Updated at 10:08 a.m. on April 1.
In 2001, President Bush was preparing for his first meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Missile defense was the most pressing issue, and some experts also warned Bush about the Russian president's apparent autocratic tendencies. After the meeting, Bush made his famous judgment: "I looked the man in the eye... I was able to get a sense of his soul."
Eight years later, the missile defense issue is still unresolved and the goal of establishing a comfortable tone with the Russian president is once again at the top of the agenda. The new question is: What did President Obama see in Dmitry Medvedev's eyes when the two met today?
The joint statement issued today by the two leaders after their hourlong meeting was filled with vague statements and a generally positive sentiment -- nothing atypical, as experts predicted. The personal chemistry established, however, will be an important factor that the meeting will set up as a backdrop for future work together. "The last several years have eroded trust and confidence between the two countries," said James Collins, the U.S. ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001. "And the big burden on this meeting is to... try to build that trust back."
Speaking before Wednesday's meeting, Norman Bailey, a former official in the National Security Council and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said he thought Obama and Medvedev would "get along very well."
"Frankly, I never understood that Bush comment, because I don't think Putin has a soul," said Bailey, now a professor at the Institute of World Politics. He added that Medvedev seems to be a "different kind of person from Putin, much more friendly and likable," which may bode well for the personal level of Russian-U.S. relations.
The relationship between past Presidents Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin could serve as a model of mutual understanding between two leaders "with huge responsibilities and facing very challenging times," Collins said. He recalled a briefing in which Clinton interrupted his advisers to ask, "What's in it for Yeltsin?" To Collins, the moment demonstrated Clinton's empathy for the constraints and interests guiding his counterpart.
There is a danger, however, of getting "carried away" in linking the personal with the political, said James Goldgeier, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Doing so, he said, has led to mistakes, such as the Clinton administration's hesitancy to criticize Yeltsin for invading Chechnya. It is unwise to "rest all hopes" upon the person temporarily leading a country, Goldgeier said.
Today, while Russia shares an interest in stabilizing Afghanistan, on other issues it may be harder for Obama and Medvedev to see eye-to-eye. The question of post-Soviet countries joining NATO over strong Russian objections will likely be the most difficult to resolve. Attempts by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to "reset" U.S.-Russia relations may not be enough to keep this issue on the back burner.
The European anti-missile shield will continue to be a wedge between the two governments, although Obama has signaled his willingness to slow down if not stop development in return for the Kremlin's partnership in negotiations with Iran.
As Rose Gottemoeller, Obama's nominee for assistant secretary of State for verification and compliance, awaits Senate approval, the issue potentially under her oversight -- follow-up on the START Treaty -- is on track for negotiation. The nuclear arms control treaty will expire in December, but both sides expressed a willingness to start working on its renewal immediately in today's joint statement.
With the change of administration in Russia, Bailey senses a "two-mindedness" in the government: Contradictory signals have been coming out of Moscow, possibly indicating a separation between a more moderate Medvedev faction and Putin's hardliners.
Medvedev, in a Washington Post op-ed Tuesday, sent positive, though vague, signals about his willingness to cooperate, but he also raised some eyebrows by praising Obama for his "unbiased assessment of America's problems" and its need for change. Expecting Americans to give and Russians to take would lead to a rocky start between the two leaders, Collins warned, but he and Goldgeier both expressed hope that Russia would back up rhetoric with real solutions and actions.
"It's probably time for Mr. Obama and Mr. Medvedev... to sit down and have a long and very frank talk about how each country sees its priorities, how it defines its objectives," Collins said, advising against any rush to judgment after the first meeting. "It will be important to watch the Russian reaction to what I think will be an open hand to engage across the broad issues."
While the two leaders admitted in the post-meeting statement that "differences remain" on some issues -- namely the anti-missile shield in Europe -- the list of the issues they discussed in all areas of global partnership is lengthy, suggesting movement toward fulfilling their promise to "move beyond Cold War mentalities and chart a fresh start in relations between our two countries."
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