Two political nor'easters have shaken up the 2010 Senate landscape this week, both of which suggest Republican prospects continue to improve in a region once considered out of reach. But GOP success in Delaware and New Hampshire hinges largely on how effectively their candidates can run away from the party, not with it.
Following his fundraising swing in the Northeast for two former Senate colleagues, Vice President Joe Biden got a mild shock Tuesday in his own backyard: Contrary to intelligence Biden had been receiving from Delaware sources, longtime Rep. Michael Castle (R) kicked off a bid for Biden's former Senate seat. Perhaps the only Republican who could compete statewide, Castle's move disrupts Biden's hopes to build a family dynasty, likely setting up a tough battle with the vice president's son, Beau.
Beau Biden's presence on the ballot virtually ensures that Delaware will become one of the cycle's most nationalized Senate races.
The Delaware race will be fascinating, for many reasons. Democrats made age an issue when they targeted 79-year-old Sen. William Roth, R-Del., in 2000. Will they make the same case against Castle? (He's 70; Beau Biden is 40). That seems to be the plan favored by Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Eric Schultz, who opened his response to Castle's announcement by noting, "Mike Castle ran his first campaign in 1967."
More importantly, can someone named Biden really wage an "outsider" campaign for Senate that rails against the status quo in Washington? This would seem to be an effective strategy for a state attorney general and Iraq war veteran. But Biden's presence on the ballot virtually ensures that Delaware will become one of the cycle's most nationalized Senate races, a direct referendum on the Obama-Biden administration's first two years in office.
That point wasn't lost on Schultz, who also tied Castle to "George Bush's economic policies... that drove Delaware's economy into a ditch," and said Castle "now won't support any of the Obama-Biden plans to fix it."
In his own statement, Castle confirmed he's aware of the tricky terrain he now faces; the moderate Republican never mentioned his party affiliation, but he twice called himself an "independent."
In his own comments, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, the National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman, read off the same page as Castle, whom he called an "independent and experienced statesman who has earned the respect of Republicans and Democrats alike."
In New Hampshire, the Republican Senate candidate is also reading from the Castle playbook. So far, it appears to be working.
A new poll this week shows Kelly Ayotte (R), a former state attorney general, leading Rep. Paul Hodes (D) by 7 points in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R). Neither candidate is well known yet among voters. But in a state where her party has been in a free fall for nearly a decade, Ayotte has moved quickly to claim the political center.
Ayotte, who served both Republican and Democratic governors as attorney general, declined to say in a recent interview with the New Hampshire Union-Leader how she voted in the last two gubernatorial races. "I worked very hard to make sure that politics didn't come into [the attorney general's office], even though people knew publicly I was a Republican," she told the newspaper. "I don't think it would be fair now to revisit each candidate I voted for or supported because it would politicize the time I spent in the office."
During the interview, Ayotte also sought to straddle several political wedge issues, including abortion rights (she's pro-life but wouldn't say whether Roe v. Wade should be overturned) and the recent Supreme Court nomination of Sonia Sotomayor, whom Ayotte said she'd have voted to confirm even though "I didn't agree with all of her decisions."
The specter of candidates running away from their parties in difficult states or districts is not new, or unique to the GOP. But in a part of the country where they recently have suffered some of their most crushing defeats, we could be witnessing a fascinating revival of an endangered species: the moderate Republican.
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