In the wake of the Nov. 3 elections, two developments have gotten the most attention: the huge swing among independent voters from Democrat to Republican and the "enthusiasm" gap between Republicans and conservatives, who turned out in large numbers, and Democrats and liberals/moderates, who didn't. If these trends hold true in 2010, a whole lot of Democrats are in danger of losing their seats. None more, perhaps, than Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

A post-election survey of New Jersey and Virginia voters for the liberal-leaning group "Women's Voices Women Vote" by the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research concluded that unmarried women, younger voters, African Americans and Latinos -- a group of voters they call the "Rising American Electorate" -- dropped off significantly from their "historical proportions" in 2008. In '08, for example, this bloc of voters made up 47 percent of the Virginia electorate. In 2009, they were just 36 percent.

Democrats will need to do more than just turn out those Obama "surge" voters of 2008.

Exit polling in both states also showed a big bump in the number of self-described conservatives and a dip among self-ID'd moderates and liberals. In 2009, 40 percent of the Virginia electorate described themselves as "conservative," a 7-point bump from 2008. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who identified themselves as moderate or liberal dropped 7 points from 2008. In New Jersey, 30 percent of the electorate was self-described as conservative (a 5-point bump from 2008), and moderates dropped from 50 percent of the electorate to 45 percent.

At a briefing sponsored by The Hotline on Nov. 4, Republican Governors Association Executive Director Nick Ayers marveled at the "velocity" with which independent voters moved from supporting Democrats in '08 to Republicans in '09. A year ago, Barack Obama carried independent voters in Virginia by 1 point. In 2009, Republican Bob McDonnell carried them by 33 points. Obama carried New Jersey independents by 4 points. Republican Chris Christie won them by 30 points.

Also notable was the fact that McDonnell and Christie outperformed John McCain among both conservative and moderate voters. McDonnell did 11 points better among conservatives and 6 points better among moderates. Christie ran 7 points better than McCain among moderates and 3 points better among conservatives.

What should be a greater concern for Democrats is the fact that even though the percentage of white voters remained consistent in New Jersey, Christie did 9 points better among men and 4 points better among women than did McCain. In Virginia, the percentage of white voters increased, and so did McDonnell's margin of victory among this group.

In other words, Republicans in New Jersey and Virginia didn't just benefit from a decrease in the so-called Obama "surge" voter turnout. They also did better among groups that went for Obama in 2008.

What happens if similar patterns emerge in '10, namely a decrease in the percentage of Democratic-leaning voters as well as a narrowing of the margin of victory among groups that were key to Obama's victory? The best place to start in answering this question: the states where Obama overperformed his national average among independents and these so-called Rising American Electorate voters.

Nevada stands out as one of the biggest overperforming states. Obama carried Latinos by 35 points nationally but won them by 52 points in Nevada. First-time voters gave Obama a 39-point margin nationally, but in Nevada, Obama won these voters by 51 points. In 2009, notes WVWV, the "first-timers" dropped off by 4 points in New Jersey and made up just 5 percent of the electorate in Virginia. Obama carried the suburban vote by 2 points. In Nevada, he won them by 21 points. Young voters, also a group likely to drop off in 2010, went for Obama by 35 points in 2008 in Nevada, the same percentage he got nationally.

The good news for Reid is the fact that his current opposition may be even more unsuited to win in Nevada than McCain. None have had to run serious statewide contests, and it shows. Already, one of his opponents, former Republican Party chair Sue Lowden, has gotten skewered by the local press -- thanks to help from a full-throated pushback from Reid -- for joking with a radio host about a 1981 attempt by the mob to blow up the Reid family car.

In New Hampshire, where there aren't a lot of African-American or Hispanic voters, Obama's 9-point victory was created by his strong performance among white voters. He did 10 points better among white non-college-educated voters in New Hampshire than he did nationally. Among white women, Obama did 14 points better than he did nationally. And he did 11 points better among white, college-educated voters. If Republicans nominate a candidate in the Senate race that can appeal to these voters, they'll be able to hold this seat.

Of course, there's a lot of time left between now and November 2010. But if New Jersey and Virginia showed us anything, it's that Democrats need to do more than just turn out those Obama "surge" voters of 2008. They need to do as well as he did among those more traditional groups like independents and whites, too.