Click here to see how National Journal's Congressional Insiders responded to these questions.

Both left and right bloggers have moved in opposite directions on cap-and-trade's chances since a June 26 bloggers poll asking a similar question about a tighter time period. Back then, National Journal asked how likely cap-and-trade was to pass in 2009. About 64.3 percent of left-leaning bloggers said it was somewhat unlikely to pass, while half of right-leaning bloggers said it was somewhat likely.

Left-leaning bloggers:

Sean-Paul Kelley, The Agonist; Brian Leubitz, Calitics; John Amato, Crooks And Liars; Greg Dworkin, Daily Kos; Howie Klein, Down With Tyranny!; Cheryl Contee, Jack And Jill Politics; Robert Farley, Lawyers, Guns And Money; Taylor Marsh; Ellen Brodsky, News Hounds; John Blevins, Obsidian Wings; Chris Bowers, Open Left; Mark Kleiman, The Reality-Based Community; Tracy Viselli, Reno And Its Discontents; Lee Papa, The Rude Pundit; Matt L. Barron, RuralVotes; Susie Madrak, Suburban Guerrilla; Big Tent Democrat, TalkLeft; Maegan la Mala, VivirLatino

Right-leaning bloggers:

Dan McLaughlin, Baseball Crank; Betsy Newmark, Betsy's Page; Bob Parks, Black And Right; Bookworm, Bookworm Room; D.S. Hube, The Colossus Of Rhodey; Bruce Carroll Jr., GayPatriot; Doug Lambert, GraniteGrok; Robert Miller, JoshuaPundit; Soren Dayton, The Next Right; Jon Henke, The Next Right; Walter Olson, Overlawyered; Daniel Pipes; Steven Taylor, PoliBlog; Debbie Hamilton, Right Truth; Rob Port, Say Anything; David Gerstman, Soccer Dad; Martin Solomon, Solomonia; David Kopel, The Volokh Conspiracy; Susan Duclos, Wake Up America