Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2008
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Reshaping The Electorate: Obama Has Mixed Success
Did Barack Obama meet his goals to reshape the electorate in key battleground states? Exit polls from 2004 and 2008 suggest the answer was yes in some respects, but no in others.
As the charts below demonstrate, the share of the vote cast by Hispanics rose substantially in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada -- all states carried by President Bush in 2004 that Obama captured in 2008. At the same time, Obama improved on the Democratic share of the vote among Hispanics in all three states, as well as in Florida, another 2004 red state that he captured this week.
With African-Americans the picture is more mixed. Obama improved on John Kerry's performance among blacks in virtually all the key states where they could be measured. But while the share of the vote cast by African-Americans increased in some states -- particularly Georgia, Missouri, Nevada -- it declined or remained stagnant in others (North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia.)
With young people, the other principal target for Obama's get-out-the-vote effort, the story was somewhat similar. In most states, Obama won a larger share of the vote among people under 30 than Kerry did -- in several states by huge margins. But while the share of the vote cast by young people increased in most states (particularly Indiana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia and New Hampshire) it declined in some Rustbelt battlegrounds, such as Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
The charts also underscore how much Obama's performance among closely watched groups, from white women to independents, varied from state to state.
Two sets of charts are available below. Select "Share Of The Total Vote" to see whether key demographic groups in 14 swing states grew or shrank as a share of the total electorate. Select "Performance Of Democratic Candidate" to see what proportion of these groups voted for the Democrat (Kerry in 2004, Obama in 2008).
Surveys used in this analysis
• 2004 National Election Pool National Election Day Exit Poll, 13,719 respondents
• 2008 National Election Pool National Election Day Exit Poll, 17,836 respondents
Please note that the exit poll results used different cutoffs for the oldest age group. The 2004 results are for age 60+, while the 2008 results are for age 65+.