Over the next two weeks, President Obama will make at least six public pitches for health care reform in an effort to use his political capital to get wavering lawmakers on board. But he used up a lot of it to get his stimulus bill passed, and the most recent national polls show he doesn't have as much to spend as he did even a month or two ago.
It's a hard time to have to check the balance sheet, as the July Diageo/Hotline poll illustrates. While 73 percent of respondents said health care reform would affect them personally, just 25 percent said changes to health care would affect them positively, and 39 percent said change would have a negative impact on them. This means that Obama doesn't have to simply convince people that it's good for them, he has to win over those who think it's going to hurt them.
Every minute that legislation is hanging out there in a state of limbo is another minute the GOP gets to define the terms of the debate.
When you look at those "breakthrough groups" that Obama carried in '08 -- groups that aren't traditional Democratic backers -- you see some real hesitancy on health care. Almost half of college graduates -- a group Obama carried with 50 percent -- said they thought the reform would impact them negatively. So did 45 percent of independents and 53 percent of those making over $100,000 a year.
But even if the drop in Obama's approval ratings suggests an end to the honeymoon, it's not as if he's headed to divorce court. Since June, Obama's overall job approval dropped by 9 points to 56 percent in Diageo/Hotline. This was fueled in large part by a drop among men (15 points), independents (15 points) and rural voters (15 points). Yet, compare these approval ratings today with results among these groups from exit polling taken on Election Day, and you'll see that the Obama coalition is still relatively intact.
Forty-nine percent of men voted for Obama in 2008; he holds a 46 percent approval rating among men today. He took 45 percent of the rural vote in '08; today, he's getting 45 percent approval among rural voters. He won 49 percent of voters making more than $100,000 a year; they give him a 48 percent approval rating now. He took 52 percent among independents in '08; his approval rating among this group stands at 48 percent.
His base also remains supportive. He has 64 percent approval among women -- up 8 points from his '08 showing. African-Americans, Hispanics and Democrats also continue to give him solid ratings. He still has 25 percent of Republicans on his side after taking just 9 percent of the GOP vote in 2008.
This means that Obama can still effectively use his bully pulpit. But what exactly will he be selling?
Organizing For America is giving Obama a push this week. Despite the operation's troubles shifting from a campaign to a policy megaphone, Obama and OFA both know there's no better way to get around a recalcitrant Congress than to harness the power of the people. But without an "Obama plan" on the table -- indeed, without anything concrete and simple to rally around -- how powerful will that be?
There's an obvious reason Obama wants Congress to get him a bill quickly. Every minute that legislation is hanging out there in a state of limbo is another minute the GOP gets to define the terms of the debate. Until Obama draws a line in the sand and gets the specifics settled, it's going to be hard for him to argue that his reform will do more good than harm.
So while Obama may still have the political capital left to promote a plan this fall, the question now is whether the legislation itself will have taken on too much water to be able to sell.
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