Monday, Oct. 6, 2008
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FROM THE TRAIL
Obama Bets His Chips On Red
The Democrat Has Spent A Lot Of Time In Counties He Probably Won't Win, But Which Might Help Him Secure His Margins
Campaign 2008From The Trail
NBC/National Journal embed reporters file regular dispatches on their experiences from the trail.
Previously in this series:
• Palin Takes Debate-Prep Detour In Arizona (09/30/08)
• Should McCain Have Bailed On The Bailout? (09/30/08)
• Biden Preps For Careful Confrontation With Palin (09/30/08)
Read The Entire Series
ASHEVILLE, N.C. -- Barack Obama offered a glimpse into how he saw the political landscape at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, when he chastised "the pundits" for dividing the country into red states and blue states. On the trail in 2007 and 2008, bridging those political worlds has been part of Obama's pitch -- and his success. Since early in the primary season, the Illinois senator's campaign has talked about expanding the electoral map by registering new voters and trying to coax Republicans and independents into the fold.
"I believe that Democrats can't shrink the map. We have to expand the map," Obama told a clutch of reporters on a flight from Butte, Mont., to St. Louis in July. "In so many election cycles we've had such a narrow path to victory."
He said he wanted to be "greedy" and win as many states as possible while helping to boost support for candidates all the way down the ticket.
Obama's "50-State Strategy" was always an ambitious plan, but after more than 20 months of campaigning, Obama has made serious headway in several red states, putting pressure on John McCain to defend states President Bush won easily in 2004. Part of what has distinguished his campaign from those of previous Democrats like John Kerry is just how much time Obama has spent in these Republican-leaning states -- and in some of the reddest parts of them, hoping to pick off enough votes to put a big dent in McCain's overall margins and perhaps eke out a win.
Since clinching the nomination, Obama has held about a dozen events in each of several states that voted for Bush last time around, including Virginia, Florida and Ohio, and roughly half that many events in Colorado, Nevada, Missouri and North Carolina -- all of them part of that sea of red. He has also made at least two trips each to Iowa, Montana, New Mexico and Indiana since June.
The last Democratic presidential candidate to make a campaign stop in Indianapolis this late in the year was Lyndon Baines Johnson, said Edward Treacy, chairman of the Marion County Democratic Party. According to the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Johnson appeared there on Oct. 8, 1964.
In September, Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate since Harry Truman to visit Grand Junction, Colo., in a county that Bush carried by about 20,000 votes in 2004. During his stop, the senator drew about 5,800 cheering fans to hear him speak at an orchard. More than 18,000 people came out to see him a few Saturdays ago in Jacksonville, Fla., in a county Bush won by about 62,000 votes. Kerry lost Russell County, Va., by just under 1,000 votes, yet an Obama rally in Lebanon last month brought out 2,400 people. Of course, crowd numbers usually include people who have traveled from elsewhere to see a candidate, but they still offer a good measure of a campaign's organizational strength on the ground.
Joe Biden and Michelle Obama have also spent a lot of time in key battlegrounds like Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
"What he is doing is similar to what Bush did: try to maximize his party's vote in areas of competitive states that are certain to produce a majority for his opponent but can contribute to a statewide win," said Thomas Mann, an elections expert from the Brookings Institution.
In a close race, campaigning along the margins could prove crucial to eking out a victory. Freshman Sen. Ken Salazar of Colorado won his seat in 2004 by about 100,000 votes on the same day Kerry lost the state by about the same number. While Salazar carried few counties that Kerry did not, he managed to hold down the margins in others, allowing his big advantage in urban areas like Denver to offset his narrower losses in red areas.
"We don't have to win in every part of every state to win the state. To the extent that we can cut into the traditional margins, it makes it all the more likely we can win the states," said Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod. "From very beginning of this race we've competed everywhere and defied the odds, and we're going to keep doing that."
There are some states that appear to have fallen off the map, like Georgia and North Dakota. Both were cited by the Obama campaign earlier in the race as possible Democratic pick-ups, but Obama has not visited either since July. Many other states were never really in play.
Pennsylvania is one state where polls show Obama in the lead. But a month is an eternity in politics. Sen. Bob Casey acknowledged that the Democratic nominee had some work to do to convince Keystone State voters over 65 that he could do the job, but he said there were also moderate Republican enclaves in Southeastern and Central Pennsylvania where Obama might be able to pick up voters concerned about the economy. He said he also expected the senator to head back to Western Pennsylvania.
"Central Pennsylvania is a massive area for Republican votes for a generation -- for more than a generation -- but there are still some moderate Republicans in Central Pennsylvania that I think Barack's message on the economy appeals to," Casey said on the sidelines of a rally in Abington last week.
Kerry lost Buncombe County, N.C., where Asheville is located, by less than 1,000 votes, and Bush beat Al Gore there by more than 7,000 votes. But some 28,000 people came out to see Obama speak at a Sunday rally at a high school football stadium. Axelrod noted the senator was spending several days doing debate prep in here in Asheville, calling it "not the most likely place."
"We've got 30 days left, and when we started this campaign we said that we were going to change the political map. And people said, No, it can't be done. And we kept on coming down to North Carolina, and people said, What's he doing spending so much time in North Carolina?" Obama said Saturday night at a dinner hosted by the North Carolina Democratic Party. "Despite the pundits, despite the prognosticators, despite the cynicism, turns out, 30 days left, we are right on the hunt in North Carolina. We will win at the top of North Carolina, we will win at the bottom of North Carolina. We will win in the eastern part of the state, we will win the western part of the state."
Updated on Oct. 9 at 3:31 p.m.