Updated at 2:44 p.m. on Dec. 18.

With the economy still weak and health care still tied up in the Senate, the outlook is bleak for Democratic congressional candidates in 2010, pollsters from both sides agreed this morning. "Mr. T said it best in 'Rocky III' for the Democrats," said Bill McInturff of the right-leaning Public Opinion Strategies. "Prediction: pain."

McInturff was joined by Fred Yang, senior partner at the left-leaning Garin Hart Yang Research Group, to discuss the outlook for next year's midterm elections at a National Journal Power Breakfast in Washington. Yang agreed that Democrats face an uphill fight next year as approval ratings for President Obama and the Democratic-led Congress remain mixed at best. He and McInturff cited the lagging economy as the party's biggest enemy.

While the panelists acknowledged that there is time for circumstances to change before voters go to the polls, they agreed that negative perceptions of the Democratic Party don't bode well. By trying to tackle tough issues with their large majority, Democrats have spent political capital and alienated some voters, they said. Even if Democrats get credit a few years down the road for reforming health care, "it leaves a lot of people behind in 2010," McInturff said.

Still, McInturff and Yang said passing health care reform would ease pressure on Democrats somewhat by giving congressmen a talking point back home and allowing Congress to move on to other issues, particularly the economy and job creation. "We need to wake up in the morning and go to bed at night thinking about jobs," Yang said. In particular, McInturff said, Democrats need to convince the public that the stimulus has been a success.

Democrats were voted into Congress in 2006 and 2008 on a mantra of change, but the reality of their agenda hasn't necessarily coincided with the vague ideas voters had about the kind of change they wanted, the panelists said. "Half voted for change to something, and half voted for change from something," said moderator Amy Walter, editor in chief of The Hotline. This tension among supporters is a difficult balance for Democrats, she said.

The dissatisfaction across the Democratic coalition will prove problematic, McInturff predicted. In the health care debate, for example, Democrats have frustrated their base by eliminating the public option in the Senate but frustrated moderates by taking actions perceived as too liberal in the House. Even more troubling for Democrats is the lack of motivation among their supporters. This lopsided intensity will be important to watch in 2010, McInturff said. Yang agreed that the Democrats need to motivate their base. The votes are out there, he said, as long as people come to the polls.

Yang stressed that a "pervasive" anger among Americans about the direction of their country has set many voters against all politicians in power, though it particularly hurts the Democratic majority. "We're seeing a deep-seated anti-incumbency," Yang said. "They could be voting out any suit regardless of party." He predicts that as time goes on, some of the anger will be directed toward Republicans as well.

McInturff cautioned that big wins for Republicans in 2010 wouldn't be a harbinger of success in the 2012 elections. The party still faces structural problems in its coalition that haven't been addressed, he said, such as the inability to attract young and Hispanic voters. "Whatever we do in 2010," he said, "it does nothing to fix the Republican Party for 2012."

evaughan@nationaljournal.com