After a brutal couple of elections, Republicans are poised for a comeback in the Northeast.

New York's Democratic governor, David Paterson, is about as popular as athlete's foot, with a job approval rating of 29 percent. In New Jersey, Gov. Jon Corzine is losing in early polling to a Republican candidate who few in the state know anything about. And in Connecticut, 29-year Senate vet Christopher Dodd, who won his last two elections with over 65 percent of the vote, is locked in a dead heat with former GOP Rep. Rob Simmons.

More than 60 percent of New Jersey voters don't know who Christopher Christie is. They just know that they want someone other than Corzine.

But don't mistake individual races for a broader message of GOP success. All these races are a referendum on the individual Democrats, not the party itself.

In New York, the political calculus is pretty simple: If Paterson is the nominee in 2010, the Republicans will win the governorship. The most recent polling taken in the state shows Paterson getting crushed by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani by an average of 15 points. Yet it's unlikely that Paterson will be the Democratic nominee -- he's also losing badly to Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo has yet to announce his intentions, but there's no reason for him to hurry. Given the fact that he easily beats Giuliani in these same polls, he's smart to sit on the sidelines as long as possible. After all, donors won't be willing to give to Giuliani or any other Republican if they think he will ultimately have to face the formidable Cuomo instead of the hapless Paterson.

In New Jersey, economic woes are taking a toll on Corzine's ratings. A recent Rasmussen survey showed his job approval ratings had dropped 11 points since January -- and he was starting at a pretty bad place to begin with: 44 percent.

According to Quinnipiac polling data, Corzine's job approval ratings have been upside-down since August of 2008. Just 34 percent of voters think that Corzine deserves re-election this year. Meanwhile, it's clear this isn't a Democrat thing, as both Sens. Robert Menendez and Frank Lautenberg have net favorable approval ratings. More ominously, former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, the likely GOP nominee, leads Corzine by 9 points even though more than 60 percent of New Jersey voters don't know who Christie is. They just know that they want someone other than Corzine.

Unlike Paterson, Corzine faces no primary challenge. His personal fortune has helped to deter even the most aggressive challengers. More important, he retains good standing with rank-and-file Democrats. In the Quinnipiac poll, Democrats gave Corzine a 67 percent job approval rating and a 55 percent rating on his handling of the economy.

This suggests that Corzine's only path for victory is to make Christie an unacceptable alternative (or hope for a third-party spoiler to split the anti-Corzine vote). If Corzine decides not to run for re-election, Democrats would lose a self-funder but would take away Christie's best line of attack.

Finally, there's Dodd. There's some evidence that despite his low poll numbers, voters' opinions aren't carved in stone. The latest Quinnipiac poll showed his approval rating still under 50 percent, but up 8 points since February. However, his constituents think he's doing a lousy job as Senate Banking chair, with 50 percent giving him negative marks.

Still, getting the heads-up a year out is a cold dose of reality, and Democratic insiders say Dodd's gotten the message and will be working hard to fix his weaknesses.

Meanwhile, Republicans are counting on Simmons -- who in 2000 knocked off another longtime Democratic incumbent charged with being out of touch, Sam Gejdenson -- to work his magic this time around. But if the message is "change," is a former congressman really the best messenger? Democrats have already pounced on Simmons' ties to former House Speaker Tom DeLay and jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Of course, given Dodd's ties and troubles with embattled mortgage lender Countrywide, it may not be in his best interests to get into an ethics debate.

Shaky support behind these three Democrats presents opportunity for the GOP. But in the end, for Republicans to make real, lasting progress in the Northeast, they need to show that they can win in districts on the strength of their own message, not on the weakness of the Democratic incumbent.