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POLL TRACK
Elephant Graveyard
Bush, Economy & Primary Voting Bode Well For Dems
The never-ending story that is the Democratic presidential primary campaign has given Republicans plenty of cause for cheer, as Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton continue to divide their party's voters and leaders. But while John McCain polls well in general election matchups, public opinion still seems to favor Democrats from the top of the ticket to the bottom.
A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll [PDF] finds that President Bush has outdone himself again, sinking to an approval rating of 27 percent -- the lowest ever in the survey. A second new poll [PDF], from FOX News/Opinion Dynamics, measures Bush's disapproval rating at its highest ever, and not long ago, Bush also set a record in the long history of Gallup polls by hitting the highest disapproval rating the company had ever measured. Not surprisingly, Democrats are already linking McCain to Bush on Iraq, health care and the economy.
The economy looks to be particularly damaging for Republicans. In FOX's survey, 40 percent of respondents said the economy is the top issue of the election -- far above the 13 percent who said the same of Iraq. That means an uphill fight for the party holding the White House, especially when the NBC/WSJ poll finds that three-quarters of those surveyed disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy and only 6 percent of FOX respondents say the economy is "doing okay."
And in generic party matchups, Democrats continue to enjoy an edge. NBC/WSJ respondents preferred a generic Democrat over a generic Republican in the presidential race, 45 percent to 25 percent. That 20-point lead marks an increase from March, when Democrats were favored by only a 15-point margin. The generic preference for a Democratic-controlled Congress also remains strong, with Democrats favored by 15 points, a slight uptick from March.
Respondents to that survey were also more likely to self-identify as Democrats than Republicans, a preference that has been apparent in record-setting Democratic primary turnout across the country. When pollsters asked voters which party's primary they had voted in or planned to vote in, 52 percent said Democrats, compared with 33 percent for the GOP.
Left In Limbo
Conventional wisdom suggests that the past several weeks of the Democratic primary race have brought Obama off of his pedestal and back down to Earth, and new poll numbers confirm that the Illinois senator’s meteoric rise has, in fact, abated.
In a new CBS News/New York Times poll [PDF], Obama leads Clinton 46 percent to 38 percent among Democratic voters. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey [PDF] shows Obama up three points, 46 percent to 43 percent, while the new FOX News/Opinion Dynamics measure [PDF] shows Clinton besting Obama, 44 percent to 41 percent. When CBS/NYT asked Democrats whom they expected to win the nomination, 51 percent cited Obama, compared to Clinton’s 34 percent. But that represents a 31-point swing from the beginning of April, when Democrats picked Obama nearly three to one.
On the question of electability, Obama has also lost ground. In April, 56 percent of Democrats told CBS/NYT pollsters that Obama had a better chance of beating McCain in the general election, compared to Clinton’s 32 percent. That margin has now shrunk to 11 points, with Obama at 48 percent and Clinton at 37 percent. FOX shows Clinton ahead of Obama on this measure, 48 percent to 38 percent.
What is to blame for this slide in support for Obama? The resurrection of the Jeremiah Wright issue is certainly not helping. FOX asked respondents whether Obama's relationship with his former pastor made them more or less likely to vote for him. Forty-four percent of all voters said they were now less likely to support Obama. That number rose to 48 percent among white voters. The survey was conducted April 28-29, however, and it was the afternoon of the 29th when Obama forcefully repudiated Wright.
But the damage to Obama's reputation might be hard to undo. In both the CBS/NYT and NBC/WSJ polls, Democratic voters view Clinton as more patriotic and representative of "traditional American values" than Obama. Clinton does have perception problems of her own, however, as Obama is considered more honest and trustworthy, more likely to unite people and more likely to bring real change. Overall, Democratic voters do not see a resolution in sight for this contentious race. Nearly seven in 10 told CBS/NYT pollsters that they do not expect their party to choose a nominee before the convention in August.
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Analysis
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