NJ: Every week Jim Barnes of National Journal magazine asks political insiders to weigh in on key issues and developments. This week 361 insiders from both parties were asked what they envisioned for Barack Obama's first year in office. Jim Barnes, thanks for joining us this week.

Barnes: Good to be with you, Dave.

NJ: Jim, what surprised you most when you waded through the answers to the questions you asked this week?

Barnes: Well, I think one of the interesting things was, we asked a question, what's going to be the smarter course for Obama in moving his legislative agenda through? Should he compromise only as much as necessary to win passage for his bills and measures, or should he compromise enough to win a significant number of Republicans to his side even if that's not necessary to actually pass the bill? And the Democrats, 60 percent of them, said just compromise as much as necessary. So while there's a sense that Obama's going to be this post-partisan president who's going to change Washington, these Democratic insiders are saying hey, we have got the majorities on Capitol Hill -- expanded majorities from the last election -- we should have the numbers to move this legislation through.

NJ: I'll tell you what surprised me: that insiders from both parties said liberal Democrats will cause Obama more trouble than conservative Republicans. Walk us through that one.

Barnes: Well, I think right there it's a sense of -- you know, that reflects a Democratic Party, I think, that is pretty confident. In other words, even a plurality of Democrats said that, so what they are saying is hey, we don't think we have to worry about the opposition party here. If we just keep all of our own folks in line we should be able to get a lot of work done.

I think, on the flip side, among Republicans it's a sense of a party that says we don't think we can stop him; we're not going to be the ones who are really going to cause this guy a lot of trouble. And I think that you do have a fair number of Republicans right now basically acknowledging, we are not sure that we really have the numbers to stop him; we're not so sure that we've got our act together, that we are really unified behind an agenda. And until the Republicans really get unified, I don't think they are going to be a force that is going to be able to just obstruct Obama and block the Democratic majorities in the Senate and the House.

NJ: As a candidate, Obama preached change at just about every opportunity. Can he really change the way Washington works?

Barnes: Well, that's a good question. You know, Washington is a very hard beast to tame, is what one of my insiders said. And that's also very interesting because when we asked the insiders, you know, how much change is Obama going to bring about -- is it a lot, a little -- a majority of Democrats actually said just a little bit. And I think Democrats aren't necessarily looking to change the way Washington works. As one of them said, what Obama needs to do is figure out a way to make Washington work for him. I think Democrats are of a mindset right now that we want to pass some key legislative initiatives early in Barack Obama's term. That's what we need to focus on -- let's focus on substance, not process issues like how does Washington work.

NJ: That brings to mind one notable comment I read from a Democrat, one of your Democratic insiders this week. He said you never get two honeymoons. Is there concern that President Obama will overreach or be tempted to overreach?

Barnes: Well, I think that that's what a lot of history suggests, and I think a lot of the insiders reflect on the overreach of Bill Clinton in 1993 and 1994, when his agenda was kind of overcharged -- he was taking on too many things. Some would say that the Republicans -- when they then took power in the 1994 midterms -- that the Republicans overreached, and some people feel that George W. Bush sort of had a "my way or the highway" kind of attitude. I think that the insiders feel, look, get a couple of key early victories, particularly around the economy, and then try to stretch that honeymoon out a little bit. So in other words, if you get a big score on the economy, then you say well, you know, that's not the only thing we need to do. We need to now tackle health care.

And ironically, Dave, I think the sense of almost crisis that everybody in Washington feels about, how is the economy going to come out of this financial calamity that we've had -- I think that works to Obama's advantage because I think people are going to be -- particularly some Republicans and the Democrats who may not be happy with him, you know, because he doesn't go far enough -- I think that there is a sense that Obama can use this crisis to really influence and shape things and pass things early on. I don't think people want to be in the position of blocking a president in a time of what many Americans perceive to be as a crisis.

NJ: Your National Journal colleague Brian Friel took a look at the Republican insiders. Is there a consensus among them about who should be the party's voice in 2009?

Barnes: Absolutely not. The consensus is there is no consensus. It's ironic that the Republican who got the highest percentage of votes -- only 11 percent, I might add -- was Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker, kind of a blast from the past, not exactly finding a fresh face. There are some Republicans, though, who do score very high -- people like Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana; Eric Cantor, an up-and-coming Republican in the House.

But I think that right now the Republicans are very much searching for a leader, searching for a message, and I think it's going to really -- it's going to take a while and it's going to be also, though, very interesting to see which Republicans emerge. I would say just one quick point: What's interesting is they don't necessarily look to their two leaders -- John Boehner in the House, Mitch McConnell in the Senate -- to be those leading voices. So I'm saying most of these Republicans seem to be looking for someone maybe outside of Washington.

NJ: Did Sarah Palin make the list?

Barnes: I think Sarah Palin got something like 1 percent of the vote, which is also kind of interesting. She clearly is a major heartthrob among a lot of grassroots conservatives, but I think that, you know, Republicans -- I think an awful lot of Republicans want to turn the page. And turning the page is not only about looking beyond who their congressional leaders are right now; I think it's also turning a page from the 2008 elections. So if we are looking down the road towards 2012, right now I think you'd say it's wide open.

NJ: Jim Barnes, National Journal correspondent and creator of the magazine's insiders poll, thanks for coming in.

Barnes: You're welcome, Dave.