The pick has been made, but the drama continues. Here's a look at the political landscape in New York now that Gov. David Paterson (D) has chosen Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand to fill Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's unexpired Senate term.
• The Race For Senate In 2010. Gillibrand's first hurdle will be soothing nervous liberals. As such, the Blue Dog Democrat from rural upstate New York kicked off her statewide "listening tour" on Saturday in Harlem and Queens. She may not be able to make everyone happy, but she could help to defuse any potential enthusiasm on the left for a liberal primary challenger. For their part, liberal bloggers don't seem at all interested in making Gillibrand the next Joe Lieberman. In fact, they were much more upset about the idea of Paterson picking a "dynasty" candidate -- like Caroline Kennedy or even Attorney General Andrew Cuomo -- than one who has a perfect NRA rating.
Democratic Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, meanwhile, seems unlikely to be appeased and is reportedly putting together the framework for a 2010 bid. Yet she's not had to flex her campaign muscles seriously since her upset of GOP Rep. Dan Frisa in 1996. It's hard to imagine that she'll be able to put together the money to conduct a serious statewide campaign, especially when EMILY's List has already come out in support of Gillibrand.
With the state's economy reeling, it's hard to see voters placing much emphasis on the Senate saga.
Democratic voters in New York may agree with McCarthy on the issue of gun control -- the newest Quinnipiac poll showed that 50 percent of Democrats were "less likely" to vote for Gillibrand after they were told of her position on guns -- but it's not clear that it's the kind of issue which will generate lots of cash. As of Dec. 31, McCarthy had $238,000 in the bank. Gillibrand, meanwhile, is a fundraising powerhouse, having raised over $4.5 million for her 2008 bid.
Of course, the fact that Gillibrand can't be painted as a New York City liberal makes her a tough target for Republicans. She will be carrying the weight of a congressional voting record and the label of "Washington insider," but her most likely GOP opponent at this point, Rep. Peter King, was first elected to Congress in 1993 -- not exactly the profile of an outsider. The latest name to surface as a potential foe is former Gov. George Pataki, another candidate who would have trouble voicing the "change" theme.
• The 2010 Governor's Race. Paterson's handling of the whole ordeal has gotten him lots of bad ink, especially among the hypercritical New York press. But will it stick -- or soon be forgotten?
A Siena College poll [PDF] taken in the days right before Paterson announced the Gillibrand pick (Jan. 20-23), showed Cuomo gaining serious traction against Paterson among Democratic voters. A potential matchup between the two showed Paterson at 35 percent and Cuomo at 33 percent. In December, Paterson had a 23-point lead. With at least $3.5 million in the bank and two Democratic senators who aren't going anywhere anytime soon, this is Cuomo's best shot at big-time statewide office.
The poll also showed Paterson losing ground to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. In December, Paterson was beating Giuliani 51 percent to 38 percent. The latest poll showed him ahead by just 2 percentage points, 44 percent to 42 percent.
In the end, however, with the state's economy reeling, it's hard to see voters placing much emphasis on this whole saga. Bottom line: They don't have the luxury to get too attached to it. Paterson's ability to shepherd the state through this budget crisis will be the bigger test of his leadership.
• The Race For Gillibrand's Seat. At first blush, this upstate district looks like a great opportunity for the GOP. George W. Bush carried it in 2000 and 2004. Yet in 2008, not only did Gillibrand carry it with 62 percent, but Obama also carried the district with 51.5 percent, according to analysis by the Democratic group National Committee for an Effective Congress.
Regardless of how the district goes next year, Democrats can afford to lose one seat of their 40-seat majority. Plus, with New York expected to lose two seats in redistricting, this district will probably look a whole lot different in 2012. In the end, the special election is really about gaining or losing a psychological advantage. A Democratic win here could have a dampening effect on GOP recruitment nationwide, while a win would be a much-needed shot in the arm.
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