Updated at 9:06 a.m. on Nov. 18.

Meet Tom Perriello, vulnerable House Democrat, whose tiny corner of the 2010 campaign cycle is a microcosm of the national landscape.

To appreciate just how much grief House Democrats could face next year, consider the freshman congressman's past week in the largely rural district (Virginia-05) he won last year by 727 votes. Police were so concerned about violence at the Veterans Day event he attended at a local middle school that they dispatched a cordon to protect him. Meanwhile, a conservative group called the TEA Party Patriots threatened to burn Perriello and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., in effigy at a "Fired Up for Freedom" rally next weekend.

Independents abandoned Democrats in state races this year, but Perriello said it's those voters he's courting with his tough votes.

The face of Democrats' uphill climb in 2010 is a boyish-looking 35-year-old, an Ivy League-educated lawyer in a district that backed Republican John McCain narrowly last year and, this month, swung decidedly into Republican Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell's column.

Those factors alone would worry any Democrat. Since taking office, however, Perriello has carved out an even steeper challenge for himself, embracing a trifecta of trouble-making bills: President Obama's stimulus package, the cap-and-trade climate change measure and, this month, the health care reform bill that passed the House by a razor-thin margin. Perriello, who had the slimmest margin of victory of any House Democrat in '08, was the only freshman from a McCain district who backed all three bills.

Despite that unique designation, Perriello symbolizes something broader in Pelosi's caucus: Slim victories like his in traditionally Republican districts in 2006 and 2008 gave Democrats their sizable House majority, one they're now struggling to defend because of tough votes Pelosi has forced him and others to cast. Democrats hold a 41-seat margin in the House -- including 49 members from McCain districts, 22 of whom have been elected since 2006.

Chris LaCivita, a strategist for state Sen. Robert Hurt, one of six Republicans vying to challenge the Democrat, said Perriello has been "bordering on the clueless" this year. "Seeing how closely divided his district was [in 2008], you'd think maybe Perriello would have adopted a more moderate or center-right independence. But he hasn't," LaCivita said. "He's done actually the complete opposite. His daily mantra is to poke the people in the district in the eye."

For now, Perriello seems unfazed by his dire prospects. "I'm happy as a pig in slop," he said this week. "I certainly like my odds." Democrats' best weapon, he noted, continues to be the GOP's lingering disarray. "I think we have our challenges, which is trying to bring down health care costs. And they have theirs, which is how to keep their party together," he said. "I'll leave that to them."

That disarray could play out in Perriello's race, where one Republican candidate has already quit the GOP primary to run on the Virginia Conservative Party ticket. "It may amount to only drawing enough votes from the Republican candidate to ensure Tom Perriello a second term," conservative Bradley Rees said in announcing his third-party bid. "If so, so be it. Maybe then, the party will understand that we are trying to save the GOP from its worst enemy: not the Democrats, but themselves." Democrats watched with glee this month as a similar GOP feud in upstate New York handed Democrats a House seat that Republicans have held for more than a century.

Still, a huge chunk of the winning coalition Democrats assembled last fall, in Virginia and elsewhere, is also fraying. Independent voters who put Obama over the top abandoned Democrats in state races this year.

But Perriello said it's those independent voters he's courting with his tough votes. "Most of the people in the middle are turned off by this ideological fight," he said. "What they care about is whether it's going to bring down their premiums. And any party that seems oblivious to the skyrocketing costs for middle-class families and small-business owners is out of touch with the economic pain of average Americans."

Democrats' fate in 2010, he said, depends on the economy -- and their ability to craft a more effective message. "Right now we're helping to create a new competitive advantage. But we aren't communicating it that way," he said. "We are addressing health care and energy because we believe it's about creating jobs and competitive advantages, but they need to be understood [by voters] essentially as economic votes."

While the congressman has his work cut out for him, one thing does seem to be going his way. Following a storm of protests, the chairman of the TEA Party Patriots canceled the plan to burn Perriello in effigy. Nigel Coleman told a local newspaper that some members were concerned that folks might mistake the Patriots for being a violent group. (Gee, you think?)

For his part, Perriello said he's disappointed by the change of plans. "I've got to say, I'm bummed I won't be burned in effigy," he said, noting the Tea Party event and the tight security on Veterans Day. "Man, two straight weekends in a row I've been denied."