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ON THE TRAIL
The Honeymoon's Not Over
Obama's Economic Policies Enjoy Support Among Voters Who Would Normally Shy Away From Bigger Government
After 100 days, all the polls point to the same conclusion: President Obama remains incredibly popular. The latest Diageo/Hotline poll shows him with a 62 percent approval rating -- including 58 percent among independents. Even 30 percent of John McCain voters give him positive marks. But will his next 100 days be as successful?
On most major issues, from the war in Iraq, to energy policy, to foreign affairs, a majority of voters approve of the job he's doing. Yet it's the economy that remains the driving issue.
Many voters who supported McCain still want to see Obama's economic policies succeed.
Sixty-nine percent of voters rank the economy as the most important issue facing the country. And they're not much interested in Obama spending time focusing on anything else. Even though 37 percent of voters think he's not spent enough time on health care, by a margin of 42 percent to 14 percent they say they'd rather have him spend more time focusing on the economy for the rest of 2009.
Overall, 56 percent of voters approve of his handling of the economy -- including 52 percent of independents. Even so, there's been lots of speculation about whether this support is driven more by his personal appeal than by actual approval of his policies.
The Diageo/Hotline poll showed that 34 percent of voters say they support Obama and his economic policies unequivocally, while 22 percent say they don't support Obama or his policies. Translation: No matter what happens with the economy, 56 percent of voters have already essentially made up their mind on Obama.
But that leaves 44 percent up for grabs. One group, which we have dubbed the "hopeful supporters" (20 percent) say they support Obama and his economic policies but aren't confident that those policies will work. The other group, which we call the "skeptical pragmatics" (23 percent), say they don't know if they support Obama and his policies, but "hope" they will work. (Just under 2 percent said they didn't know.)
Keeping these groups happy, then, becomes the key for Obama's continued success. Republicans and independents are equally represented in both blocs (though Democrats are slightly better represented in the hopeful group), but "hopeful supporters" are more likely to stick with Obama even if the economy doesn't improve much.
These voters are more in line with Obama's overall philosophy. Plus, they are also following the economic debate in Washington less closely than the skeptics, the confident supporters or the committed opposition. The skeptics, meanwhile, are currently giving the president a long leash, but if the economy doesn't turn around, it's reasonable to believe they'll break loose.
While 61 percent of hopefuls think more government involvement in the economy is a good thing, just 33 percent of skeptics believe this. More hopefuls approve than disapprove of the job Obama's doing on the economy -- the opposite is true for skeptics. And skeptics made up a bigger percentage of those who voted for McCain (32 percent to 17 percent).
So, what's the tipping point for these skeptics? That's still not clear. Yet the fact that many voters who don't like bigger government, and who supported McCain, still want to see Obama's economic policies succeed suggests that the president's "post-partisan" style is having some success in breaking down the traditional polarized party lines.
Previously in On the Trail
- Virginia Democrats Play The Numbers Game (04/21/2009)
- List Of Shaky Senators Begins With Bunning (04/14/2009)
- From 'Post-Partisanship' To Polarization (04/07/2009)
- GM Ouster A Double-Edged Sword For Obama (03/31/2009)
- Midterm Battle Begins Upstate (03/24/2009)
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