Updated at 1:26 p.m. on June 2.

While campaigning in Virginia this weekend for Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell, Mitt Romney told reporters that "what is happening in Virginia and New Jersey is really critical to conservative principles nationally."

Actually, if Republicans do win these governor's races, it'll be because they were able to broaden their message beyond that of a traditional "conservative."

In the Old Dominion State, wary of the GOP's recent failures in Northern Virginia, McDonnell's been working hard to portray himself as a soccer dad, not a conservative crusader. In New Jersey, which holds its primary today, Republicans are pinning their hopes on a moderate -- former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

If Christie loses, the GOP misses its best chance in years to win statewide office in New Jersey.

While some are trying to make these primaries a referendum on the GOP's broader "identity crisis," that template is a rough fit in New Jersey, a sometimes contrary state where the Republican dynamics are still playing out.

Christie has gotten a serious conservative challenge from former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, who told his supporters this weekend to "stand up against the mushy, moderate middle." The moderate/conservative battle is nothing new in New Jersey Republican politics. Just ask Rep. Bob Franks, who, like Christie, had the backing of the GOP establishment in 2001 -- and still lost the primary to conservative Bret Schundler. Four years later, Schundler lost out to more moderate Doug Forrester.

The difference this year: The stakes are higher. Republicans can't afford to have another bad election night. If Christie loses, the GOP misses its best chance in years to win statewide office in New Jersey.

At this point, though, Christie is the heavy favorite. A Quinnipiac poll had Christie ahead of Lonegan by 23 points, while a Farleigh Dickinson survey showed him up by 24 points. To be sure, polling low-turnout races -- as this is expected to be -- is tough. A small number of voters can have disproportionate influence. Even so, the leader in the final polls taken by Quinnipiac before the '01 and '05 primaries was the ultimate winner on election night.

We also know, however, that primary results have not been predictive of future success in this state. Schundler crushed Franks by 14 points and went on to lose to Democrat Jim McGreevey by the same margin. In '05, Forrester won a seven-way race with just 36 percent and went on to lose to Jon Corzine by 10 points.

The bigger question, then, is how Corzine gets himself out of the deep trouble he's in. Even as Christie's spent the last few weeks focusing on June instead of November, it hasn't given the embattled Democratic incumbent much reprieve. He remains as unpopular today as he did a few months ago. The most recent poll showed him losing to Christie by 7 points.

Democrats have long held that voters in New Jersey are a cranky bunch, unwilling to give high marks to any elected official. McGreevey, for example, won his 2001 contest with 56 percent of the vote, yet started his tenure in January of 2002 with 42 percent job approval rating. So much for a honeymoon.

The best thing going for Corzine is the electoral math. As of October, registered Democrats and independents made up 80 percent of the voters in the state, and a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll assumed that 74 percent of voters would be. This means that Corzine doesn't have to move hardened partisans to win in November; he simply needs to get Democrats on board. If Corzine can get 90 percent of Democrats to support him (he's at 57 percent) and 45 percent of independents (he's at 31 percent; Christie's at 39 percent), that would be 52 percent even without any Republicans.

Of course, given the state's struggling economy and voters' overall disapproval with the way Corzine is doing his job, hitting these targets won't be easy. That's where his willingness to spend liberally from his personal fortune comes into play.

And now you understand why Vice President Joe Biden was stumping for Corzine on Monday night, even though he has token Democratic opposition. The more Corzine can tie himself to the Obama administration and other popular Democrats, the better.

Meanwhile, the more Christie is associated with GOP ideologues, the more likely he'll hurt himself among independents and Democrats. Does this mean that Christie will politely decline invitations from folks like Romney (the onetime moderate New Englander who's re-branded himself a conservative), Newt Gingrich or Michael Steele, all of whom may want to use his campaign as a launching pad for their own national political ambitions?

If Christie pulls it off tonight, he may have more than just Corzine and Democrats to worry about this fall.