The best and often most bittersweet part of this time of year is the reminiscing. One of my favorite ways to do this is to go through the list of quotes compiled by The Hotline that capture the year in politics as it unfolded.
With the luxury of 20/20 hindsight, here are the ones I think not only sum up the year, but give us a glimpse into what 2010 may hold.
"She's just another person. So what? Her name is Kennedy. Why do you pay so much attention to her?" New York Gov. David Paterson (D) on Caroline Kennedy, Buffalo News, Jan. 9.
Paterson's public fumbling in picking a Senate replacement for Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton marked the beginning of what would become a series of mishaps and mishandlings on his part. At the time of this quote, Paterson's approval rating was 53 percent. Almost a year later, it's down to 40 percent and almost half of New York Democrats think he doesn't deserve re-election. The best news for Democrats is that they have a solid candidate waiting in the wings -- Attorney General Andrew Cuomo -- while Republicans don't. The only question now is whether Paterson is willing to go toe-to-toe with Cuomo. Given his current standing with voters, he has literally nothing to lose. Cuomo, meanwhile, has to give up his perch as attorney general, and a loss here would be his second unsuccessful attempt at governor.
"People really hate you, and they're starting to hate us because we're hanging out with you." House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., Feb. 3.
Frank's comments to banking industry executives were quite prescient. The stimulus, TARP and bailouts may be separate items, but all have become synonymous with government overreach and have fueled a new era of populist anger that threatens the party in charge in Washington. Even so, Democrats argue that the flames of this anger can burn the GOP, too. Intraparty fighting cost the GOP N.Y.-23. But in Florida, even a long, drawn-out battle between Republican Gov. Charlie Crist and former House Speaker Marco Rubio won't give Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek better odds of winning the Senate seat.
"I'm getting a big honeymoon from the American people." President Obama, "Nightline," Feb. 10.
That honeymoon lasted about six months. In July, his approval ratings finally came back down to earth and replicated his showing in 2008. The really hard part about running as a "change" candidate: Half the people who voted for you voted for a change to something, while the other half wanted a change from something. Obama's ability to reconcile these two forces will be the key to his chances in 2012.
"I felt badly for Chris." Sen. Joe Lieberman, I/D-Conn., New London (Conn.) Day, March 24.
Lieberman is referring here to Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., and the criticism he'd been drawing for his role in the AIG bonus scandal. This could also sum up the way many Democrats feel about Dodd. Dodd's taken his bad poll numbers seriously and has done just about everything he can to turn them around. He's been front-and-center on health care and financial services reform. He's gotten in-person fundraising help from both Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. And yet, his numbers still stink. At this point, the only way for Democrats to hold this seat is for Dodd to leave it.
"My job as head of the NRSC is to guide the GOP back to a majority in the Senate. I can't do that without Arlen Specter." National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn, R-Texas, April 14.
Oops. Just a couple weeks after Cornyn wrote this in a letter to Pennsylvania Republicans, Specter would switch parties. Yet, this statement is as accurate today as it was back in April. The latest polling shows that the easiest way for former Club for Growth President Pat Toomey (R) to win the Senate seat is to face Specter in the fall.
"There are times when I have to set aside my personal preferences." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., Las Vegas Sun, July 29.
Reid was referring here to negotiating a health care bill that may not include a public option. But he could have been talking about everything he has to do as majority leader that undermines his re-election chances. Already a polarizing figure, Reid's high-profile strong-arming of the health care bill has not made him any more popular back home. His only hope now is that once he's out of the limelight, voters will forget all the drama of 2009. This also assumes that Reid is successful in putting other controversial issues on the back burner in 2010.
"I don't have any illusions that this will be easy street." Rep. Michael Castle, R-Del., Oct. 6.
The decision by Castle to run for Biden's Senate seat was one of Cornyn's biggest coups at the NRSC and one of the best examples of how a change in political climate can make a world of difference when it comes to recruiting. It's hard to believe that if this seat opened up in 2006 or 2008 Castle would've taken this risk. Also, if Attorney General Beau Biden (D) decides against running here, Castle's prediction will be wrong. He will, in fact, have a very easy path to victory.
Meanwhile, regardless of what else happens in 2010, should Republicans pick up the trifecta of Illinois, Delaware and Nevada, they can boast that the midterms were indeed a referendum on President Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress.
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