NationalJournal.com
|
Search Sponsor:
|
ONLINE EXCLUSIVE
Chambliss Win Keeps Democrats Below 60
But The Tightness Of The Georgia Senate Race Signals That The GOP Can't Afford To Take The South For Granted
Democrats' hopes to reach the magic 60-vote majority in the Senate -- enough to shut down GOP-led filibusters -- were dashed last night when Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., easily won re-election in a runoff against former Democratic state legislator Jim Martin.
Democrats hold 58 Senate seats with just one race that still has not been called -- the Minnesota contest in which there is an ongoing recount and GOP Sen. Norm Coleman holds a slim lead over Democratic challenger Al Franken.
The results from the Peach State boosted Republican spirits at a time when they have suffered big setbacks in back-to-back Senate cycles, losing a total of at least 13 seats. Chambliss repeatedly made the pitch that it was important for Georgians to return him to Capitol Hill so that he could act as a "firewall" against the inevitable excesses that he said would flow from the combination of a Democratic president and huge Democratic majorities in the Senate and House.
"This race has been nationalized," Chambliss said in a victory statement amid raucous supporters Tuesday night. "People all around the world truly had their eyes on Georgia."
Emory University political scientist Merle Black, who has written prolifically about Southern politics, said in an interview before the runoff results were known that Chambliss's argument that Democrats must not have unfettered power resonated with Georgia voters. "It is a pretty powerful argument among conservative voters in Georgia," he said. "McCain beat Obama by 5 or 6 points here. Georgia is still a little more of a center-right state."
In contrast, Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry lost Georgia to President Bush by nearly 17 points in 2004. The president made no last-minute visit to stump for Chambliss, who did get a boost from visits by GOP luminaries including Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the defeated GOP presidential candidate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Meanwhile, Obama did not appear personally in Georgia during the runoff contest despite being invited by Martin. His presence on the general election ballot had resulted in a very large African-American turnout that topped 30 percent of the total votes cast. In the runoff, that turnout dropped considerably, as Obama confined himself to cutting a radio ad, taping an automated "robo-call" and sending field organizers to help in the campaign.
By not making a campaign visit, the president-elect avoided the hit in political capital that President-elect Bill Clinton suffered in 1992 when he campaigned for Sen. Wyche Fowler, D-Ga., who lost in a runoff against Paul Coverdell in 1992.
The implications of Chambliss' victory suggest that Obama may feel some added pressure to appeal to Republicans in the Senate as he advances a series of major initiatives, including his economic stimulus plan and sweeping health care reform proposal. Given the ever-looming threat of a filibuster, Obama will likely look to such GOP moderates as Maine Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins for help.
But the Chambliss contest also sends a political message to the GOP: Suddenly Republicans cannot take the South for granted. After all, just three months ago the 65-year-old Georgia senator seemed poised for an easy victory. Instead, he was forced to fight for his political life in a runoff against a little-known opponent.
Democrats will aggressively challenge other Southern Republican senators on the ballot in 2010. Indeed, rather than face a tough re-election battle, first-term Florida Republican Sen. Mel Martinez announced Tuesday that he would not run again in 2010. Democrats are likely to target his seat as well as three other Southern Republicans running in two years -- Jim Bunning of Kentucky, Richard Burr of North Carolina and David Vitter of Louisiana -- all of whom won 52 percent of the vote or less in their last campaigns.
"Party divisions in the South are much closer than they were before," said Black. "Bush's second term was a catastrophe for the Republican Party."