'd actually prefer Spitzer as governor) and a bleak landscape in 2010. If he's crafty, however, the governor could parlay the recent chaos in Albany into his own political revival. While state senators remain paralyzed by a power struggle, Paterson has embraced a populist "get back to work" message aimed at improving his image by comparison. His efforts could, of course, be moot if Attorney General Andrew Cuomo decides to run; a new poll shows Cuomo leading Paterson in a primary matchup by a more than 4-1 margin.
• Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.): One day after admitting he had an extramarital affair, Ensign stepped down from his Senate leadership post. Since then, he's dropped off most Republicans' lists of possible 2012 presidential candidates. His poll numbers have taken a nosedive, and he's keeping a low profile. But the worst may be over. Voters, after all, have a short attention span when it comes to run-of-the-mill sex scandals, so unless this story evolves into a broader indictment of Ensign, it's hard to imagine he's any more vulnerable in a few months than, say, Sen. David Vitter, R-La., is today.
• Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.): Early April was a dark time for Dodd. Stung by backlash from his 2008 presidential bid and ties to financial scandals, Dodd's approval ratings sank to an all-time low of 33 percent in one poll, which also showed him trailing his likely GOP challenger, former Rep. Rob Simmons, by 16 points. Since then, Dodd has become the main beneficiary of his party's Senate majority, which used its power to place him at the center of the chamber's major legislative action. Last week, his ailing friend, Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., paid him tribute in a TV ad now running across the Nutmeg State. At a White House press conference on health care Monday, President Obama singled out Dodd for being "an outstanding leader on a whole host of health care issues throughout his career." Dodd's not out of the woods yet. But if he does survive, the lesson will be that majority has its privileges.
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.): Gillibrand was once hard-pressed to chart a roadmap to victory. Neither a Kennedy nor a Clinton, the second-term upstate congresswoman appointed to the Senate by Paterson instantly drew primary threats from the powerful New York City delegation, who insisted that the party's liberal base would shun her votes on gun control, stimulus funds and immigration. Since then, Gillibrand has made a dramatic lurch to the left, announcing new positions on same-sex marriage and immigration reform -- among others. Meanwhile, the White House and Sen. Charles Schumer (D) have worked hard to clear her primary field. Few Democrats believe Rep. Carolyn Maloney, the only major Democrat still eyeing a run, poses a serious threat. Gillibrand is now among the safest Senate "incumbents" running in 2010.
Previously in PolitiScope
- Obama Keeping Friends At Arm's Length (06/17/2009)
- Deeds' Win Muddies The Waters For GOP (06/10/2009)
- Texas Republicans' Battle Anything But Moderate (06/03/2009)
- Sotomayor Already Rallying Republicans (05/27/2009)
- McAuliffe Finding '08 A Hard Year To Forget (05/20/2009)
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