Monday, Nov. 3, 2008
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ONLINE EXCLUSIVE
Deadlock If House Decides Election
Polls Are Tightening In Key States, Raising The Possibility That Election Day Could End In A Tie And Trigger A Prolonged Decision In Congress
Recent state polls on the presidential election raise the possibility that balloting might continue for weeks beyond Nov. 4, and that Congress could become the final decider.
As the margin appears to tighten between Barack Obama and John McCain, the odds are increasing that the outcome could become the dream (or nightmare, depending on your viewpoint) scenario that the Electoral College vote will end in a 269-to-269 tie.
According to RealClearPolitics.com, Obama's total in state polls this weekend dropped to 278 after Ohio and Virginia moved into the toss-up column. That leaves Colorado, with its 9 electoral votes, as potentially the final obstacle to a 50-state tie. That also assumes, of course, that McCain wins all 10 states currently in the "toss-up" category -- Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana and Arizona.
A McCain sweep of the toss-up states is admittedly an unlikely scenario, but stranger things certainly have happened this year. This scenario also assumes a unanimous vote for McCain in Republican-leaning Nebraska, where the electors are split among the three congressional districts and the Obama campaign has invested heavily in the Omaha-based 2nd District.
Assuming the electors faithfully follow the votes in their home states and produce a tie after meeting in the state capitals this December, the 12th Amendment to the Constitution decrees that the contest in January would go to the House in the newly elected Congress, where each state would get one vote regardless of its size. The winning candidate must receive a majority of 26 of the 50 states.
Even though Democrats appear certain to expand their House majority in tomorrow's election, that does not necessarily assure their success in a presidential-vote count. Much as Obama's big edge in several populous states such as California, New York and Illinois will likely translate into an electorally meaningless edge in the national popular vote, he likewise would have "wasted" votes in those states if the contest went to the House.
The following listing shows the likely breakdown of the House delegations for the 50 states in the 111th Congress, which is scheduled to convene on Jan. 3. The states are grouped by region. Currently, 22 delegations will almost certainly have Democratic majorities, and 9 will almost certainly have Republican majorities. Of the 19 others, 12 currently have Republican majorities, five have Democratic majorities and two are evenly split.
In those 19 states, the listing also shows the districts that would likely be instrumental if partisan control shifted within those delegations -- either the incumbents who are in competitive contests for re-election or the retiring member in a competitive open seat.
If no candidate wins a majority of the 50 delegations, the newly elected Senate would select the vice president, who then becomes acting president on Jan. 20 and serves unless and until the House makes a decision. On the vice-presidential vote, the 12th Amendment simply states that "a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice."
The 12th Amendment was proposed by Congress in 1803 and ratified the next year, following the Electoral College deadlock in 1800 between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr. Only once has it sent the presidential election to the House -- in 1824, when the electoral votes were divided among four candidates; although Andrew Jackson led in electoral votes, the House selected John Quincy Adams with 13 of the 24 state delegations.