If the White House's goal in bringing David Plouffe on board was to help allay the concerns of nervous Democrats and stanch the flow of dire 2010 stories, it hasn't worked out so well.
Plouffe, of course, was the heralded architect of Barack Obama's 2008 campaign. He's been enlisted to help the White House avoid any more Massachusetts-style surprises. Even so, it may not be silently surging Republican candidates that he has to worry about. His own party is delivering some of the most unexpected news.
Even if vulnerable Democrats decide to try and ride out this storm, are they really going to look to the White House for advice?
Just a day after White House officials took to the Sunday shows to praise Plouffe, two Democrats announced they won't be on the congressional ballot this year: Rep. Marion Berry, D-Ark., and Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden. Berry told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that he was having flashbacks to the 1994 midterms and wasn't at all convinced that the White House understood the political peril Blue Dogs like himself were in. The paper quoted Berry as saying, "They just kept telling us how good it was going to be. The president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, 'Well, the big difference here and in '94 was you've got me.' We're going to see how much difference that makes now."
Meanwhile, if the vice president's own son doesn't want to run for his Senate seat -- in a blue state, after all -- it suggests that trying to get other wavering Democratic candidates to "take one for the team" is going to be a very, very tough assignment.
More important, while the White House may want to take greater control over the midterms, it's clear that vulnerable Democrats want just the opposite. The White House may want to get everyone on the same page, but wary and weary Democrats are in an "every man for himself" mindset.
Polling taken over the last couple of weeks shows Democrat incumbents in a world of hurt. Here's a sampling just from Monday's Hotline: Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is trailing former Rep. John Kasich; Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., is still losing, big-time; and Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh is under 50 percent and essentially tied with GOP Rep. Mike Pence. This doesn't take into account private polling that shows plenty of incumbent House Democrats in bad shape.
To be sure, these polls are coming at what could end up being Democrats' lowest point in 2010. There's still time for their numbers to recover and voter "anger" to dissipate. But these candidates don't have time to wait for a bounce.
Much closer on the horizon are state filing deadlines for ballot access. The sun may come out tomorrow, but for those folks who have a go/no-go decision in their immediate future, they only see dark clouds. This makes for a dreary scenario for Democratic committee flacks. Instead of a "flood" of retirements, it's more likely to be a steady drip. Which means that every week, the story remains the same: Washington pondering what the latest Democratic retirement means for Obama's agenda and Democrats' fortunes in the midterm.
Even if vulnerable Democrats decide to try and ride out this storm, are they really going to look to the White House for advice? To be sure, the Obama '08 campaign was a solid and successful operation. But as one smart GOP strategist said to me, Americans are "looking for good government, not good campaigning." It doesn't matter how great the pitch is; unless Democrats have something to sell, voters aren't going to buy.
The other important thing to remember is that members are not convinced that the White House is looking out for their best interests. When all is said and done, the job of the White House political team is to get the president re-elected. Period. Its loyalty is to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, not Capitol Hill.
In the end, however, if Democrats are going to hold on to their seats, they need to find a way to work together. There are plenty of Blue Dogs who don't want to have this election nationalized. But they will be tied to the national Democratic agenda one way or another. Furthermore, if the "big money" -- a term that has expanded greatly in the wake of the recent Supreme Court case -- senses that Democrats could lose control of Congress, Republicans will only benefit more.
Bottom line: Democrats own the whole enchilada. They may as well try to find a way to make it appetizing to the public, even if it means marketing it differently in different parts of the country.
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