Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2008
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POLL TRACK
New Yorkers Lukewarm On Kennedy
By 2-1 Margin, Voters Say Governor Will Pick Her To Replace Clinton In Senate, But Support Is Soft Upstate; Cuomo Is Hanging Tight
New Yorkers aren't convinced that Caroline Kennedy is the right person to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Senate, but they still believe by a 2-1 margin that Gov. David Paterson will tap her for the post, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Kennedy's name may have given her a leg up in the scrum for Clinton's Senate seat, but Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, a fellow Democrat and the son of former Gov. Mario Cuomo, is hanging tight in public opinion polls. Thirty-three percent of voters back Kennedy, compared to 29 percent supporting Cuomo; the rest of the electorate is undecided or favors another candidate. Kennedy's lead is fueled by strong support from New York City voters, who back her over Cuomo by a 42 percent to 27 percent clip, and Democrats, who support her 41 percent to 27 percent.
Cuomo's name hasn't dominated media coverage, but he's been a dynamic force in opinion polls. He has a higher favorable rating than Kennedy (55 percent to 46 percent), and a sky-high 72 percent of New Yorkers approve of the job he is doing as attorney general. Forty-one percent of voters, meanwhile, say Kennedy is not qualified for the Senate, compared to 40 percent who say she is. And while the Cuomo name doesn't have the same magic as the Kennedy pedigree, it still draws a lot of water in the Empire State.
Meanwhile, the Camelot mystique isn't giving Kennedy a free pass outside the five boroughs and Democratic circles. Upstate voters prefer Cuomo 31 percent to 27 percent over Kennedy, who has lived most of her adult life on the Upper East Side. Republicans favor Cuomo by a 13-point margin, and independents prefer him for the job by a 3-point gap.
Kennedy also doesn't seem to be gaining much traction with voters. A Public Policy Polling survey released Dec. 9 showed Kennedy with a 44 percent to 23 percent lead over Cuomo. In a Siena Research Institute poll released Dec. 17, voters favored Cuomo 26 percent to 23 percent over Kennedy.
But while New Yorkers are split on Kennedy and Cuomo, their gut feeling -- 48 percent to 25 percent -- that Paterson will tap Kennedy may be a more important indicator, said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"In this case, the only opinion that matters is David Paterson's," he said. "Maybe we should have talked to him."